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The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) industry is at a pivotal moment as its largest U.S. pure-play, Affirm (AFRM), prepares to report fiscal first-quarter 2026 earnings today after the market close. Many investors are wondering whether this is the right time to buy or sell. Affirm reports fiscal Q1 2026 results today, covering July through September 2025, as its fiscal year begins on July 1. Analysts will be watching revenue growth, earnings per share, gross merchandise volume (GMV), credit quality, and progress of the Affirm Card, which saw active users surge 97% to 2.3 million in Q4. This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. Thursday, November 6 (all times ET) 5:00 p.m. Earnings call scheduled to begin… For more like this on Forbes: Bot Or Bust: Klarna’s IPO Punts On AI Future – Should Banks Follow? Interest Rates and Regulations The cost of capital has always been the BNPL sector’s lifeblood. After nearly two years of tight financial conditions following the Fed’s 2022 rate-hike cycle, the recent cuts mark the first real relief for lenders. Lower borrowing costs flow straight to the bottom line, improving Affirm’s margins and funding flexibility. MORE FOR YOU Regulatory risk, meanwhile, has eased. The CFPB’s 2024 decision to classify BNPL lenders as “credit card providers” briefly threatened to upend the industry. But in 2025, the agency reversed course, first announcing in May that it would “not prioritize enforcement,” then acknowledging in a June court filing that the earlier rule was “procedurally defective.” With cheaper capital and lighter oversight, at least for now, Affirm and its peers are entering a friendlier operating environment, one that could reignite growth and investor confidence. For more like this on Forbes: When Payments Become Strategy, Not Just Plumbing. Affirm Stock Performance Year-to-Date Affirm shares have gained 67.1% year-to-date in 2025. The stock has been volatile, trading within a wide 52-week range between a low of $30.90 in April and a high of $100.00 in August. The rally has been driven by a fundamental shift in the company’s financial narrative. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2025, Affirm reported its first-ever full-year GAAP net income of $52.19 million, a complete turnaround from the substantial net loss recorded the prior year. This improvement was fueled by a strong fiscal fourth quarter, when the company posted its first quarterly operating profit and a 43% year-over-year increase in GMV. Today, the stock opened at $71.14 and declined during the session to a low of $66.24 (at the time of writing). BNPL Industry Comparable While Affirm remains unique with its U.S.-only focus, a relevant comparable is Klarna (KLAR), which has seen volatile performance since its highly anticipated IPO on September 10, 2025. The stock priced above its initial range at $40 per share and opened for trading at $52, a 30% jump from its offer price. Since then, the stock has trended downward. As of early November 2025, KLAR trades around $35.66, more than 10% below its $40 IPO price and over 30% below its opening trade. Its post-IPO range spans from a low of $35.01 to a high of $57.20. Despite the slide, analysts maintain a “Buy” consensus, with an average price target of $49.54. Looking Ahead With the existential threats of high interest rates and regulatory uncertainty largely behind it, the BNPL industry’s focus has shifted to its next phase: diversification. Major players are expanding into traditional banking by launching debit cards and deposit accounts, positioning BNPL as a gateway to becoming primary financial service providers.
