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US President Donald Trump is expected to approach his coming summit with Xi Jinping by relying on personal chemistry and his “gut”, but his ability to charm the Chinese leader will be limited at best, analysts and former government officials in Washington said on Tuesday. The first meeting in six years between the heads of the world’s two largest economies is expected to take place shortly before the October 31-November 1 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in South Korea. Among the topics on the radar in their high-stakes summit include rare earth minerals, tariffs, export controls, soybean purchases and Taiwan. “I’ve never encountered anyone as cold blooded in their calculations of national or personal interest as Xi Jinping,” said Ryan Hass, former China director with the National Security Council during the administration of US President Joe Biden. “And I don’t expect that that’s going to change any time soon,” added Hass, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “He’s not emotionally soft. He’s not easily swayed by charm. And I think that we should take that into account.” Trump said within a 24-hour period he expected to seal a “fantastic” and “good” and “fair” trade deal with Xi even as he warned that the sit-down might be put off. “I think we’re going to have a very successful meeting,” he said at a White House lunch before pivoting. “Maybe it won’t happen,” he added. “Maybe somebody will say, ‘I don’t want to meet. It’s too nasty’. But it’s really not nasty.” Trump has long touted the perceived power of his intuition, brushing aside the need for preparation or groundwork in business and state affairs, an approach he believes puts opponents on the defensive. Asked in April how he would proceed after reversing his “Liberation Day” tariffs in favour of bilateral trade negotiations, he responded: “Instinctively, more than anything else … You almost can’t take a pencil to paper, it’s really more of an instinct than anything else.” This echoed comments he made about the economy during his first term: “My gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.” In a battle of styles, however, Trump faces in Xi the leader of a system that plans exhaustively, does not ad lib or play it by ear to ensure that its leaders and the ruling Communist Party are not embarrassed, undercut or made to look weak or undignified. Xi has also flexed his muscles in recent weeks, making little secret of the power and leverage Beijing believes it now holds with its tight grip on rare earth minerals and magnets. Beijing’s tightening on October 9 of export controls over these strategic materials used in hi-tech products from blenders to fighter jets, which caused global shock waves, is not likely to be reversed by grins and handshakes, analysts said. “Xi is going on the offence,” said Jonathan Czin, a Brookings fellow and former China expert at the CIA. “This was a strategic move. It wasn’t just a tactical move that was focused on the next round of meetings.” Entering the talks, Xi senses weakness in recent US concessions over Taiwan and tech restrictions and is feeling confident, analysts said. Internationally, he is coming off a well-received Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit and military parade in Beijing. And domestically he has just purged nine top military leaders, dispelling any lingering doubts about who is boss, and is poised to take a victory lap at the upcoming plenum. “The Chinese will relish the idea of rolling out a consolidated consensus among leadership behind a five-year plan, in contrast to a government in the United States that’s shut down and not able to plan, let alone fund its government for the year ahead.” Analysts said a key problem going into the meeting is that both sides are a bit brash and may be more vulnerable than they think. “US leaders feel really confident. At the moment Chinese leaders feel really confident. It doesn’t seem like either side feels like it needs to do a lot of things that would provide space for the other,” said Zack Cooper, a fellow with the American Enterprise Institute. “It’s more likely that both sides are not as strong as they think, and so over time, that’s going to create huge problems and some really bad miscommunication.” China’s GDP slowed to 4.8 per cent in the third quarter from 5.2 per cent in the second quarter. The housing market has declined at its fastest pace in 11 years, consumption has wobbled, the population is ageing and youth unemployment remains politically and economically worrisome. The US economy, meanwhile, faces potential storm clouds given the risk of inflation from Trump’s tariff policy; the country has been unable to pass substantive legislation, unemployment is rising and much of the government’s administrative expertise is being cored out. The risk is that each side fails to anticipate the other’s reaction because they are not in backchannel contact. A taste of this was seen recently when China imposed rare earth export restrictions after Washington vastly increased sanctions on Chinese companies, with each taken aback by the other’s move. “There’s going to be both this surprise that they’re having more challenges than they expected,” said Cooper. “The challenge is, how does that action-reaction cycle work when both sides are reassessing both themselves and each other? That’s part of what makes this a very tricky moment.” Analysts said there is little expectation of a grand bargain coming out of next week’s talks. Earlier US pressure on China to reform its state-led economic model, end dumping and enact structural reform has lessened in favour of Trump’s more transactional approach. Possible deal elements may involve Chinese curbs on fentanyl ingredients, purchases of aircraft and soybeans – which Trump badly wants in advance of the 2026 midterm election – checks on US tech export restrictions and an easing of US tariffs. “Beijing still very much wants a trade deal with Washington even if it doesn’t have deep expectations that a new trade deal with the US will fundamentally improve the bilateral relationship” to try to reduce tariffs, keep anti-China trade hawks at bay and introduce a modicum of stability, said Patricia Kim, a Brookings fellow. “China sees a trade deal as buying itself time and space to advance its long-term goals of technological self-sufficiency and leadership in cutting-edge sectors, which it sees as sort of the real path to winning or prevailing in a strategic competition with the United States,” she added.
