By Contributor,Trefis Team

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BEIJING, CHINA – JULY 20, 2025 – Visitors are visiting the Micron booth at the 3rd China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo, Beijing, China, July 20, 2025. (Photo credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images)
CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is anticipated to announce its earnings on Tuesday, September 23, 2025. The earnings for this quarter are estimated to reach approximately $2.85 per share, rising from $1.18 per share in the same quarter last year, according to consensus estimates. Revenues are expected to be around $11 billion, marking a 43% increase year-over-year. This growth is likely fueled by the demand for AI infrastructure, which is enhancing sales of high-bandwidth memory products, commonly known as HBM. In Q3 FY’25, HBM revenue jumped nearly 50% quarter-over-quarter, elevating the business to a run rate of $6 billion annually.

The company currently holds a market capitalization of $152 billion. Over the past twelve months, revenue amounted to $34 billion, and the company operated profitably, reporting $7.6 billion in operating profits and a net income of $6.2 billion. A lot will depend on how the results compare against consensus estimates and expectations, but analyzing historical patterns may improve the odds in your favor if you are a trader focused on events. related Micron Stock At 10x Earnings: AI’s Best Bargain?

There are two methods to achieve this: by understanding the historical probabilities and positioning yourself ahead of the earnings release, or by examining the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns following earnings and adjusting your position accordingly after the earnings are disclosed. That said, if you are looking for upside with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfoliooffers an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.

Micron Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

There have been 19 earnings data points documented over the last five years, with 7 positive and 12 negative one-day (1D) returns noted. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred roughly 37% of the time.

Significantly, this percentage rises to 42% when we look at data from the last 3 years instead of 5.

Median of the 7 positive returns = 8.6%, while the median of the 12 negative returns = -4.2%

Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings are summarized with the statistics in the table below.

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1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A comparatively less risky approach (though less useful if the correlation is low) involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns subsequent to earnings, identifying a pair with the strongest correlation, and executing the relevant trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D demonstrate the highest correlation, a trader may adopt a “long” position for the following 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and following 5D returns.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns

Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (comprising all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), generating solid returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a smoother experience than an individual stock such as Micron Technology, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P and achieved >91% returns since its inception.

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