The 2025-26 Premier League season is a half-dozen games old now (for most of the 20 clubs) and even though it’s still extremely early, it’s never too early to start thinking about the UEFA Champions League race.
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For the sake of this argument, let’s go ahead and assume that the nine sides competing in European competitions this season will accrue enough coefficient points to earn the extra Champions League place for next season, bringing the total to five. Barring a complete collapse, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City look like pretty safe bets to finish in the top five (and four, and three), but from there on down the table it’s really anyone’s best guess, because…
Chelsea, Spurs, Newcastle, Manchester United inconsistent to start season
In summary…
Chelsea — Already struggling to cope with the fixture pile-up (especially defensively where they’re short a center back (or two) after Levi Colwill tore his ACL), and can’t seem to finish a game with 11 players on the field. Cole Palmer’s groin injury continues to linger as well, making the Blues a one-dimensional counter-attacking side.
Tottenham Hotspur — Much improved defensively, but at great cost to the other end of the field. Joao Palhinha can’t save the day every weekend and Xavi Simons playing out on the left means Spurs aren’t going to create more than one or two quality chances a game when the opposition sits in deep to defend (as they tend to do). Not to mention what eight Champions League games takes out of a team.
Newcastle — Three of their five games (still to play on Sunday, vs Arsenal, 11:30 am ET) have featured zero goals and the Magpies have only managed to eclipse the 1.0 xG mark in two out of five games (a shocking 0.14 in a scoreless draw with Bournemouth last weekend).
Manchester United — Lads, it’s Manchester United. Not to be taken seriously until further notice.
Bournemouth — currently 4th place, 11 points
The Cherries started red-hot after losing to Liverpool on opening day, winning three straight and handing Tottenham Hotspur their first loss with a smothering defensive display (0.19 xG) away from home. When it goes right for Andoni Iraola’s side, it really goes right and they’re one of the worst teams in the Premier League to play against. Bournemouth might also have the best striker (Evanilson) of all the teams we’ll mention here, which can oftentimes make all the difference. Their kryptonite? Defending set pieces, at least it was in their 2-2 draw with newly promoted Leeds on Saturday, and that’s hardly a surprise after three star defenders departed for $195 million this summer.
Brighton — 10th place, 8 points
At this point, it’s probably safe to assume that Brighton’s conveyor belt of superstar talent will churn out “the next Joao Pedro” (or Moises Caicedo, or Alexis Mac Allister, or… you get the picture) and the Seagulls will continue to soar their way into the European conversation year after year. Perhaps Diego Gomez, who scored four goals in the League Cup this week, will make that massive leap and lift Brighton to new heights alongside Yankuba Minteh, Brajan Gruda and club-record signing Stefanos Tzimas. Minteh and Gruda each had an assist in the comeback win against Chelsea and already look far more settled in season no. 2 at the Amex. If Tzimas can chip in 8-10 goals this season (as a 19-year-old) to go with Danny Welbeck’s customary 6-8, Brighton are going to be right in the thick of the European race once again.
Fulham — 9th place, 8 points
Five games in, and Fulham have five results that don’t look bad at all on paper. Draws with Brighton and Manchester United to open the season, a loss to Chelsea that might have gone a completely different direction had their opening goal not been incorrectly ruled out, followed by back-to-back wins over Leeds and Brentford. We’ll see what they get up to against Aston Villa on Sunday (9 am ET), but once again Marco Silva’s side is incredibly organized defensively with Sasa Lukic and Sander Berge patrolling in front of the backline, but will they create and score enough to pick up the points? Lots of solid squad players in the attack, but no one that puts fear in opponents.
Crystal Palace — 2nd place, 12 points
Where in the world has this come from? Crystal Palace lost Eberechi Eze after the season began, after losing Michael Olise last summer, and all they’ve done is make their best five-game start to a Premier League season in club history (last remaining unbeaten side) and extend their unbeaten run to 18 games in all competitions (dating back to last season). With all of that said, Palace’s squad looks a bit thin in term of difference makers (both in the starting XI and off the bench) and at some point that is going to hit them like a ton of bricks, but they should still finish mid-table or top half with ease.
Sunderland — 3rd place, 11 points
Obviously the longest shot of the bunch as a newly promoted side, but a summer of what appeared to be solid transfer business has been even better than advertised through six games. Wilson Isidor is headed for a dozen goals (if not more) and Granit Xhaka is not only every bit the captain Sunderland needed, but the 33-year-old has three assists and a couple of man-of-the-match performances to his name already as well. The schedule get significantly more difficult in the next month with Chelsea, Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle all to play in an eight-game stretch but at the very least, the Black Cats look like they can just about starting planning for a second season in the top flight.