Business

India’s Oil Output Slips in Q2 – Will Fuel Prices Rise Next?

By Gunjan Rajput

Copyright republicworld

India’s Oil Output Slips in Q2 - Will Fuel Prices Rise Next?

According to the latest government data, crude oil production by ONGC’s nominated blocks fell 3.6% in July and 3.7% in August year-on-year, while gas production also saw a slight decline. Oil India’s crude output dropped by nearly 3% during the same period, with gas output fluctuating between growth in July and decline in August.The report highlights that monsoon-related project delays, including commissioning of critical facilities like CPP and LQUP at ONGC’s KG-98/2 block, slowed production ramp-up. “H2, however, seems promising as post-monsoon project work and key initiatives like 98/2 ramp-up and BP TSP for ONGC and pipeline connectivities for Oil India fructify,” Emkay Research noted.What This Means for ConsumersLower domestic output could keep India more reliant on imported crude, exposing consumers to global price fluctuations. If global oil prices rise, it may lead to higher petrol, diesel, and LPG prices in the short term.However, experts say a turnaround is expected. ONGC’s management remains optimistic about Q4 FY26, with increased output from KG-98/2 fields and better gas flow from Daman expected to ease supply pressures. Oil India also expects pipeline connectivity projects like IGGL-DNPL expansion to help meet demand and reduce reliance on LNG.Relief Could Be Around the CornerFor households worried about rising kitchen budgets, relief may come after December. Once output ramps up, it could stabilize fuel prices and ensure steady gas supply for city gas distributors (CGDs), reducing the risk of price spikes for CNG and PNG users.“Gas outlook geologically seems promising, though key pipeline connectivities—namely IGGLDNPL hook up and DNPL capacity expansion to 2.5mmscmd from 1.2mmscmd—and common carrier status are awaited. The management expects this to materialize toward the end of CY25. The common carrier declaration would enable Oil India to sell NWG to CGDs across India, though the company is seeking NWG for sale to NRL’s expanded capacity in the absence of a common carrier – which would be equally beneficial for the standalone business and, at the same time, protect NRL from relying on LNG,” the report said.Read More – Is Today A Bank Holiday in India? Check RBI Calendar, State-Wise List