The beauty of the NFL is that in almost every matchup, just about anything can happen.
That’s why teams are so rarely favored by more than a touchdown. Unfortunately, not every game is evenly matched, though.
Tonight’s Dolphins vs. Bills clash on Thursday Night Football is a great example, as the Bills are 12.5-point favorites and listed at -850 on the moneyline, giving them an implied 89 percent chance to win.
The only other game this season where the favorite was laying 12 points or more took place Sunday in Baltimore, where the Ravens comfortably covered as 12.5-point favorites in a 41-17 blowout.
What that means for betting player prop markets tonight is that backups, especially for Buffalo, could get more work than usual. The high likelihood that the Bills will have a lead for most of this game also means that we will probably see a higher-than-usual volume of rushing attempts for Buffalo and passing attempts for the Dolphins.
R. Davis o23.5 Rush Yds (-112 at FD) — 1u
The top backup to Bills starting running back James Cook, Ray Davis, is primed for a big night if Buffalo jumps out to a big lead early.
Last week, Davis get plenty of touches vs. the Jets in a game the Bills led 20-3 at halftime. Unfortunately, he wasn’t terribly productive, turning nine carries into just 24 yards.
While Davis is no lock to get that many carries tonight, it is worth noting that last year as a rookie, in four games with nine carries or more, Davis finished each of those contests with at least 29 yards rushing. That included a 9-carry, 29-yard effort vs. Miami in a Week 2 blowout.
It also helps Cook, Davis and anyone else who might get carries tonight that so far this year, the Dolphins have struggled against the run. After allowing 156 yards on the ground to the Colts in Week 1 — Indy starter Jonathan Taylor picked up 71 yards on 18 carries, and rookie fifth-round RB D.J. Giddens 41 more rushing yards on 12 carries — the Fins gave up 122 yards rushing to the Patriots in Week 2.
In that one, NE starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson, QB Drake Maye and backup RB Antonio Gibson all ran for at least 27 yards, and each had one run of at least 13 yards. Miami also gave up at least one rush of at least 11 yards to four different Colts ball carriers in Week 1.
If Miami’s habit of giving up long runs continues this week, Davis might only need a handful of attempts to clear this line.
De’Von Achane o39.5 Rec. Yds (-112 at FD) — 1u
One player who should see a ton of action as both a receiver and a runner — regardless of the score — is the Dolphins’ versatile third-year running back, De’Von Achane.
He’s been a fantasy darling since his rookie year, and he looks poised for another big season based on his role in Weeks 1 and 2. His over/under for receptions in this game is set at 5.5. That is a great sign that he’ll see plenty of targets in the passing game.
Achane picked up 55 yards on the ground on just seven carries vs. the Colts in Week 1, and he added three catches for 20 yards and a touchdown.
He was even busier in Week 2, with 11 rushes for 30 carries, plus 10 (!) targets as a receiver. After turning those 10 targets into eight catches for 92 yards and a TD, he should once again be one of QB Tua Tagovailoa’s primary targets this evening.
With or without the rest of the Dolphins’ supporting cast, Achane would likely be a magnet for targets going forward. But with tight end Darren Waller out and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle questionable tonight, Achane and Tyreek Hill are both poised to play huge roles vs. the Bills.
Yet another reason to like Achane as a receiver tonight is the absence of Buffalo linebacker Matt Milano.
One final note in Achane’s favor is how he performed as a receiver in two matchups vs. the Bills in 2024:
Achane rec. stats vs. BUF (Week 2, ’24): 7 targets, 7 catches, 69 yards, 1 TD
Achane rec. stats vs. BUF (Week 9, ’24): 8 targets, 8 catches, 58 yards, 1 TD
And don’t forget that back in ’23, one of Achane’s first big games as a pro came against the Bills, when he went off for 101 yards and 2 TDs on just eight carries and added three catches for 19 yards.
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