The primetime battle between Illinois and Indiana is the main event in college football this weekend, but No. 22 Auburn’s trip to No. 11 Oklahoma at 3:30 p.m. EDT is a tremendous afternoon undercard.
The biggest storyline in this game is former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold’s return to Norman, where he started his career before transferring to Auburn this past offseason after a trying 2024 campaign.
That’s hardly the only intriguing plot line in Auburn vs. Oklahoma, though. Both head coaches — Brent Venables at Oklahoma and Hugh Freeze at Auburn — are in make-or-break campaigns, but they have the quarterbacks in place to have their biggest seasons yet.
The highly-touted Arnold is off to a strong start to his Auburn tenure, while Oklahoma’s John Mateer is climbing up the Heisman Trophy oddsboards after arriving in Norman following a phenomenal season at Washington State in 2024.
How To Watch Auburn Tigers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. EDT
TV: ABC
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Odds: Spread, ML, Total
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Betting News, Analysis
Oddsmakers currently see both of these teams as second-tier contenders in the SEC after Georgia, Texas, Alabama and LSU, but the fact that both are +300 or shorter to make the College Football Playoff tells us they’re for real.
Oklahoma is the more tested team after taking on No. 21 Michigan in Week 2, though Auburn boasts a solid nonconference win of its own. In Week 1, the Tigers took down a good Baylor team on the road, as Arnold gashed the Bears for 137 yards on just 16 carries in a 38-24 win.
Auburn Tigers Betting News, Outlook
Record: 3-0
SEC winner odds (FD): +1900
Odds to make CFP (FD): +270
Jackson Arnold Heisman Trophy odds: +2000 at DK; +2500 at FD; +2000 at bet365
Freeze entered this season on the hot seat, but Arnold could make this offense hum after it struggled with Payton Thorne under center the last two years.
The Tigers lost RB Jarquez Hunter from last year’s squad, but Auburn’s deep at receiver, though Cam Coleman, Malcolm Simmons and Georgia Tech transfer Eric Singleton Jr. have been quiet so far this season.
Between Arnold (192 yards rushing and 4 touchdowns) and Jeremiah Cobb (46 carries for 318 yards), the Tigers’ ground game has been potent to start the season, but they will likely need to beat Oklahoma through the air to pull off the upset on Saturday. The Sooners allowed just 146 yards on 32 carries to Michigan two weeks ago, and that included a 75-yard TD run. That night, the Wolverines’ 31 carries besides that long run picked up just 71 yards.
The Auburn defense, like Oklahoma’s, was underrated last fall amid a 5-7 season, but future pro DE Keldric Faulk and Co. are stout. The Tigers gave up 419 yards to Baylor QB Sawyer Robertson in Week 1, but held the Bears to just 24 points thanks to stout D on both third down (5-for-15) and fourth down (3-for-6).
Oklahoma Sooners Betting News, Outlook
Record: 3-0
SEC winner odds (FD): +1000
Odds to make CFP (FD): +134
John Mateer Heisman Trophy odds: +800 at DK (shortest); +800 at FD (tied-shortest); +800 (second-shortest)
Obviously, the biggest name to watch for OU is Mateer. Venables — who entered 2025 with a career record of 22-17 (2-6 SEC, 10-8 Big 12) — may have saved his job with the Sooners by landing not only Mateer, but also former WSU OC Ben Arbuckle.
That tandem has been as good as advertised through three weeks. The Sooners only scored 24 points vs. a tough Michigan D in a massive Week 2 win. Still, Mateer’s output (270 yards passing and three touchdowns — two rushing, one passing) against the Wolverines showed that this Oklahoma team can hang with anyone.
The Sooners have also been excellent on defense, giving up just 19 total points through three games. Offensive woes overshadowed its success in 2024, but the OU defense was No. 17 in the country, per ESPN’s SP+. By the same metric, Oklahoma currently boasts the No. 5 defense in America.
For now, oddsmakers see this squad as more of a wild card in the SEC than a true threat. But all the pieces are in place for OU to contend for the conference title if Mateer can live up to the mounting early-season hype after piling up 44 (!) touchdowns — 29 passing, 15 rushing — at Washington State last year.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Best Bets
Though both defenses are impressive, I expect Arnold and Mateer to make their fair share of plays in this game. So far this year, Auburn has leaned on its running game, but the Tigers have the receivers to make noise downfield if Oklahoma keeps the run game in check, especially if the Sooners pack the box.
It’s hard to see Arnold picking apart a talented, experienced Venables defense, but I trust him to make enough plays with his arm to keep this game close.
Oklahoma’s status as 7-point favorites at home makes plenty of sense, but the spread is selling a high-upside Auburn team a bit short, and I can’t shake the feeling that this game will come down to the wire.
While we’re making the case for Auburn, it’s worth noting that for all the massive plays Mateer makes as both a passer and runner, he also has been intercepted in all three games so far this year. And against the best defense he saw in 2024, he was sacked eight times and intercepted once in Washington State’s 45-24 loss to Boise State.
Points certainly won’t be easy to come by for either offense in this game, but I’m expecting enough late back-and-forth between Arnold and Mateer for this to narrowly go over the current total of 46.5.
Best bets:
Auburn +7 (-110 at DK, bet365) — 1 unit
Over 46.5 (-100 at FD, bet365) — 0.5 units
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