By Ian Bremmer
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Read More: How Modi Is Sending Trump a Message
On the digital front, optimism for a deal rose on Sept. 22 when the two governments reportedly agreed not to demand information on source code or other proprietary knowledge as a precondition for U.S. companies doing business in India. U.S. negotiators also hope India will drop restrictions on the import of American soy, a potentially big win for U.S. farmers made anxious by the potential impact of tariffs on the sale of their products, especially as China slows its purchases of American produce. Finally, Modi and Trump may well meet on the sidelines of the East Asia Summit in Malaysia in October. That would go a long way toward easing tensions and helping negotiators get to yes on a trade deal.
Yet, none of this will restore the personal trust that’s been lost between Trump and Modi. Common geopolitical and commercial interests will keep a solid floor under the relationship and continue the longer-term progress of broadening and deepening U.S.-India relations. But the transactional base of relations between the two leaders will continue. New irritants will emerge, as we saw with Trump’s recent announcement of a $100,000 fee added to H-1B visas, which allow high-skilled foreign workers a chance to work in the U.S. About 70% of H-1B visa holders are Indian nationals.
