Copyright cleveland.com
CLEVELAND, Ohio — Many Browns fans have suggested that they throw the ball down the field more. I get it. The deep ball is part of the game and moves the offense farther downfield. Cleveland’s offense has done the opposite, and even holds the NFL’s fewest yards gained per completion (7.8) this season. The deep ball is a pass that travels 20 yards or more downfield, per Pro Football Focus. When Cleveland comes out of the bye week, rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel will have six deep pass attempts and one completion to his name, after four starts and two appearances in mop-up duty. So we will set out to answer a two-part question: Does Gabriel need to increase his deep shots to be successful? And, do deep shots help lead to team success in any way? More Cleveland Browns coverage What changes will the Browns make out of the bye week? Friday’s Sports 4 CLE What Travis Hunter’s injury means for the Browns’ 1st-round pick from the Jags in their draft-day trade: Mary Kay Cabot Just get your quarterback: Why solving the NFL’s hardest position is the Browns’ only path forward The current dilemma The Browns and deep passes have not been a successful combination this season. Two quarterbacks have suited up in the orange and brown this season: Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel. Flacco is in Cincinnati now, but in Cleveland, he completed 4 of his 18 deep pass attempts with three interceptions through four starts. Gabriel has completed 1 of 6 deep pass attempts with one interception, also through four starts so far. Why isn’t Gabriel allowed to throw it deep much? During his final college season at Oregon, not only did he tie for 22nd in deep-pass completions (23), but he also ranked third in completion percentage on deep passes (57.5%), per PFF. Theoretically, it could be his smaller frame that limits him from seeing his target downfield. Or, a lack of rollouts within the offense that would create space for Gabriel to make the pass. Either way, it limits the offense’s potential to gain yardage. Especially when you currently have 32 quarterbacks who’ve individually completed five or more deep-passes, per PFF. And yes, the list includes Flacco, who holds seven total on the season. Gabriel has fit in well with Cleveland’s preference for the quick passes, but he does tie for seventh in turnover-worthy plays (eight) among qualifying quarterbacks, per PFF. This overlaps with a couple other components of Gabriel’s play: time to throw and completed air yards, in particular. Time to throw relates to how quickly a quarterback can get rid of the ball. While completed air yards relates to how far downfield, in the air, the pass travels. Gabriel currently ranks 14th in fastest time to throw (2.73 seconds), but holds the fewest average completed air yards (3.2). It’s another indicator to how short and sweet the offense is. Cleveland moves the chains, but by one slim pull after another. Then again, the problems in the offense go deeper than whoever is in the pocket. Deep shots and winning Rookies and deep passes don’t always go hand in hand, for rookies are usually just worried about surviving. For comparison purposes, in the table below we’ll list the rookie quarterback who finished atop the deep pass completions category from each of the last 10 seasons (2015-24). This is via PFF, which tracks how many passes travel 20 or more yards downfield, along with the results and completion percentage. Next to that, we will list where the team they played for ranked in the NFL in terms of points per game and passing yards per game. Finally, the last column will display if their team made the playoffs that same year. Note: These totals only include the regular season. The results As seen above, many of the rookie quarterbacks who led their draft class in deep completions didn’t make the playoffs that season. Six of these quarterbacks finished below 40.0% on their deep passes. Seven of these quarterbacks didn’t see the playoffs that same season, but there’s something interesting about those who did: In three of the last four seasons, the rookie quarterback that led his draft class in deep-shot completions got postseason action in the same year. The 2025 Rookies There are seven quarterbacks from the 2025 draft class who have seen action. Gabriel’s six deep-pass attempts is a low amount, but is currently the third most from this rookie class, per PFF. The Titans’ Cam Ward and Giants’ Jaxson Dart have been the only ones starting and getting the deep shots off. Ward leads the class in deep-pass completions (10) and attempts (26), while also throwing for one touchdown and two interceptions. Dart is behind Ward in deep-pass completions (7) and attempts (25), while throwing for one score and one pick. The Titans and Giants have a combined record of 3-13 through Week 8. Conclusion In the last few years, rookie quarterbacks who’ve led the league in deep shots have made the playoffs more often than not. Cleveland holds a record of 2-6, and their playoff chances are slim. But even if the playoffs are not within reach, increasing Gabriel’s deep pass rate would at least tell us more about his ability to complete passes downfield.
