By Jake Evans
Copyright abc
Australia will vow to cut its emissions by 62 to 70 per cent by 2035, lifting its sights further as the world strives to reach net zero emissions by 2050.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the government had listened to the Climate Change Authority’s advice.
“It’s the right target to protect our environment, to protect and advance our economy and jobs, and to ensure that we act in our national interest and in the interest of this and future generations,” Mr Albanese said.
“It’s based upon the science, and it is independent advice to the government.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government had modelled the economic impacts of a 65 per cent 2035 target, saying it would lead to a larger economy and higher wages than if the country failed to act.
Treasury modelling suggests real wages would be 2.5 per cent higher in 2050 and real GDP per person $2,100 higher than if there was no target to reduce emissions.
“Under a disorderly transition, there would be lower wages and higher electricity prices,” Mr Chalmers said.
Emissions have fallen by about 27 per cent since the baseline year of 2005, and the department previously projected emissions to fall by 51 per cent by 2035.
New measures flagged alongside 2035 target
The Albanese government’s next major climate commitment will require a significant increase in ambition.
Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean signalled the government would have to pedal faster now to reach its 2035 target, saying emissions would have to be effectively halved this decade.
Mr Albanese on Thursday afternoon committed an additional $2 billion to boost the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and a new $5 billion “Net Zero Fund” under the government’s National Reconstruction Fund to assist industrial facilities to decarbonise and scale up renewables.
A Net Zero Plan released alongside the 2035 target spells out further measures the government could pursue to reach its 2035 target.
The government has signalled possible tightening of both its Safeguards Mechanism and the New Vehicle Efficiency Standard, and the exploration of carbon tariffs on imports to Australia.
In its advice, the CCA said reaching even 62 per cent reductions would require an enormous quadrupling of wind capacity, tripling of large-scale solar and doubling of rooftop solar.
It would also require extending the Safeguard Mechanism, ceasing old-growth logging and for half of vehicles sold between now and 2035 to be electric, it said.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said the energy transition presented Australia with an economic opportunity — if it gets it right.
“Today the Albanese government decided to seize that opportunity,” Mr Bowen said.
Climate Change Authority chair Matt Kean said the agency recommended a target range in order to be flexible to global uncertainty.
“This is a range I am hopeful we can over-achieve on,” Mr Kean said.
“We have done extensive analysis … we have looked at providing a target that will future-proof our industries, future-proof our economy, and future-proof our way of life and the planet.
Mr Bowen said the range reflected uncertainty over how technologies could change in 10 years, and how ambitious each state and territory’s own climate commitments would be.
Politicians, climate groups, businesses react
Green groups have reacted with disappointment at a target that does not set 70 per cent as a floor of ambition.
The Australian Conservation Foundation derided the target as “timid”, and the Smart Energy Council said while 62 to 70 per cent was a signal that Australia was “serious” about tackling climate pollution, 70 per cent should be considered the minimum ambition.
Mr Bowen said the government had gone for the highest level of ambition that was achievable.
The target will be submitted at a United Nations meeting next week, where other world leaders will also commit updated targets.
But the figure will be expected to disappoint some climate groups, who had asked for a target of at least 70 per cent to have any chance of keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Business groups warned against a target over 70, saying it would threaten hundreds of billions of dollars in export value.
Australian Industry Group chief executive Innes Willox said reaching a 62 to 70 per cent target would be challenging.
“While it is not straightforward to achieve, it is also in the realm of the feasible – with hard work and a tight focus on making Australia a place where it is easy to invest and to build,” Mr Willox said.
“We should not spend the next ten years arguing about this target range. We should get on with sensible measures that make it ever more achievable.”
Greens leader Larissa Waters accused the government of “capitulation” to coal and gas companies, saying it would not be enough to prevent the worst of the catastrophes forecast in the government’s National Climate Risk Assessment.
That report warned that if global warming rose above 3C, it would lead to significant sea level rise, more frequent and intense natural disasters, and worsening heatwaves and disease.
