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Arguably the most anticipated AFC matchup of the entire 2025 NFL season is finally here with three-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes' Kansas Chiefs (5-3) heading to Orchard Park to face 2024 NFL MVP quarterback Josh Allen's Buffalo Bills (5-2) on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, live stream on Paramount+). The last time these two teams went toe-to-toe in the 2024 AFC Championship game, the football world witnessed an epic duel. Kansas City barely escaped with a 32-29 victory after kicker Harrison Butker drilled the go-ahead field goal with 3:33 left to play and Allen threw an incompletion on fourth-and-5 with two minutes left to play. We're analyzing the 10th matchup between Allen and Mahomes from nearly every conceivable angle here at CBSSports.com, and one of those ways is with our tale-of-the-tape-style breakdown. This will highlight which team has the advantage at each and every position group. It will certainly be close considering the two teams have been separated by just a single point across the last nine meetings with the Chiefs ahead 243 to 242. Allen's Bills have a 4-1 edge in the regular season while Mahomes' Chiefs have a 4-0 record in the series in the postseason. Enough fanfare, let's dive into our position-by-position breakdown. Prisco's Week 9 NFL picks: Bills cool off red-hot Chiefs in classic shootout, Texans upset Broncos Pete Prisco Quarterback Both Mahomes and Allen are playing high-level, dual-threat football that ranks among the NFL's best. That's not a surprise. Their overall numbers are actually quite similar this season with Mahomes co-leading the league in passing touchdowns (17) along with Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford while Allen co-leads all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns (five) this season along with Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen QB ranks, this seasonMahomesAllen Comp Pct 67% (14th) 68% (11th) Pass YPG 262.4 (4th) 222.86 (18th) Pass TD 17 (T-1st) 12 (T-14th) TD-INT 17-4 (10th) 12-4 (T-13th) Passer Rating 103.1 (10th) 103.6 (9th) Rush Yards 280 (2nd) 261 (3rd) Rush TD 4 (T-3rd) 5 (T-1st) Total TD 21 (1st) 17 (T-4th) Where Mahomes is separating himself from Allen and every other quarterback in the NFL this season is his work while scrambling outside of the pocket. The two-time league MVP leads the NFL with 51 total first downs (33 passing and 18 rushing) outside the pocket, which are 18 more than the next closest quarterback. Mahomes is also averaging 84.0 passing yards per game outside the pocket this season, the highest rate by any quarterback in a season since he entered the league in 2017. Mahomes' magic is back. Patrick Mahomes Outside The Pocket, This SeasonNFL Rank Pass YPG 84.0* 3rd Passing First Downs 33 1st Rushing First Downs 18 1st Total First Downs 51** 1st * Highest rate by any QB in a season since Mahomes entered the NFL in 2017 ** 18 more than second-best QB (Justin Herbert) Advantage: Chiefs Running back Buffalo Bills running James Cook is fresh off producing 216 yards on the ground in a Week 8 win against the Carolina Panthers, which ranks as the most rushing yards by any player in a game this season. What's remarkable about that figure is he didn't play in the fourth quarter, making his 216-yard effort the best by any player in a game without a fourth quarter carry in the last 35 seasons, per CBS Sports Research. Cook also leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (107.6) and yards per carry (6.0) this season. Cook's 753 yards rushing in 2025 are the second-most in the NFL behind only Jonathan Taylor's 850. Meanwhile, the Chiefs' run game is struggling: Kansas City ranks 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (81.1) and yards per carry (3.9) among running backs this season. Neither Isiah Pacheco (329 yards rushing) nor Kareem Hunt (245 yards rushing) are anywhere close to Cook's production. Advantage: Bills Pass catchers Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice's 2025 NFL season began in Week 7 after he served a six-game suspension for his role in a hit-and-run incident that occurred in Dallas in March of 2024. Since returning to action, Rice has made up for lost time by racking up 135 yards receiving and three receiving touchdowns on 16 catches the last two weeks. Only reigning 2024 receiving triple crown winner Ja'Marr Chase, with 28 catches, has more catches than Rice since his season debut in Week 7. Rice's three receiving touchdowns are also tied for the most in the NFL in the last two weeks. Combine that recent production with wide receiver Xavier Worthy's speed and future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce's reliability, and Kansas City has a solid trio of pass catchers for Mahomes to throw to. Meanwhile, Bills quarterback Josh Allen is averaging the shortest average pass length in the NFL when targeting wide receivers this season, 9.1 yards. Bills wide receiver Keon Coleman erupted with 95 yards receiving in the fourth quarter of Week 1, but he only has 172 yards receiving the rest of 2025. Buffalo wide receiver Khalil Shakir has compiled the second-most yards after catch (819) among wide receivers across the last two seasons behind only Ja'Marr Chase's 1,143. However, the depth behind Shakir just isn't there like it is for Kansas City at the moment. Advantage: Chiefs Offensive line Both the Chiefs (30.3% quarterback pressure rate allowed, third-best in the NFL) and the Bills (30.3% quarterback pressure rate allowed, third-best in the NFL) and the Bills (33.1% quarterback pressure rate allowed, fifth-best in the NFL) are two of the top pass protecting teams in the league. The differentiator here is on the ground: Buffalo leads the league in rushing offense (164.4 rushing yards per game), and the Bills rank second in the NFL in yards per carry (5.2). Advantage: Bills Defensive line Both Buffalo (43.8% quarterback pressure rate, second-best in the NFL) and Kansas City (41.1% quarterback pressure rate, fifth-best in the NFL) can get after the quarterback. The difference is the Chiefs still have All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones in the middle of their defensive line while the Bills lost defensive tackle Ed Oliver to a torn biceps injury on Sunday. Jones leads all defensive tackles in both sacks (42.) and quarterback pressures (318) across the last five seasons. Advantage: Chiefs Linebackers Bills linebacker Shaq Thompson is Pro Football Focus' highest-graded linebacker in this matchup with a 78.8 PFF defensive grade, the 10th-best in the NFL at the position. However, Kansas City has two linebackers graded higher than the next closest Buffalo linebacker in Drue Tranquill (75.7 PFF defensive grade, 13th among linebackers) and Leo Chenal (74.2 PFF defensive grade, tied for 19th among linebackers). Advantage: Chiefs Secondary The Bills (161.9 passing yards per game allowed, second-best in the NFL) and the Chiefs (177.8 passing yards per game allowed, third-best in the NFL) are two of the best in the NFL at defending against the pass. Passer rating isn't a perfect statistic, but it factors in completion percentage, passing yards, passing touchdowns and interceptions to come up with its aggregate total. Kansas City (88.6 passer rating allowed, 12th in the NFL) narrowly edges Buffalo (89.4 passer rating allowed, 13th in the NFL) there. Led by 2024 second team All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, the best defensive back in this matchup, the Chiefs have the edge here. Advantage: Chiefs Kicking The NFL is very much a what have you done for me lately league. Yes, Chiefs three-time Super Bowl champion kicker Harrison Butker's 88.2% career field goal percentage is the fifth-best in NFL history. However, Butker hasn't played his typical level of football through eight games this season. He's the only kicker in the NFL with three missed field goals (12 for 15 on field goals) and three missed extra points (22 for 25 on extra points) this season. His Bills counterpart in Matt Prater may not have the same kick power as he once did at the age of 41-years-old, but he does have the most made field goals of 50 yards or deeper in NFL history with 82. Prater has also been more accurate than Butker this year, drilling 12 of his 13 field goals in 2025. Give the old guy the advantage at this moment in time. Advantage: Bills Overall edge: Chiefs (five) over Bills (three)
