The Jets travel to South Beach for “Monday Night Football.”
With Justin Fields looking likely to start for the Jets on Monday, Gang Green has seen the spread move pretty dramatically in their favor after being moderate-sized underdogs earlier in the week.
The Jets initially opened at +5.5 but have since moved to +3 at BetRivers Sportsbook and +2.5 at most of the other shops around the betting market.
Barring a tie, one of these two teams’ zero has to go, as these winless squads face off.
A loss on Monday could be the end of Mike McDaniel in Miami, and there’s reason to believe that this will happen.
Jets vs. Dolphins prediction
It’s been tough sledding for the Jets on the defensive side of the ball this year, getting abused by the Bills in Week 2 and struggling against the Steelers before nearly stealing a win in Tampa Bay.
Some interesting betting trends to keep in mind before placing action on this game:
The Dolphins are 0-10 against the spread in their last 10 Week 4 games.
The over is 7-0 in Miami’s last seven home games.
The Jets have not defeated the Dolphins since Oct. 2015 (0-9).
This highlights how poorly the Jets have performed, particularly on the road.
But I’m not too sure that the Dolphins will rip the Jets’ defense like everyone else has.
Tua Tagovailoa, who is 6-0 in his career against the Jets, has performed about league average statistically.
Tagovailoa has 1,276 yards, with eight touchdowns and five interceptions against Gang Green.
I’d love to target the underdog here, but it’s a bit too sketchy for me.
My betting is projecting a huge edge of 12.6 percent on the under for this game.
The projected score for this game is 19.1 to 19.76 in slight favor of the Dolphins, showing clear value on the Jets (+3) and under 45.5.
So, we’ll play the total on “Monday Night Football.”
As for a player prop, you could certainly do worse than targeting Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop.
Hall has looked solid, with the surrounding statistics also supporting a resurgence for the Jets’ top running back.
He is the No. 23-ranked running back according to Pro Football Focus.
My projection has Hall running for 56 total yards. His line is at 47.5.
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The Miami Dolphins are 23rd in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per carry, so I suspect that Hall will show up in a big way come Monday.
THE PLAY: Under 45.5 (-110, DraftKings) | Breece Hall over 47.5 rushing yards (-110, BetMGM)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.