The Chicago Cubs are set to take on the San Diego Padres, but who will be in their playoff rotation starting on Tuesday?
The team’s rotation has been thrown into question thanks to the late injury to Cade Horton, who had been the team’s most effective pitcher before suffering a broken rib that will knock him out of action for a minimum of 15 days.
With several key starters struggling and with a questionable bullpen, who will be in the Cubs’ rotation come Tuesday, and who will be working in a relief role?
Here’s how things could stack up for the North Siders.
Matthew Boyd
After his August 2 start against the Baltimore Orioles, you would’ve thought that Boyd would be the absolute stone cold lock to be the Cubs’ Game 1 starter in a playoff series. His ERA was a sparkling 2.34 after he struck out eight Orioles and allowed four hits in seven innings, and all arrows were pointing up.
After that he had back-to-back losses but didn’t pitch badly against the Blue Jays or Cardinals, but things slowly started to fall apart after that. In his last seven starts, Boyd has given up four or more earned runs on five occasions, coughing up seven home runs and walking 12 batters over that time. His ERA for the month of September ballooned to 5.31, driving his season ERA to 3.21.
Still, Boyd’s consistency and ability to work deeper into games will play into Craig Counsell’s decision, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him go in Game 1.
Shota Imanaga
Imanaga also had a September to forget for the Cubs, giving up at least three earned runs in all five of his outings and racking up a 6.51 ERA on the month, coughing up 10 home runs in just 27.2 innings of work.
His last outing against the New York Mets was the worst of the bunch, as he gave up eight earned runs, including a pair of long balls, in an 8-5 loss at Wrigley Field on Thursday.
With Horton’s injury, Imanaga likely will find himself slotted into a start during the series, but one would have to imagine that he’ll be paired with a long-reliever in the event that he struggles under the bright playoff lights.
Colin Rea
If there was one (healthy) Cubs starter who didn’t shrink in September it was Rea, who pitched 27.1 innings and sported a 2.63 ERA in five starts during the month. He racked up 32 strikeouts and just four walks during the month, with just one in his last four starts.
Rea’s flexibility to be used either as a starter or reliever is a big asset for Counsell to have at this point, but with his strong performances in the month of September, one could imagine him getting the ball in a start against the Padres.
Jameson Taillon
Taillon’s health during the second half of the season definitely hurt the Cubs’ rotation, but could his strong September see him make a postseason start in the wild card round?
In four September starts, Taillon gave up just four earned runs in 23.1 innings of work, with 17 strikeouts in that time. The long ball, a bugaboo of his during the season, was also less of a factor, as he gave up just one solo home run in those four outings, a sign perhaps that he’d rounded back into form.
If Counsell thinks Taillon can go deeper into a game, and given that he pitched six or more innings in three straight starts in September that is probably a safe assumption, he could earn a start over the struggling Imanaga in the Padres series.
Other Pitching Decisions
Since Javier Assad pitched in Sunday’s win over the St. Louis Cardinals, he will in all likelihood be unavailable for the series against the Padres.
In a shorter three-game series, the Cubs could go with 12 pitchers instead of 13, and with four spots already claimed, they would have to determine the eight other hurlers that will make the bullpen for the wild card round.
Brad Keller, Andrew Kittredge, Daniel Palencia, and Caleb Thielbar are likely locks to make the bullpen for the series, and the Cubs will likely want at least a few guys that can eat multiple innings given the recent struggles of pitchers like Imanaga and Boyd.
That would probably mean that Aaron Civale, who hasn’t pitched since Wednesday, would be in the mix, as the Cubs have used him in a long relief role during his five outings with the team. Michael Soroka is also a strong contender, though he hasn’t pitched more than two innings in an appearance since he was acquired by the Cubs at the trade deadline.
That leaves two more spots in the Cubs’ bullpen, and one would assume Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers will occupy those roles, with Jordan Wicks on the outside looking in.