CLEVELAND, Ohio — There’s not just one thing that has led to the Browns going 1-3 to start the 2025 season.
There’s been a stagnant offense, offensive line injuries, dropped passes, pass catchers struggling to get open, a run game that was slow to develop in the opening weeks, quarterback Joe Flacco’s lack of mobility, and special teams errors, just to name a few of the most pressing issues.
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But even considering all of those problems and shortcomings, the Browns are still more in control of their destiny than you may initially believe, all thanks to one stat.
It’s maybe the most basic and obvious, but the numbers back it up: When Cleveland wins or ties the takeaway battle, they are much more likely to win the game.
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“It’s a lot if you look at the data,” left guard Joel Bitonio said on Sunday after Cleveland’s 34-10 loss to the Detroit Lions. “Like if we tie or win the turnover battle, I think we’re like 32-11 since (head coach Kevin Stefanski’s) been here. So it’s an important thing. You win games.
“The teams that make the playoffs are usually plus in the turnover battle and we haven’t been the last two years. So it’s something that we preach all the time and we gotta start making it happen.”
Indeed, Bitonio remembered that stat correctly.
Going back to the 2020 season, the Browns are 32-11 when they win or tie the takeaway battle — that includes a wild card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the only of three postseason games under Stefanski in which the Browns won the turnover margin.
Here’s the results year-by-year, with last year being the obvious anomaly as the Browns staggered to a 3-14 finish:
2020: 10-0
2021: 7-3
2022: 6-3
2023: 6-0
2024: 1-5
2025: 1-0
In each of the last few seasons, it’s been a struggle for the Browns to win the takeaway battle both as the defense was slow to generate game-changing plays, but more so because of interceptions thrown by the Cleveland offense.
The Browns had a league-worst in both giveaways (34) and interceptions (23) last year. In 2023, those numbers were nearly identical, 37 and 23, respectively.
This season, Cleveland’s eight total giveaways have them in a four-way tie for the worst mark in the league along with the Bengals, Raiders and 49ers. Joe Flacco has thrown six interceptions and lost two fumbles already this season, and that number will certainly play a factor in whether Stefanski and the Browns decide to bench him ahead of Cleveland’s Week 5 matchup with the Vikings in London.
At least four of Flacco’s picks seem to have been the fault of the receivers, but that just goes to show how much this offense is struggling as a whole right now.
In each game they’ve lost this season, the Browns have also lost the turnover battle. On Sunday in Detroit, the Lions directly converted three Cleveland turnovers into 17 points.
Both of Flacco’s interceptions in that game came in the first half. Initially, it looked like neither of Flacco’s picks were his fault, with Cedric Tillman apparently running the wrong route on the first one, and Jerry Jeudy getting knocked down on the second.
After the game, however, Flacco took the full blame for the miscommunication with Tillman. With 1:49 left in the first quarter, Tillman ran a hitch and Flacco threw a fade down the left sideline. Lions safety Kerby Joseph was the closest player to the pass, and the Lions converted his grab into a 48-yard field goal.
On the second pick, which came with 4:26 left in the second quarter, Jeudy got knocked down, and cornerback D.J. Reed swiped the pass as he fell with him. The interception survived a review, and Jared Goff threw the first of his two TD passes to receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on the ensuing drive.
The final turnover didn’t happen until the game was already out of reach, as Lions star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson forced a sack fumble with 7:07 to play. Goff once again found St. Brown for an 8-yard TD.
The Browns defense did manage to create a turnover of their own in this game, as Goff misread their disguised coverage and Denzel Ward benefitted with an interception.
But considering the Browns lost the ball three times and struggled to run their own offense, it still wasn’t a clean enough game to really give themselves a chance against a Lions squad that has one of the best offenses in the league this year, and has scored 124 points over their last three games.
“It’s the stat that you can draw a line the most and has the most significance to winning and losing,” Stefanski said on Monday. “Obviously when you’re minus-two on the road, it’s really, really a challenge. Minus-two on the road versus a good team, it’s a challenge.
“So we have to do a better job on all sides of the ball when we have the rock, whether on offense, special teams, whatever it is, we have to do a better job with it. Then certainly we have to take it away. That really is the name of the game.”
For all the Browns’ issues — the injuries, the drops, the protection breakdowns and the inconsistency under center — the turnover battle still cuts through as the simplest, most telling barometer. Win it, and they usually give themselves a chance. Lose it, and all the other flaws get magnified.
That won’t solve everything for a team searching for answers, but right now it might be the clearest place to start.