The start to Bo Nix’s sophomore campaign hasn’t been pretty, even as his teammates scoff at the notion that he lost his team a game in Los Angeles.
The Broncos quarterback ranks 26th out of 31 qualified NFL QBs in yards per attempt. He has the worst passer rating in the league on throws between 10 and 19 yards, and also has the worst passer rating in the league when pressured (8.3!).
The tape, though, shows Nix still putting himself in positions for success through clear offensive dysfunction around him. If Troy Franklin hadn’t pushed off and dropped a wide-open end-zone slant from Nix in the fourth quarter, the quarterback’s day against the Chargers (14 of 25, 153 yards, a touchdown, no interceptions) looks completely different. But Nix has often complicated matters for himself with inconsistent mechanics.
The Denver Post studied every Nix drop-back against the Chargers on Sunday for the first installment of the “Bo Nix Index.” The weekly series will aim to dissect the intricacies of each performance from the Broncos’ franchise quarterback. Let’s dive in with four standout takeaways:
1. Less drift, more drive
Nix’s quarterback trainers work with him extensively during the offseason on a concept they call “mechanical resiliency” —eliminating bad habits that only emerge when he’s under duress.
“Step one is to get it to where you can have, let’s say, more front-side stability — with a clean pocket, nobody’s in your face,” longtime Nix trainer Ben Neill said this spring. “And then it’s like, ‘Okay, can you do it with a distraction? Or can you do it in a more contested environment? And then can you do it even in a more chaotic environment?’ ”
On Sunday, one of Nix’s most obvious misses came within one of those chaotic environments. Sean Payton cooked up a gimmick to beat a common Chargers defensive formation with two safeties deep downfield, turning an inside draw to J.K. Dobbins into a flea-flicker back to Nix. The two safeties bit so hard that Nix had two options streaking uncovered in Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims Jr. But the flea-flicker carried Nix far back enough in the pocket that Chargers outside linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu was able to generate pressure off right tackle Mike McGlinchey.
Nix stepped up back into a clean pocket — and then kept stepping up. Rather than plant and drive off his back foot, he let a deep ball go while his forward momentum carried him into his offensive line. A potential 63-yard touchdown to a wide-open Mims sailed long.
It’s a habit that showed up even on Nix’s best reps Sunday. Take a 13-yard strike to Courtland Sutton on a comebacker early in the second quarter. Nix again stepped up and fired for a completion despite having little front-side stability. He can be brilliant throwing on the move, but sometimes enters the danger zone when he’s unable to adjust his own momentum.
2. Nix’s eye manipulation is key
Nix had significantly more success Sunday when he was able to make quick, but less-obvious, reads with his eyes. Early in the fourth quarter, with the Broncos needing a conversion on fourth-and-1, Nix rolled out after a play-action fake and glanced toward RJ Harvey flaring out of the backfield, then quickly pivoted deeper to Sutton for a 22-yard gain.
On the flip side, Nix had a couple of reads against the Chargers where he stared too-obvious daggers into his primary reads. On a third-and-12 early in the second quarter, Nix climbed the pocket and — with no other target open — locked on to Sutton on a deep out for two full seconds.
Chargers corner Benjamin St. Juste watched Nix’s eyes the entire way, broke on the pass, and knocked it away easily.
3. Sean Payton right about Nix’s environment
In staunchly shrugging off Nix’s missed deep balls, Payton pointed to a slew of unenviable third-and-long situations that his quarterback encountered Sunday. It was a “hard day to play quarterback,” the Broncos’ head coach said on Monday.
In part, that was due to breakdowns in protection that often sent Nix scattering before routes had a chance to develop. He was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks against the Chargers, a drastic change from two straight games with a sub-20% pressure rate against the Titans and Colts. Still, Los Angeles sacked Nix just twice — and one of them was because nose tackle Teair Tart clearly jumped early.
Nix’s shaky protection largely didn’t seem his fault, either. On a second down in Denver’s two-minute drill before the half, Nix clearly gestured at his offensive line to pick up a free lane against a Chargers front that showed blitz. Dobbins, in the backfield, came over to help center Luke Wattenberg with Los Angeles ILB Troy Dye, but that left the Tarheeb Still home free on a nickel blitz. Nix had to throw it away and tossed his hands up after getting up from the turf.
In total, three of Nix’s 11 incompletions Sunday came on virtual throwaways amid protection breakdowns. That brings us, importantly, to a final point.
4. Where’s the playmaking over the middle?
Nix’s passing chart from Week 3 seemed to indicate a good portion of his successful work came over the middle of the field.
The film told a different story.
Know why Nix stared holes into Sutton on that aforementioned third-and-12? Because Troy Franklin was blanketed over the middle of the field. Know why Nix stared holes again into Marvin Mims Jr. on another second-quarter incompletion to the sidelines? Because Franklin was again blanketed over the middle of the field. Nix tucked it and ran a couple of times against the Chargers before letting routes develop, but the quarterback was 4 of 9 for 33 yards when pressured Sunday in large part because he had no safety valve underneath.
Evan Engram’s absence in Week 3 certainly hurt in that regard. But the Broncos also didn’t run a lot of concepts in that vein.