By Ruth Mosalski

Copyright walesonline

Labour could slump to its worst ever performance in a Senedd election, new polling has suggested. Results of a poll released today (September 16) suggests the party, which has been in power in Cardiff Bay for the 26 years of devolved politics, would get just 14% of the vote in May’s Senedd election, its worst ever performance. The polling, released by ITV Cymru Wales/Barn Cymru, puts Plaid Cymru and Reform UK almost equally matched with just 1% between them. In terms of seats, Plaid could take 38 of the 96 seats, with Reform UK in second with 37. Labour would be trailing in third with just 11. It also projects the Green Party would take its first ever Senedd seat and the Lib Dems would go from one seat currently to three. The Conservatives would slump from being the official opposition to being the fourth party, with six seats. At the last Senedd election in 2021, Labour got 40% of the vote. Plaid got 20%. Reform UK got 2% of the vote but did not see any of its candidates elected. This polling shows Plaid would get 30% of the votes, Reform UK would get 29% and Labour would get 14%. That is a 4% drop on equivalent polling just five months ago. Pollsters YouGov asked 1,232 people a series of questions between September 4 and 10 and it shows a truly massive potential change in Welsh politics. The Senedd will expand from the current 60 members to 96 in May, with changes to boundaries and the actual way people vote too. Instead of two votes, one for their constituency and one for their region, as is the case now, people will get one vote. It means there are lots of unknowns about the projected results, but this poll is the latest which shows Plaid and Reform in the lead. The polling provides vote share in percentages, and while it is possible to look then project what that could mean in terms of seats parties would win, it is important to note that under the new system, even a tiny change could result in changes to the way seats in the Senedd will be divided. Dr Jac Larner, an academic at Wales Governance Centre has given his seat projection based on this poll. Labour: 29 seats Conservative: 14 seats Plaid Cymru : 12 seats Liberal Democrat : One seat Reform UK: One seat Independent : Two seats The death of Hefin David means that seat is currently vacant and a by-election is being held in Caerphilly on October 23. Labour: 11 seats Conservative: 6 seats Plaid Cymru : 38 seats Liberal Democrat : Three seats Reform UK: 37 seats Green Party : One seat Dr Jac Larner, from Cardiff University’s Welsh Governance Centre said: “This latest ITV Wales poll confirms a trend leading into next year’s Senedd election: the contest for the largest party is becoming a neck-and-neck battle between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. With Plaid holding steady at 30% and Reform increasing to 29% (+4), these two parties now lead the field, while Labour trails at 14% (-4) and the Conservatives sit at 11% (-2). The numbers suggest a realignment in Welsh politics, with traditional powerhouses no longer assured of their historical positions. “The data reveals telling patterns of voter movement across the political spectrum. Plaid Cymru’s support has remained relatively stable over recent months with previous Labour converts sticking with their new choice, suggesting the party has successfully consolidated earlier gains. “Reform UK’s growth is built primarily on Conservative defections, with most of their support coming from previous Tory voters, alongside a smaller but notable number of former Labour supporters. Labour, meanwhile, is losing voters on multiple fronts – primarily to Plaid and the Greens, but also to a lesser extent to Reform – indicating broader challenges in holding together their traditional coalition. “While Reform isn’t capturing the bulk of Labour’s lost support, even these smaller defections are contributing to Labour’s decline.” He said no party appears to be in a position to get a majority so “post-election coalition building appears inevitable”. “The numbers currently favour a Plaid Cymru-led administration, given their potential alignment with Labour, Liberal Democrats , and Greens on policy grounds. However, continued Labour decline could leave even this natural partnership with only narrow working majorities. “For Reform, their success in attracting Conservative voters creates a strategic puzzle: as they continue to draw from the Tory base, they may find themselves with insufficient Conservative allies to form an alternative government, while their vote becomes less efficiently distributed within constituencies.” This polling makes the by-election currently taking place in Caerphilly even more interesting. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here