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Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Sussan Ley have settled into a perfect contrast of yin and yang. The PM has a halo of success, so much so that seemingly everything he touches turns to gold. In sharp contrast, Ley is floundering, unable to maintain party unity, much less take the fight up to Labor. It's not that the government is doing a particularly good job. Its net-zero strategy is both messy and unlikely to succeed. The Treasurer was just forced into a humiliating super tax backdown. And on his Washington trip, Albo was embarrassed by the presence of his hand-picked ambassador, Kevin Rudd, who Donald Trump slammed publicly. But these troubles are no big deal for an ascendant PM, popular in the polls. In fact, they only served to highlight just how Teflon he is compared to Ley, who apparently can't do anything right these days. Take, for example, Ley's attempt to land an easy blow on Rudd. When she said that he should resign his commission in Washington - a logical move, some would argue, given that Trump can't stand him - it backfired. Her own Liberal parliamentary colleagues took Rudd's side. Former PM Tony Abbott even praised Rudd to throw shade at Ley. She can't catch a break, whereas Albo can do no wrong. He can avoid the tough tasks of tax reform and budget repair, stepping off his flight home wearing a T-shirt a teenager might choose as their 'fit', but none of that matters. The 62-year-old PM is hitting his stride, whereas the 63-year-old Opposition Leader looks like she should have retired years ago. Politics is often about contrast. Right now, Albanese is on a run and Ley is down in the dumps. That contrast is helping to define the fortunes of both leaders. Every time Ley stumbles, Albo looks better. Each time he has a win, or controls his team, Ley looks more out of control and a bigger loser. Unless something changes dramatically, Ley is a dead duck - left dangling while rivals wait for the perfect moment to strike, timing their challenge for maximum effect. At present, Ley is just a useful idiot, diminished and unelectable. And that's the best-case scenario for the Opposition right now. The worst case would see the Coalition split, a new conservative party emerge - like Reform in the UK - and One Nation go mainstream and grow its share of the right-wing vote via defections. In contrast, Albo is the master of his own destiny, despite his presiding tendencies as PM. The Greens are in control. The Labor right is under his thumb. Internal party opponents have been sidelined. You have to give it to the man, he's certainly built on his strengths from the dangerous days during his first term after the Voice was defeated and his politicking was starting to look out of touch. But things can change quickly, especially in modern politics. Albo can't afford to get too comfortable, lest a generational shift in Liberal leadership re-energise the opposition, spotlight his lack of fresh ideas and advancing age, and help the Coalition resolve its internal divisions. None of that's guaranteed, of course. Things could get worse for the Opposition before they get better - and a weakened opposition feeds the appearance of government success. This contrast between the parties and the leaders hasn't happened in a week - it's been building for months. Ley has been trying to stitch together a wounded Coalition while the Nationals keep pulling at the seam over net zero. Every flare-up drags her back into climate and culture wars instead of cost-of-living solutions. Albo, meanwhile, banked his Washington extravaganza: a critical minerals deal, AUKUS reassurances, nice photos in the Oval Office - foreign policy success repackaged as proof of domestic competence. All this underscored the contrast with Ley and her band of not-so-merry men (because, in the Liberal Party, they mostly are men). The more her side looks divided, the more the PM looks like he's simply doing his job - and his polls improve as a consequence. Ley's internal problems are now the headline - and that's if the Opposition gets any attention at all. Her polling reflects it. Ley's numbers have slid, Labor's lead has widened, and Albanese's preferred-PM margin only grows. The data highlights the contrast. Voters angry about the cost of living, high immigration and housing affordability feel like they have nowhere else to turn politically. They can't - and won't - warm to the alternative because it offers them nothing. Labor is already into its second term and the state of the economy is perilous, which would be political manna from heaven for a capable Opposition. But the Coalition has run itself down for years, and those chickens are coming home to roost. A lack of women in its ranks, a dearth of impressive pre-parliamentary backgrounds amongst its MPs, poor leadership alternatives and barely a policy of substance in sight. The list goes on. Ideologically, most Coalition MPs would struggle to enunciate what they believe in. Of course there are exceptions, but they prove the rule. Albanese has stood where Ley now finds herself: the unpopular Opposition leader up against a popular prime minister basking in Washington pageantry. In 2019, Scott Morrison enjoyed his own Oval Office moment with Trump, complete with a rare state dinner. Albanese watched it, learned from it, and now he's the one squeezing value from the photo ops. Morrison's Washington glow faded when he mishandled the bushfires, before he was elevated - then dumped - by the pandemic's arrival and fallout. Events, dear boy, events... they can change political fortunes quickly, and they are often out of the control of leaders, as former British PM Harold Macmillan once noted. So Albo should enjoy his dominance while it lasts - and Ley, if she wants to survive, must scratch out a pathway back and hang in there in hope. Because the suddenness of changing circumstances can shift the public's mood very quickly. But right now, she's odds-on to fail and Albo is enjoying his time in the sun.
