Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli and Democratic U.S. Representative Mikie Sherrill are deadlocked in the race for New Jersey governor, a new poll shows.
Why It Matters
The Garden State’s battle for the governor’s seat between Sherrill and Ciattarelli has become one of the nation’s most closely watched contests, with recent polls indicating a statistical tie.
As one of only two gubernatorial elections this year, New Jersey’s outcome holds significant weight for both parties and could serve as a bellwether ahead of the 2026 midterms. Observers across the country are closely monitoring whether Democrats can retain control in a historically blue state, or if Republicans can flip the governor’s office in a trend that might influence national political strategies.
What To Know
In the survey by conservative pollster Save Jersey, conducted by Valcour, Sherrill leads Ciattarelli by two points, with 47 percent compared to 45 percent and 7 percent remaining unsure.
The poll surveyed 1,274 likely New Jersey voters on September 23 and September 24, with a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
Multiple independent surveys and partisan polls now show the race between Sherrill and Ciattarelli in a dead heat. An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey conducted on September 22 and September 23 among 935 likely voters found both candidates at 43 percent support, with 11 percent undecided and a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Ciattarelli has a 45 percent favorability rating, the Save Jersey poll shows, versus a 48 percent unfavorable rating. Sherrill has a 43 percent favorability rating versus a 48 percent unfavorable rating.
Complicating the campaign is the recent news of largely unredacted military records of Sherrill that were reportedly released to an ally of Ciattarelli. Sherrill’s military records, which have ignited a privacy and ethics debate, could potentially shift the trajectory of the contest in its final weeks.
Ciattarelli posted to X on Saturday: “Mikie Sherrill was barred from walking at her 1994 U.S. Naval Academy graduation due to a massive cheating scandal.. She claims punishment for refusing to report classmates. Yet, she refuses to release sealed records that could clarify her involvement. If there’s nothing to hide, why not be transparent? Voters deserve the truth. #ReleaseTheRecords”
What People Are Saying
Political analyst and Florida Atlantic University professor Craig Agranoff, to Newsweek on Monday: “This latest poll, with Sherrill leading Ciattarelli 47% to 45% underscores that this NJ governor’s race is truly anyone’s to win as we approach November 4.
“The closeness reflects a state increasingly competitive for Republicans, buoyed by recent legislative gains and a rightward shift among suburban voters. A Republican victory would be substantial, potentially shattering the Democratic stronghold that has persisted for over two decades and signaling a broader realignment in the Garden State’s politics. To ensure independents back her, Sherrill should lean on her bipartisan credentials, particularly her advocacy for housing affordability and property tax relief, which resonate strongly amid ongoing economic concerns, while highlighting Ciattarelli’s past stances that might alienate moderate voters.”
Trump, on Truth Social last week: “Wow!!! A just out poll has Jack Ciattarelli essentially beating close to incompetent Mike [sic] Sherrill in the race for Governor of New Jersey. Jack is tough on crime and cutting taxes, two things that people really demand today. He will be a GREAT Governor, and Sherrill wants Open Borders (again!), men playing in Women’s Sports, Transgender for everyone, and all of the things that almost DESTROYED America. She is a big supporter of the perhaps future Communist Mayor of New York City! We need Jack in New Jersey!!! President DJT”
What Happens Next
The final weeks of the campaign are expected to remain hectic as fallout from the records release could continue and both sides seek to sway undecided voters.
