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We've been hearing that AI is coming for our jobs for years. Is it finally happening now? Maybe. We're now seeing a slew of big companies ditching thousands of jobs, citing AI as an animating rationale. This week, for instance, Amazon said it was cutting 14,000 white-collar jobs, arguing that it can and should be leaner in an AI age. In July, Microsoft said the same when it got rid of 9,000 jobs. IBM says it has replaced hundreds of workers with AI. And all of that may certainly be true. On the other hand: Companies always announce some reason for layoffs. That doesn't mean it's the reason. Companies are run by people, and people run in herds. If other people are chalking up layoffs to AI, maybe you'll do the same. Lots of companies are investing a lot in AI. There are not lots of examples of companies using AI effectively. An MIT study says 95% of corporate AI investments have generated "zero return" so far. Again. I don't doubt that AI is being used in various ways, across multiple industries, and that those uses will grow. (I now routinely use ChatGPT to help me research and structure stories like the one you're reading now. While we're here: Axel Springer, the company that owns Business Insider, has a partnership with OpenAI, which makes ChatGPT.) And it would make plenty of sense for a company that thinks it's going to replace workers with software to move to do that in advance, instead of getting around to it after the fact. Related stories Business Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know Business Insider tells the innovative stories you want to know But inevitability is different from reality. I've been through enough layoff waves to know that rationales change … all the time. Chances are you know this, too. So maybe AI really is taking away jobs now. Maybe it's just getting the blame. Either way, if you're the one getting laid off, does it matter?