Copyright Barchart
Coinbase Global (COIN) is a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform that enables individuals and institutions to buy, sell, store, and trade digital assets such as Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD), and Solana (SOLUSD). Operating across over 100 countries, Coinbase serves more than 100 million verified users, offering services through its retail app, institutional trading platform, and blockchain infrastructure tools. As one of the most trusted names in crypto finance, Coinbase emphasizes regulatory compliance, security, and transparency while expanding into areas like Web3 innovation, staking, and decentralized finance integration. Founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam, it is headquartered in San Francisco, California. COIN Outperforms Market COIN stock has shown robust performance in 2025. Over the last five days, the stock has risen 7%, while its one-month return stands at 16%. In the six-month time frame, the stock has gained 77%, highlighting consistent gains and growth. Year-to-date (YTD), the stock rose 46%, and in the 52-week period, it increased by 67% against the S&P 500’s ($SPX) 16% and 18% returns, respectively. Compared to the broader index, Coinbase significantly outperformed, fueled by its inclusion in the S&P 500 and positive sentiment around crypto industry developments. Coinbase Posts Disappointing Results Coinbase reported its Q2 2025 results on July 31, 2025, posting a revenue of $1.5 billion, missing consensus analyst estimates of roughly $1.56–$1.59 billion. EPS also failed to meet expectations, with adjusted EPS reported as $0.12, well below the $1.28–$1.51 range projected by analysts, though some calculations pushed overall net profit figures higher for the quarter. Subscription revenue showed modest growth, but weaker trading activity led to the revenue miss compared to Wall Street forecasts. A more in-depth review of Coinbase’s financial position shows both progress and challenges. The firm’s net profit benefited from a $1.5 billion unrealized gain from strategic investments and $362 million in gains from its crypto portfolio. Adjusted net income, which strips out these one-time items, was just $33 million, highlighting core earnings pressure. Trading revenue and spot volumes dropped significantly (over 30% lower year-over-year), while cash and cash equivalents fell to $7.5 billion, a decrease of about 12% from the previous year. Shareholders’ equity, though, grew by nearly 18%, and assets under custody hit a record $245 billion, buoyed by ETF mainstream adoption. For guidance heading into Q3, Coinbase projected July transaction revenue around $360 million and anticipated Q3 subscription/service revenue between $665 million and $745 million, reflecting an 8% quarter-over-quarter potential growth at the midpoint. Management emphasized continued focus on growing subscription and services lines amid ongoing market volatility, along with investment in product expansion (including tokenized equities, derivatives, and broader payment APIs), and reiterated their cautious outlook regarding trading volumes given the current crypto market environment. Coinbase is set to report its third-quarter results on Oct. 30. Coinbase Upgraded by Analyst J.P. Morgan recently upgraded COIN stock to "Overweight" from "Neutral," driving a 4% rally in share price on Friday. The upgrade is primarily based on the analyst's view that Coinbase can unlock substantial revenue by launching a native Base token for its Layer 2 blockchain platform. J.P. Morgan estimates the market value potential for a Base token to be between $12 billion and $34 billion, with Coinbase itself potentially capturing $4 to $12 billion in value. This move is expected to accelerate developer engagement and innovation on Base, solidifying its position as one of the largest Layer 2 networks. Beyond the Base token, the bank highlighted Coinbase's growing ability to monetize USD Coin (USDC) yields. Restricting higher USDC yield payouts to premium "Coinbase One" subscribers could add another $374 million annually, boosting recurring revenue and incentivizing more users to adopt premium services. These strategies, coupled with improved crypto market sentiment after favorable inflation and interest rate news, position Coinbase for strong revenue growth through both token economics and financial platform innovation. Should You Buy COIN Stock? With J.P. Morgan upgrading the stock, broader market experts have given COIN a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating alongside a mean target of $385.63, reflecting an upside of 7% from the current market rate. The stock has been covered by 33 analysts so far, receiving 16 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy” rating, 13 “Hold” ratings, and three “Strong Sell” ratings.
