Copyright Barchart
Mayfield Village, Ohio-based The Progressive Corporation (PGR) provides auto, property, business-related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services. With a market cap of $127.4 billion, Progressive operates through Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property segments. The insurance giant has notably underperformed the broader market over the past year. PGR stock prices have declined 9.2% on a YTD basis and 16.8% over the past 52 weeks, lagging behind the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 16.2% gains in 2025 and 14% returns over the past year. Narrowing the focus, Progressive has also underperformed the sector-focused Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLF) 9.6% surge in 2025 and 7.7% uptick over the past 52 weeks. Progressive’s stock prices dropped 5.8% in a single trading session following the release of its mixed Q3 results on Oct. 15. The company has continued to observe solid growth in net premiums, growing 13.9% year-over-year to $20.8 billion. Meanwhile, its overall topline increased 14.1% year-over-year to $22.5 billion, but fell 57 bps below the Street’s expectations. Meanwhile, its adjusted EPS of $4.05 missed the consensus estimates by a staggering 20.3%, unsettling investor confidence. For the full fiscal 2025, ending in December, analysts expect PGR to deliver an adjusted EPS of $17.83, up 26.9% year-over-year. However, the company has a mixed earnings surprise history. While it surpassed the Street’s bottom-line estimates twice over the past four quarters, it missed the expectations on two other occasions. Among the 25 analysts covering the PGR stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on nine “Strong Buys,” two “Moderate Buys,” 13 “Holds,” and one “Moderate Sell.” This configuration is slightly pessimistic as compared to three months ago, when 11 analysts gave “Strong Buy” recommendations and none of the analysts suggested “Moderate Sell” ratings. On Nov. 5, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods analyst Meyer Shields maintained a "Market Perform" rating on PGR, but lowered the price target from $262 to $246. Progressive’s mean price target of $268.77 represents a 23.6% premium to current price levels. Meanwhile, the street-high target of $351 suggests a 61.4% upside potential.
