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Advanced NFL model reveals Chargers vs. Commanders picks, score prediction

Advanced NFL model reveals Chargers vs. Commanders picks, score prediction

Two teams looking to get back in the win column square off in NFL Week 5 as the Washington Commanders travel out West to face the Los Angeles Chargers. The Commanders are 2-2 after suffering a 34-27 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4, but got good news that Jayden Daniels could return under center in Week 5. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert and the Chargers are coming off of their first loss of the season, falling 21-18 to rookie Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants.
Kickoff from SoFi Stadium is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Commanders vs. Chargers odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before making any Chargers vs. Commanders picks, make sure you check out the picks from the SportsLine Projection Model.
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Where to watch Commanders vs. Chargers on Sunday
When: Sunday, Oct. 5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Stream: Fubo
Follow along: CBS Sports App
Chargers vs. Commanders betting preview
Odds: Chargers -2.5, over/under 47.5
The Commanders generated plenty of offense in Weeks 3 and 4 with Marcus Mariota under center, but will benefit from having Daniels starting on Sunday after the Atlanta defense held Washington scoreless for more than a quarter. Washington’s defense struggles against the pass — which will be tough against Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen — but has held the opposing rush to 107.5 yards per game, so they will aim to slow down Omarion Hampton and take a key weapon in the Chargers’ arsenal.
Los Angeles is dealing with injury issues of its own, and the offensive line that allowed Herbert to be pressured 27 times by the Giants last week will be missing three starters. The defense, however, is holding opponents to 270.0 total yards per game and just a 30.8% conversion rate in the red zone. LA’s pass rush is especially effective and will keep the pressure on Daniels in his return.
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Model’s Commanders vs. Chargers score prediction, picks
Both teams have covered the spread twice this season. LA went 10-2-0 ATS last season when favored by seven points or fewer, and they have won each of their last six home games against the Commanders. The SportsLine model projects the Chargers will cover the spread in 53% of simulations. Chargers vs. Commanders score prediction: Chargers 28, Commanders 24
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