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SAN DIEGO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 2: A Chipotle logo is displayed outside their restaurant on August 2, 2025 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Kevin Carter/Getty Images) Getty Images Chipotle Mexican Grill stock (NYSE: CMG) crashed 18% yesterday, October 30, 2025, after the company reported its Q3 2025 earnings. For the third time this year, Chipotle cut its sales forecast due to weaker-than-expected comparable sales. Management attributed this disappointing performance to persistent macroeconomic pressures and a notable pullback in spending from its core customers, particularly the 25-to-35 age group. This single-day drop has extended CMG’s recent decline to 23.2% in under a month (falling from $42.36 on 10/21/2025 to a current price of $32.53). Given this sharp correction, the central question for investors is: Should you buy this dip? Buying a stock after a decline is a valid strategy, provided the company is a quality business with a history of bouncing back. It turns out that CMG stock meets basic quality criteria, having generated a median return of 94% over one year, and a peak return of 102% after experiencing sharp declines (>30% in 30 days) historically. For a brief overview, CMG offers fast-casual Mexican food with around 3,000 locations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe since 1993. For insights regarding stock fundamentals and evaluations: Read Buy or Sell Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock to gain a comprehensive view. MORE FOR YOU That being said, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock like CMG, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics. Historical Median Returns Post Dips Historical Median Returns Post Dips Historical Dip-Wise Details CMG has experienced 2 occurrences since 1/1/2010 when the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was breached 102% median peak return within 1 year of dip occurrence 350 days is the median duration to peak return following a dip -19% median maximum drawdown within 1 year of dip event Historical Dip-Wise Details Chipotle Mexican Grill Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks It is essential to assess revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and the strength of the balance sheet to mitigate the risk that a dip may signal a deteriorating business situation. CMG Basic Financial Quality Checks Investing in a single stock without comprehensive analysis can be risky. Consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics. Editorial StandardsReprints & Permissions
