By Irishexaminer.com,Michelle McKeown

Copyright irishexaminer

The numbers we can’t ignore

Ireland’s Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act commits us to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 51% by 2030 compared with 2018 and to reach net-zero by 2050. Under EU rules, we must also reduce emissions in key sectors, such as transport, agriculture and buildings, by 42% by 2030 compared with 2005.

Yet, EPA projections show that even if every current government policy fully delivered, national emissions will fall by only up to 23% by 2030. In other words, we are on track to miss our own law by a wide margin and to breach Europe’s Effort Sharing Regulation, which governs the bulk of our non-energy emissions.

Agriculture is the elephant (or perhaps the cow) in the room, accounting for 38% of emissions. Transport follows at 21.7%, with energy and heat making up most of the rest. Almost every one of these sectors is heading for an overshoot of its legally assigned carbon budget, with home heating even recording a small rise in emissions last year.

The price of falling short

Failing to meet these targets is not just a political embarrassment, it comes with a very real price tag. Analyses by Ireland’s Fiscal Advisory Council and the Climate Change Advisory Council estimate that missing EU and domestic targets could cost between €8 billion and €27 billion in the coming years. That money would be spent on buying emissions allowances from other EU states, paying compliance penalties, or funding emergency carbon-cutting measures at the last minute. Even with additional policies already pencilled in, the likely bill still ranges from €3 billion to €12 billion.

To put that in perspective, €12 billion could pay for a national light-rail network or retrofit hundreds of thousands of homes. Instead, that cash would effectively be handed over for failing to keep our promises.

And that is only the financial side. The true cost of climate delay is environmental and social; more damaging floods, fiercer Atlantic storms, droughts that hurt farming and water supplies, and rising sea levels threatening towns and coasts. Every extra tonne of COâ‚‚ in the air makes those impacts more likely and more severe.

Why the gap?

Ireland has made strong progress where it has been easiest to act. Electricity is increasingly renewable, wind and solar provided 39.6% of our power in 2024, and coal use has plummeted. But the hard-to-abate sectors remain stubborn. Agriculture is the biggest challenge. Our dairy-dominated sector drives methane emissions, and while technologies such as feed additives and improved fertiliser management can help, these changes are slow and politically sensitive. Emissions from agriculture fell 1.7% in 2024 due to reduced inputs, but long-term reductions require deeper shifts.

Transport is the next hurdle. Electric vehicle sales are climbing but not fast enough to offset the sheer growth in traffic. Public transport upgrades and safe cycling infrastructure lag behind ambition.

Finally, Ireland’s famously draughty housing stock needs deep retrofitting. Progress on insulation and heat-pump installation has been encouraging in spots but remains far below the rate required to halve emissions in the buildings sector.

What must happen

The EPA is blunt, Ireland must move from plans to delivery, and quickly.

Key actions include

· Accelerating renewable energy and modernising the electricity grid so it can carry far more wind and solar power

· Scaling up home retrofits and heat-pump installations, reducing reliance on fossil-fuel heating

· Re-engineering transport, with faster electrification, major investment EV charging infrastructure

· Transforming agriculture by cutting emissions per animal, improving fertiliser use, and shifting land into carbon-rich habitats such as peatlands and native forests.

The good news is that these measures create jobs, reduce fuel imports, and can lower energy bills in the long term. In other words, it’s not just stick, there is plenty of carrot if the policies are implemented at the necessary speed.

The fork in the road

Think of our national emissions like the petrol light on a long motorway drive. We know the tank is running low. Every kilometre driven without refuelling is a choice to make the eventual stop sharper and costlier. Climate change does not negotiate. Delay simply means steeper cuts later and higher financial penalties.

There is also a reputational risk. Ireland has already been challenged in court for inadequate climate plans; the landmark Climate Case Ireland forced the government to strengthen its climate policy in 2020. Missing the next round of targets would again invite legal challenges and damage our credibility with European partners and investors who increasingly factor climate performance into their decisions.

A chance we can still take

Despite the daunting gap, Ireland has shown it can bend the emissions curve. A 6.8% drop in one year proves that action, combined with factors like a mild winter and a shift away from coal, has an impact. What matters now is consistency and speed… steep sustained cuts every year to 2030.

The coming five years are therefore decisive. With firm delivery of renewable projects, ambitious retrofits, and bold agricultural reform, Ireland could yet pull off something close to its 51% goal. Without that effort, the State will spend billions buying compliance abroad while dealing with the home-grown costs of a destabilised climate.

Ireland stands at a climate crossroads. One path leads to lower energy costs, green jobs and resilience; the other to penalties and reputational damage. The next budget, the next farm plan, and the next transport strategy will show which way we turn.

The atmosphere won’t grade us on effort. If we want to avoid paying through the nose, we need to make those tonnes vanish, not just on paper but in the real, warming world.