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The by-election taking place in Caerphilly on October 23 will see a new Senedd member for Caerphilly elected. There are many caveats that need to be considered when it is a by-election. Very often turnout is low, and can be decided on very local issues. Parties can both simultaneously concentrate resources or decide not to spend time or money if they think it is a lost cause, however, this one will be used as a way to see if, as polls predict, Labour's vote share in Wales is collapsing. The Caerphilly seat is particularly interesting because it is firmly a Labour heartland, having only ever been represented by the party at both a Senedd and Westminster level and will, whether Labour like it or not, be seen as a barometer on how people believe they are doing in both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. It will show whether the projected surge from Reform and Plaid Cymru is happening. The most recent Wales-wide poll showed Labour's vote share was projected to be 14%, down from 40% at the 2021 Senedd election. The same poll put Plaid Cymru in the lead, and would be in the driving seat in terms of forming the next Welsh Government , and Reform UK a close second, showing a huge leap in their representation here in Wales. However, it is important to note major changes are happening at the May 2026 election. After that, there will be new constituency, and a list system as well as 96 rather than 60 Senedd members. This by-election is being fought on the existing constituency boundaries and with a first past the post system, the last time these will be employed in a Senedd election. Ahead of the by-election, we met with the key players. Here are excerpts and links to those interviews and a run down of all eight candidates. Mr Aicheler, a councillor on Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen Community Council and a governor of Machen School , said that his campaign will focus on the theme of “care”. Apart from his work in the community, Mr Aicheler is operations manager for Enterprise Educators UK where he lobbies national and regional government on entrepreneurship and education policy, among other responsibilities. He has previously founded multiple businesses in Caerphilly and has lived in Machen with his family for 20 years. In the TV debate he spoke about the possibility of increasing income tax to pay for social care. Learn more about him. Chair of Gwlad's Rhymni and Sirhowy Valleys branch, the former Royal Welsh soldier says he is from a family of miners. A dad of three, he says he loves adventures in Parc Penallta and Gelligaer Common. Gareth Hughes is a retired political journalist and has also spent time as a political adviser, educator and housing campaigner. He was born in Bangor but has lived in Caerphilly for several decades having also spent time serving on Rhymney Valley District Council. Gareth was the founder of the Welsh housing association movement and became the first director of the Welsh Federation of Housing Associations, now known as Community Housing Cymru. He described the Greens in Caerphilly as the "new kids on the block". You can learn more about him here. Gareth Potter is a 40-year-old who lives in Ebbw Vale . Originally from Trevethin, his family moved back to Wales from Bristol to get better educational prospects for his children, both with additional learning needs. Two days a week he works in the Senedd for Natasha Asghar MS, and has plenty of experience running campaigns - something that remains his "main job" but his only attempt to be elected himself was at a council level, and he didn't win. Yet, he says he is not only loving the experience, but is a self-proclaimed dark horse, and says no matter what happens, he will keep going until he is a Senedd member. He isn't from a political family, but got into politics in 2010 when David Cameron returned the Conservatives to power. "I've come to Wales not only to get involved in Welsh politics but actually to really make a difference," he said. "All I'm focussed on is literally hitting every door I can possibly hit and if they're saying that they're going to Reform then it's challenging them 'Why are you going to Reform? Were you a Conservative? Were you Labour?" He spoke of wanting improved high streets, library closures reversed and wants restrictions on smartphones in all schools. Read his interview here. The front-runner in the by-election, according to the single Caerphilly-specific poll carried out about voting intentions, Llyr Powell would, if elected, become Wales' first elected Reform UK Senedd member. In his interview with WalesOnline he spoke about how he met, and started working for Nigel Farage, He admitted he wasn't politically minded before an event in Swansea and he is the first in his family to go into politics since his great-grandfather who knocked doors for Labour . He answered questions about his relationship with Nathan Gill, the now disgraced former Reform UK leader and explained why he is talking about immigration, a non-devolved issue, and his red lines for doing any potential budget deal with Labour if he got elected. Read the full interview here. Roger Quilliam's X page says he is a 22-year-old Philosophy, Religion, and Ethics student who serves on UKIP's NEC. Announcing his candidacy, he wrote: "I am officially running in the upcoming Senedd by-election in Caerphilly. UKIP is the only party who will scrap the Senedd. Up to 1-in-3 in Wales want the Senedd gone. The people of Caerphilly deserve a unionist voice. Vote UKIP on 23 October." In an optimistic mood as we met early in the campaign, the Labour candidate knew there was a lot resting on his shoulders. Not just the legacy of his friend Hefin David, but the weight of the party. He was well aware in Welsh-specific polling, Labour is projected to fall from its joint best performance in terms of seats won in 2021 to its worst, by some margin , and that local factors were against him. The 52-year-old is a book publisher who says he values books but the Labour-run council is in a high court battle with campaigners over its plans to close libraries. He was born in Windsor, and brought up in Berkshire to Labour-supporting parents - his dad was a Labour councillor. He studied in London, where he met Lynda, from Troedyrhiw, and they settled in Caerphilly. "So half my life has been in this constituency," he said. Having joined the party at 15, when he went to college in London he was involved in setting up the Labour society, then was involved in local branches in his adult life but this, however, is his first attempt at entering elected politics. It was the crisis in publishing, especially in Wales, which led him to meet his predecessor in the Senedd seat of Caerphilly. Having started a campaign to raise awareness of the problems facing the publishing industry he met Hefin David to try get the message through to Welsh Government that any more cuts would be a disaster, and the pair became friends until Mr David's death in August. The full profile of Labour's Richard Tunnicliffe is here. Lindsay Whittle is no stranger to politics. A councillor with more than 50 years standing, and someone who has stood in Westminster elections 10 times, and the Senedd since it has existed, he has spoken a lot about his experience and how well he knows the patch. A keen activist in the 1970s, he even missed an O-level because he was out canvassing, he explained. For our free daily briefing on the biggest issues facing the nation, sign up to the Wales Matters newsletter here He spoke about the "silly" rules the Senedd instils on housing is why houses are empty for too long. He didn't believe the 20mph speed limit should be default and still doesn't. Libraries and leisure centres are more local issues coming up, and the state of the NHS in Wales for which, he criticises the current administration for a lack of "joined up thinking". Local housing is something he feels strongly about but disputed some of the narrative that has emerged about immigration and the impact on his home borough. Read his interview in full here.
