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A series of exit polls released after the conclusion of voting on Wednesday project a commanding victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the Bihar assembly elections, with one analyst predicting a near two-thirds majority.According to Praja Poll Analytics, the NDA is forecast to win a staggering 186 seats in the 243-member assembly, far surpassing the 122 needed for a majority. The poll places the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) at just 50 seats, with others securing 7.This optimistic projection for the ruling alliance is reflected, though with a narrower range, in a consensus across other major polling agencies. A compilation of various exit polls shows the NDAs seat tally is expected to fall between 133 and 167, all pointing towards a clear majority. The Mahagathbandhan is projected to secure between 70 and 103 seats.High Voter Turnout RecordedThe electoral battle unfolded over two phases, with the first on November 6 recording a voter turnout of 65.08 per cent. The second phase on November 11 saw a slightly higher participation of 67.14 per cent (as of 5 PM). The counting of votes is scheduled for November 14, when the Election Commission will declare the official results. Poll Diary Forecast Big Margin In Bihar: NDA Set for Landslide Win with 184 ndash;209 Seats, MGB StrugglesThe Stakes and the AlliancesThe high-stakes election will determine the political fate of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who is seeking to retain power under the NDA banner, and Tejashwi Yadav of the RJD, who is aiming to lead the Mahagathbandhan back to government.The NDAs seat-sharing arrangement saw the BJP and JD(U) contesting 101 seats each. They were joined by the LJP (Ram Vilas) in 29 constituencies, and the HAM(S) and RLM in six each.The opposition Mahagathbandhan fielded candidates with the RJD contesting 143 seats, the Congress in 61, and smaller left parties and the VIP making up the rest.Polling AgencyNDA ProjectionMahagathbandhan (MGB) ProjectionJSP ProjectionOthers ProjectionPraja Poll Analytics18650-7Matrize147 - 16770 - 90510Peoples Pulse133 - 15975 - 1010 - 52 - 8Dainik Bhaskar145 - 16073 - 91-5 - 10Peoples Insight133 - 14887 - 1020 - 23 - 6JVC135 - 15088 - 103-3 - 7P-Marq142 - 16280 - 981 - 40 - 3A History of Inaccurate ForecastsDespite the strong projections for the NDA, political observers are urging caution, pointing to the notoriously unpredictable nature of Bihars politics and the history of erroneous exit polls.In the 2020 assembly polls, most major exit polls, including those from India Today-Axis My India and Todays Chanakya, had predicted a victory for the Mahagathbandhan. The actual results, however, saw the NDA secure a narrow majority with 125 seats, defeating the MGB, which won 110. The RJD, nonetheless, emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats.This precedent serves as a stark reminder that while exit polls provide an early indicator of voter sentiment, they are not definitive forecasts. The final verdict rests solely with the voters, whose decision will be revealed on November 14.
