Good morning,
When Michael King is truly on, it doesn’t matter who he is facing. Swing after awkward swing is what his pitches get.
That was not the King the Padres saw for most of his truncated outing last night.
That is not the King they have seen for more than spurts in his four starts since returning from the injured list, which were ostensibly to be tuneups for the postseason.
“I still have stuff to work on,” King said last night.
He said his 49 pitches in 2⅔ innings was a “step in the right direction” and the he was “happy-ish” with the outing.
Well, good.
Because this version of King, who spent nearly four months on the injured list in the middle of the season, is who the Padres have.
Same as the version of Dylan Cease and the version of Yu Darvish they are taking into the postseason.
Someone has to start some games.
Nick Pivetta, the only member of the rotation able to perform at a consistently high level this season, will start Tuesday in Game 1 of the Padres’ wild-card series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Indications are that Cease will start Game 2, though the Padres have not announced that.
It seems Darvish will get the ball if a Game 3 is necessary.
The Padres could yet decide King is the fit for Game 3. But the planned short outing for him last night allows him to come back as soon as Wednesday (Game 2) out of the bullpen.
“His ability to get out and do what he did today creates an opportunity for whatever scenario we may need him in, quite frankly, in Chicago,” manager Mike Shildt said. “But we also feel comfortable and confident, as does Michael, that (if) he gets into a situation we need (him) to start, he could throw up to 75 pitches or so and be in a good spot.”
It is possible the Padres are being coy about their pitching plans. It seems likely they are simply being noncommittal. Because they can be and because they almost have to be.
There is no obvious right or wrong choice to be made here. That is just how the season has gone for Cease, Darvish and King.
I wrote in yesterday’s newsletter (here) about the dangers of starting Darvish against the Cubs. And anyone who watched Cease pitch this season knows why there would be reservations about him being on the mound to start a playoff game, though the Padres appear to be leaning that way based largely on his 0.96 ERA over his past three starts against the Cubs.
Any one of the three potential starters for the two potential games could turn in a gem. That is what their resumes say.
Their recent results do not inspire confidence.
Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove circa 2022 aren’t walking through the door. It is unlikely the ‘22 or ‘24 version of Darvish or the 2024 King are either. And we waited all season for the 2022 and ‘24 Cease to show up.
But the Padres project confidence based on who their starting pitchers have been a lot in the past and at times even recently and because of the strength of their bullpen.
And because they have no choice.
You can read in my game story (here) from the Padres’ 5-1 victory over the Diamondbacks about King’s night, an injury scare and two home runs that landed where few do.
The story mainly focused on the fact that the Padres found out early yesterday afternoon that they would be playing the wild-card series in Chicago.
“Obviously, we want home field advantage,” King said after the game. “But when we were thinking about it, I was actually saying ‘Wrigley Field in the postseason is a pretty cool atmosphere.’ … It’s playoffs in Chicago, in a great sports town. So we’re hoping to come in there and make some noise and bring it back to Petco eventually.”
It was also made official yesterday that the Brewers will have the No.1 seed in the National League and that the winner of the Padres-Cubs series will play them in the Division Series.
So, if the Padres win in Chicago, they would go to Milwaukee for Games 1 (Oct. 4) and 2 (Oct. 6) of the NLDS before returning home for Game 3 (Oct. 8). If necessary, Game 4 would be Oct. 9 at Petco Park and Game 5 would be Oct. 11 back in Milwaukee.
The others
The Padres plan to have two members of their starting rotation available in their bullpen for the wild-card series, though they would certainly hope to use no more than one of them.
After JP Sears starts today’s regular season finale, Randy Vásquez will pitch in relief and then be ready to serve in that capacity during the wild-card series.
One aspect of King and Vásquez being relegated to the bullpen that makes sense is that they have worked as relievers in the major leagues while Cease and Darvish have not.
“I’ll be very happy with whatever role I’m given,” King said. “… I think coming out of the bullpen really helped me in terms of starting. It allowed me to figure out how to get out of jams. It allowed me to, I think, increase velo a little bit, increase swing and miss. And it definitely helped me become the starter that I am. Obviously I prefer starting, but it’s like riding a bike.”
Shildt said the evaluation for the final spots in the bullpen were ongoing when the series against the Diamondbacks began.
It seems fairly straightforward now.
There have always been six locks for the bullpen: Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, Adrian Morejón, David Morgan, Wandy Peralta and Robert Suarez. (That is assuming Morgan, who had a fever while pitching Friday night and departed Petco Park on Saturday afternoon wearing a mask, is well enough to pitch.)
That would leave two spots for what is likely a group of three pitchers — Bradgley Rodriguez and left-handers Kyle Hart and Yuki Matsui.
Matsui, who allowed a run in a career-high 2⅓ innings last night and has a 1.66 ERA over his past 17 appearances (21⅔ innings), would seem likely to make the roster along with Rodriguez, whose fastball has routinely topped 99 mph while he has allowed one run in 4⅔ innings since being called up in mid-September.
It is also possible the Padres could recall Alek Jacob, who allowed one run over 10 innings in seven games leading up to his being optioned on Sept. 9 when King returned from the injured list.
Hopeful
Elias Díaz was smiling and moving around unencumbered late last night, a couple hours after essentially pulling himself from the game in the fourth inning following a couple awkward swings that resulted in him feeling tightness in his left oblique.
He said he was being “careful” by departing and clasped his hands together as he said of the wild-card series, “I will play, I hope.”
The Padres (especially Pivetta) hope so as well.
“Looks like it’s mild,” Shildt said. “Who knows with these things, especially in that area. But the medical team is optimistic.”
If Díaz can’t go, it seems likely the Padres will have Freddy Fermin catch every game in the wild-card series.
It was/is likely the only postseason games Díaz was/is going to begin behind the plate were those started by Pivetta.
Pivetta has only thrown to Díaz this season while putting up career bests in ERA (2.87), innings (181⅔), strikeouts (190) and WHIP (0.99).
If Díaz is unable to play this week, it would probably be Martín Maldonado coming back to replace him on the roster.
Maldonado never really left.
The veteran of 15 MLB seasons was designated for assignment on July 31 when the Padres acquired Freddy Fermin. But he was around Petco Park the next day. And once he cleared waivers, he remained at the ready for the Padres.
After a few weeks off, he signed with the team on Aug. 31 and has continued to work out.
The Padres also have Luis Campusano available to catch. Campusano put up astounding numbers in Triple-A but went 0-for-21 with the Padres this season.
He did not work behind the plate in either of his brief stints with the team this season, and the Padres stuck with Maldonado despite his hitting under .200 most of the season.
Third level twice
There had been just 37 home runs hit to the third balcony of the Western Metal Building before last night.
Then Fernando Tatis Jr. led off the game by sending a home run there. And after a single by Luis Arraez, Xander Bogaerts launched a homer just a little farther and a little to the left.
It was not just the first time two homers had reached third balcony in the same inning but the first time it had been done in the same game.
It was also the first time the Padres hit two home runs with a projected distance of at least 413 feet in the same inning since 2023. They did it three times that season, though once was at Coors Field (5,280 feet above sea level) and once in Mexico City (7,349 feet).
The home run was Tatis’ seventh in his past 19 games. Bogaerts’ 424-foot blast was his first home run in 19 games, though he did hit three in the four games before that and spent nearly a month on the injured list before returning Tuesday.
When Díaz homered in the second inning, it gave the Padres at least three home runs for the fifth time in their past 19 games. They had homered three or more times in just eight of their first 142 games.
Job well done
None of the Padres high-leverage relievers will work today.
Estrada, Miller, Morejón and Suarez all pitched a scoreless inning to close out last night’s game and their regular seasons.
Said Shildt: “Those guys are ready to roll and got their work in.”
Estrada struck out three of the four batters he faced to finish with 108 strikeouts. That will lead National League relievers by a wide margin and will stand alone as the highest total for any major league reliever as long as the Astros’ Bryan Abreu does not get three strikeouts today to tie Estrada.
Miller struck out all three batters he faced to finish with 104 strikeouts.
Morejón’s 2.08 ERA in 75 appearances (73⅔ innings) ranks sixth among MLB relievers with at least 65 appearances while his 0.90 WHIP ranks fourth. He stranded 40 of the 45 runners he inherited, a 11.1% scoring rate that is tied for best among all relievers who inherited at least 30 runners.
Suarez will finish as the NL saves leader with 40.
Drive to return
Will Wagner wasn’t waiting to get back to the big leagues.
When he had three flights canceled by inclement weather Friday, he left the terminal at Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport, boarded the rental car shuttle and got a car. Then he drove five hours to San Diego.
Wagner had been working out at the team’s complex in Peoria, Ariz. since being optioned to make room on the roster when Bogaerts was activated off the IL.
Wagner’s suitcase remained behind in Phoenix, so he arrived at Petco Park without his glove, batting gloves or any other gear.
“I’m here,” he said. “So it’s OK.”
The suitcase arrived during the game, so he did not have to borrow equipment when he pinch-hit and then played the final two innings at second base.
Tidbits
With a victory today, the Padres would reach 90 wins for just the sixth time in franchise history and the first time in back-to-back seasons. They won 93 games in 2024.
Shildt has won at least 90 games in each of his first three full seasons as a major league manager.
It had long been a certainty the Padres would set an attendance record for the third consecutive season, and they officially did so on Friday. With another sellout Saturday and one anticipated Sunday, the projected final attendance will be nearly 3.44 million. That is about 100,000 more than last season.
Arraez went 1-for-4 yesterday to extend his hitting streak to 15 games, one shy of the career high he set earlier this season. Arraez is batting .383 (23-for-60) during the streak. He needs to go at least 3-for-4 today to reach a .295 average for the season and avoid a career low.
Ryan O’Hearn was 1-for-3 with a double and is batting .483 (14-for-29) during an eight-game hitting streak.
Diaz’s home run in the second inning was his fourth in his past eight starts. It was just the second of his nine homers this season hit in a game not started by Pivetta.
If you’re ready for the postseason, check out Jeff Sanders’ first look at the matchup against the Cubs (here).
All right, that’s it for me.
We will have injury updates and coverage from today’s game on our Padres page, and I will also have a story there later today that looks at the season and what it can tell us about where the Padres might be headed going into the playoffs.
The next newsletter will be in your inbox on Wednesday morning after Game 1.
Talk to you then.