Real Madrid have been cruising in La Liga play under new manager Xabi Alonso, winning each of their first six matches to hold the top spot in the table. On Saturday, they’ll face their toughest test yet when they meet Atletico Madrid in the Madrid derby. These two sides have had some thrilling battles over the years and generally play each other tough. In fact, the last three La Liga matches between these teams have finished 1-1. The SportsLine Inside the Lines team model, which simulates each game 10,000 times, has Real Madrid winning in 44% of simulations.
Kickoff from Riyadh Air Metropolitano in Madrid is set for 10:15 a.m. ET. Real Madrid is a +130 money line favorite (wager $100 to win $130) at DraftKings Sportsbook while Atletico Madrid is a +200 home underdog (wager $100 to win $200). A draw is priced at +255. Before locking in your best bets for Saturday’s Madrid derby, be sure to see what SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green is locking in as his best bets for this match.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Last year, Green was profitable in multiple areas on his soccer betting picks, including Euro qualifying (+6.30 units), EFL Cup (+4.47), FA Cup (+3.07) and Champions League (+3.05), among others. Anyone who follows him could be way up.
Here are Green’s best bets and analysis for Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid on Saturday.
Atletico Madrid vs. Real Madrid picks
Both teams to score and Under 5.5 goals (-128): 0.5u
Kylian Mbappe to score (+110): 0.5u
Draw (+260): 0.5u
Real Madrid will aim to maintain their perfect start to the season when they take on local rivals Atlético Madrid this weekend. Los Blancos are top of the table in Spain after winning all six league matches so far. They’ve scored 14 goals and conceded just three times. Real Madrid also beat Marseille 2-1 in their Champions League opener, so they boast a 100% record in all competitions.
However, they now face their sternest challenge. The Atlético Madrid players always dial up the intensity when they take on their fierce local rivals. Manager Diego Simeone often whips the crowd into a frenzy at the Metropolitano Stadium too, so it will be a hostile environment for the Real Madrid stars. It promises to be a tense game, and these teams could ultimately cancel one another out.
Head-to-heads are very even
Clashes between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid tend to follow a predictable pattern. They’re normally tight, low-scoring games: a bet on under 2.5 goals would have paid off in 16 of the last 20 games between these teams. However, both teams often find the back of the net. A wager on both teams to score would have paid off in each of the last six Madrid derbies.
The teams are evenly matched, and they often draw. In fact, the last three games between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid finished 1-1. Their last meeting took place at the Bernabéu in February. Atlético striker Julián Álvarez opened the scoring from the penalty spot, but Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé equalized on 50 minutes, and the spoils were shared once again. Another 1-1 draw would probably suit both managers when the teams renew hostilities on Saturday. It would allow Real Madrid to maintain their unbeaten start to the season, while it would also extend Atlético’s unbeaten streak to six league games.
Mbappe in sensational form
Atlético Madrid finished third in La Liga last season – eight points behind Real Madrid and 10 points behind champions Barcelona. The club responded by spending €176m ($207m) on new players this summer, bolstering their squad with the likes of Alex Baena, David Hancko, Johnny Cardoso, and Giacomo Raspadori. Supporters hoped that spending spree would fuel a title challenge this season. However, Los Rojiblancos made a dismal start to the campaign, losing 2-1 to Espanyol and then drawing with Elche and Alavés.
Results have improved since then. Atlético beat Villarreal 2-0, drew 1-1 with Mallorca after having a player sent off, and then beat Rayo Vallecano 3-2 on Wednesday. That victory lifted them up to ninth in the table, but they’re already 9 points behind Real Madrid, and they cannot afford to lose any more ground. They will be desperate to avoid defeat on Saturday. Atlético Madrid are unbeaten at home this season, which is encouraging. They haven’t lost to Real Madrid since the 2022/23 season either. Real Madrid should be surging with confidence after thumping Levante 4-1 on Tuesday. Los Blancos look revitalized under new manager Xabi Alonso, with Mbappé leading the charge.
The French forward scored twice against Levante, taking his tally to seven goals in six league games this season. He also scored both goals in the 2-1 victory over Marseille, so he has nine goals in seven matches in all competitions. It will be difficult for Atlético Madrid to contain Mbappé this weekend. They’re no longer as strong in defense as they were a couple of years ago. However, Los Rojiblancos also boast a great deal of firepower, so they should also find the back of the net, and we could see another draw on Saturday.