Copyright Joliet, IL Patch
As Democrats take a victory lap, Republicans are suing, and shockwaves are shooting through five districts now in danger of flipping. With the overwhelming passage of Proposition 50 in Tuesday's election, California Democrats are celebrating their plan to boost their party's representation in Congress — and counter similar efforts backed by President Donald Trump and Republicans in other states. Now, all eyes are on next year's election. Between now and then, voters can expect legal challenges to the new districts, epically expensive campaigns, and some midterm upsets. The California Republican Party on Wednesday filed a federal lawsuit challenging the passage of Prop 50, arguing that they improperly use race as a factor in drawing the districts. "We believe that Californians, no matter what color your skin is, no matter what your socio-economic background is, you deserve to be treated fair. You deserve to be treated equally," the party said in a statement, Fox 2 reported. 'I wouldn’t call them locks' Voters across the state will find themselves voting in newly drawn Congressional districts and participating in a political landscape that has shifted in response to those districts. The likely result will be far more nuanced than a solidly blue California Congressional delegation, experts say. Many voters are likely wondering what will be happening to their district, but "a lot of voters will have the exact same representative district," said Christian Grose, professor of political science and public policy at the University of Southern California. The new map "surgically targets" five district seats currently held by Republicans, Grose told Patch. That is where there will be “really dramatic changes,” he said. The new map was drawn by a group of Democratic consultants and then sent to the national Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The committee then sent the proposal to the state Legislature, which adopted the map as part of Prop 50, Cal Matters reported. California currently has nine Republicans in Congress. Under the new map, Democrats could win up to 48 of California's 52 U.S. House seats, though several districts are closely divided between Democratic and Republican voters. “Some of the Democratic districts are probably going to vote blue, but I wouldn’t call them locks,” said J. Miles Coleman, of the University of Virginia Center for Politics. "You could still have some expensive races,” Coleman added. How Prop. 50 Could Flip 5 Districts: Colleagues on a collision course The 41st District's Republican incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert has represented parts of Riverside County for over three decades, making him California's longest-serving Republican currently in the House. His district includes parts of the Coachella Valley, Corona and the Temecula Valley. Under Prop 50, cities in that district will be absorbed into a neighboring district that leans left. That forces the incumbent to make a choice. “Calvert’s district has been pulled apart. Does Ken Calvert decide to retire? Does he decide to move next door into (Orange County Republican) Rep. Young Kim’s district?," Grose said. Calvert is “strongly considering” running against Kim, Politico reported, citing an unnamed source close to the congressman. That potential situation is one example where the district shuffle could lead voters to be faced with a choice between two Republican incumbents — highlighting how Prop 50's impact has ripple effects outside the boundaries of newly drawn districts. Other impacts will be seen in districts that have had their boundaries modified — despite the fact that they were already solidly Democratic. The redrawn 41st District will now include Southeast Los Angeles County's Whittier — the hometown of Democratic Rep. Linda Sánchez, who currently represents the 38th District. That means Sánchez might run in the redrawn 41st District, leaving the 38th District without an incumbent. Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, a Democrat, plans to run for that seat, she wrote on her campaign website. The new 41st District will be a Latino majority district — one of 16 such districts under the new map, according to a report from Caltech and Cal Poly Pomona researchers. That's two more Latino-majority districts compared to the current map. The current map also has six "Latino-influence" districts. The new map will see the addition of two more such districts, the researchers found. "Latino voters are the largest minority group in California and are increasingly flexing voting power. Both the current map passed by the Commission and the Proposition 50 map reflect this Latino voting power in the state, though differential turnout between Latino voters and non-Latino voters in California plays a critical role in who gets elected and who is represented," they wrote. 'I'm not going anywhere' Rep. Darrell Issa's 48th District covers much of inland San Diego County, including Fallbrook, Escondido, Santee and Poway, along with Temecula and Murrieta. The redrawn 48th District will extend much farther north to include Menifee, Hemet and Palm Springs, a radical change from the current solidly Republican rural district. “It will create a dynamic where a Democratic candidate will be looking both to capture moderate voters, but also to galvanize voters in deep blue Palm Springs,” UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser told Cal Matters. Issa issued a defiant statement Tuesday, saying: “I'm not going anywhere. I'll continue to represent the people of California regardless of their party or where they live." The most challenging GOP district in the country Incumbent Rep. David Valadao has represented part of the Central Valley since 2012. His 22nd District includes most of Kings County, and some of Tulare and Kern counties, including part of Bakersfield. The district is currently the most Democratic-leaning one represented by a Republican in the country, Spectrum News 1 reported. Under the new map, the district shifts to cover portions of Tulare, Kern, Kings, and Fresno Counties, as well as a small part of Madera County, making it even more challenging terrain for the Republican incumbent. The seat has long been a target for Democrats, who have unsuccessfully poured money into campaigns to defeat Valadao. Valadao's margin of victories have been thin: In 2024, he held onto his seat by roughly 12,000 votes. Valadao has distanced himself from Trump, even voting once to impeach him after the Jan. 6 insurrection, perhaps one way he's been able to secure wins in a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans. This is one situation where “you’re going to end up in the new plan with fewer districts where Republicans would have a good shot,” Eric McGhee, policy director and senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California told the Desert Sun. 'I guess I have a lot of options' Incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley's district currently includes communities along the Nevada border: the northern Sierra Nevada to Death Valley, along with the northeastern suburbs of Sacramento. The new district will center around the Sacramento suburbs, stretching out to Lake Tahoe. The change will make it more appealing to Democratic candidates. On Tuesday night, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera announced his campaign for the 3rd District seat. He currently represents District 6. Former Democratic state senator Dr. Richard Pan will run for the 6th District seat, he announced this week. For his part, Kiley is not backing down — he's just not sure exactly what that will look like, given the fact that the area he currently serves will be split into six districts. “I guess I have a lot of options," Kiley told the Sacramento Bee of his plans to seek reelection 'One of the most blatant power grabs' First District incumbent Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who was first elected to Congress in 2012, represents a large portion of Northern California — from north of Sacramento up to the Oregon border, including Chico and Reading. The new map splits that area into three districts, mixing rural conservative voters in with more liberal cities. "I'm disappointed in tonight's results. Our constitution lost out to a pile of money and shameful deception, in one of the most blatant power grabs I've ever seen. Should these results stick, the imbalance in California between rural and urban voices will get that much worse, essentially silencing our portion of the state," LaMalfa wrote in a social media post Tuesday night.
