By David Barisic,Last Word On Sports

Copyright yardbarker

ATP 250 Chengdu final

Musetti – Tabilo: 23.09.2025 13:00 CEST

Lorenzo Musetti has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Chengdu was at the US Open, where he lost to Sinner in the quarterfinals in straight sets. He took some time off to prepare for the upcoming Asian swing.

This week in Chengdu, Musetti won the opening match against Prizmic in three tight sets. He served great in the deciding set, not offering any breakpoints. In the quarterfinals, the Italian defeated Basilashvili in straight sets comfortably. Besides losing his serve once at the beginning of the opening set, Musetti served well and played well under pressure. Today in the semifinals, Shevchenko had no answer for Musetti’s game. Musetti offered no breakpoints and won in straight sets after only an hour.

He is the first seed this week in Chengdu. Besides reaching the quarterfinals at the US Open, Musetti has not had any remarkable results on hard courts this season.

Alejandro Tabilo has won six straight matches. Last week, Tabilo lost against Cerundolo J.M. in the Challenger final. This week in Chengdu, he qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the final qualifying round, the Chilean defeated Harris in three tight sets after spending almost three hours.

In the opening main draw round, Tabilo defeated Thompson in straight sets. He offered and saved two breakpoints. He once again played well under pressure in the second round. Tabilo offered and saved four breakpoints against Darderi. The Chilean served twelve aces with only one double fault. His toughest challenge was in the quarterfinals against O’Connell. After losing the opening set 4-6, Tabilo turned the match around. He saved all three breakpoints in the second and third sets.

Today in the semifinals, he upset Nakashima in straight sets. It was another masterclass serving performance. He offered no breakpoints and served eleven aces. This is his first appearance in Chengdu. The former world number 19 struggled with his form this season and is currently outside the top 100. However, with his current result here, Tabilo will return to the top 100.

Best Bets to Make

According to the bookies, Tabilo is the underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. He served well throughout the tournament. He also handled the pressure well. On the other hand, Musetti has not had any remarkable results on hard courts this season besides the US Open. If Tabilo serves well once again, we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Tabilo covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alejandro Tabilo +3.5 games handicap @1.80 @bet365

Both players served well this week. We expect a close match. The surface is fast in Chengdu. We believe there will be at least one tiebreak in this final encounter between Musetti and Tabilo.

That being said, at least one tiebreak in the match is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: over 0.5 tiebreaks in match @1.87 @bet365