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This week's Tuesday NBA doubleheader on NBC/Peacock is once again strong (though I doubt I'm alone in wishing Warriors-Thunder was getting the primetime treatment). 76ers (6-4) at Celtics (5-6) -- 8 p.m. (all times ET) Nuggets (7-2) at Kings (3-7) -- 11 p.m. Elsewhere, Golden State and Oklahoma City meet at 8 p.m. in a possible Western Conference playoff preview. Tonight's slate also includes Toronto at Brooklyn, Memphis at New York and Indiana at Utah. Below, I'll explain why I like the following bets: 1️⃣ Nuggets Team Total Over 125.5 (-110 at DraftKings) 2️⃣ Nikola Jokic 11+ Assists (-102 at DraftKings) 3️⃣ Raptors Team Total Over 121.5 (-110 at FanDuel) Best Bets (Player Props, ATS Picks) For November 11 1️⃣: Nuggets Team Total Over 125.5 (-110 at DraftKings) The matchup: Nuggets (-8.5) at Kings (11 p.m., NBC/Peacock) The NBA regular-season schedule offers few "sure things." That being said, I'd be shocked to see the Kings hold up defensively for 48 minutes tonight against the Nuggets, whose offensive rating of 123.12 is the second-highest in the NBA. Denver is also fresh, with three days' rest since Saturday's win over the Pacers improved its record to 7-2. Nikola Jokic is averaging an absurd 11.9 assists per game (which comfortably leads the league), as Denver's upgraded bench and supporting cast have more than lived up to the hype so far. Read More The Kings are not only 3-7, but they're coming off back-to-back ugly losses. There's little reason to expect them to keep Denver's high-flying offense in check tonight. Sacramento's last two opponents -- the Thunder (on Nov. 7) and the Timberwolves (on Nov. 9) -- scored a combined 276 (!) points. Both OKC and Minnesota also posted effective shooting percentages of over 60 percent and offensive ratings of 126 or higher. And we've already gotten one glimpse of how the Sacramento defense holds up (or doesn't) vs. this version of Jokic and Co. The Nuggets won 130-124 when these teams met on November 3 in Denver. Denver was credited with 33 assists on 50 made field goals that night, and it scored 130 points despite shooting just 12-of-38 (31.6 percent) from 3-point land. 2️⃣Nikola Jokic 11+ Assists (-102 at DraftKings) Did we mention how insane Jokic's numbers as a passer have been this season (even by his lofty standards)? Jokic has finished seven of nine games this year with at least 10 dimes. He's also already recorded 14 or more assists four times (in only nine games) To put that in context, last year, Jokic finished with the second-most assists in the league (10.2), but he had 14 or more just 12 times in 70 regular-season games. The addition of Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown has given Denver just what it hoped when it acquired those players. And Aaron Gordon's remarkable improvement from outside (he's a career 33 percent 3-point shooter, but he's making 46.3 percent of his 5.1 3PA per game this year) has been massive for this offense. One of the most impressive aspects of Denver's success to date is the fact that it has come despite a cold start to the season by Cam Johnson. The former Net, a career 38.9 percent 3-point shooter, has made just 23.5 percent of his 3-pointers as a Nugget. If and when Johnson rediscovers his touch, the Nuggets could become that much tougher to stop -- and Jokic could pad his already-substantial lead on Cade Cunningham (9.9 apg) as the league's assists leader. Whether Johnson gets hot tonight or not, I love Jokic's chances of reaching 11 assists. Remember, he recorded 14 vs. the Kings on November 3 despite Denver shooting just 31.6 percent from 3 that night (well below its season average of 34.8 percent from downtown). 3️⃣Raptors Team Total Over 121.5 (-110 at FanDuel) The matchup: Raptors (-10.5) at Nets (7:30 p.m.) Let's wrap up tonight's card with another play on a team to go over its team total. So far this year, it's not hyperbole to call the young Brooklyn Nets (1-9) a historically bad defensive squad. In addition to allowing 125.5 points per game, Brooklyn's defensive rating of 127.07 is easily the worst in the NBA right now. That figure is even worse than the defensive ratings posted by the worst defensive team in the league each of the last two years, the Jazz. Through 10 games, the Raptors (5-5) have hardly been an offensive juggernaut, but it's worth noting that their adjusted offensive rating (which takes into account the quality of opposing defenses) is No. 10 in the NBA at 118.15 -- just ahead of both the Spurs and Thunder. If advanced metrics like offensive ratings (points per 100 possessions) aren't your thing, let's just focus on the fact that the Nets have allowed 7 of their first 10 opponents to score at least 125 points. Newsweek may earn an affiliate commission if you sign up through any links in this article. See the sportsbook operator's terms and conditions for important details. Sports betting operators have no influence over newsroom coverage.
