FOXBORO — Drake Maye knows that he doesn’t need to perform advanced calculus to get to the bottom of his team’s issues from a week ago.
“Shoot,” he said earlier this week, “it’s turnovers.”
While agonizingly frustrating on one hand, on the other, those miscues that cost the Patriots a win against the Steelers are eminently fixable. That’s how Maye sees them, at least.
“Turnovers in this league are such a big deal,” Maye said. “It’s one of those things that we can clean up. Holding onto the football, me holding on in the pocket, and the running backs (holding onto it) is something that I do think is fixable. It’s something that you try to overemphasize, and usually when you overemphasize things, you fix it.”
The Panthers will arrive at Gillette Stadium on Sunday as an almost six-point underdog. Though the Patriots aren’t anyone’s idea of a wagon, this game is as close to a “get-right” opportunity as it gets.
How can they pull it off? Let’s get to the matchups…
Matchup that will make your Sunday
Drake Maye vs. Ejiro Evero
Evero is one of the game’s most well-respected young defensive minds. The 44-year-old Panthers defensive coordinator has interviewed for multiple head coach openings, and he’s considered the kind of leader who can rally his players.
The results with the Panthers haven’t been there for him, though, as they’ve checked in as the 29th and 32nd defense the last two seasons in points scored.
Maye could be particularly effective on Sunday against Evero’s unit for a couple of reasons. First, while Maye has struggled under pressure — he’s absorbed the second-most sacks (12) in the NFL through three weeks — Carolina possesses one of the worst pass-rushing units in football. They rank 30th in pressure rate (24.3 percent) and they’re last in sacks (one).
Evero also has been relatively predictable with his coverages, playing zone at the third-highest rate (86 percent) and specifically Cover 3 zone looks at the third-highest rate (45.8 percent), per Next Gen Stats. Maye has had plenty of success against zone this season, compiling a 51.5 percent success rate, fourth-best in the NFL, against those looks.
Against Cover 3, Maye has more passing yardage than any QB in the league (358 yards).
MORE PATRIOTS
Matchup the Patriots need to win
Patriots RBs vs. themselves
How the Patriots deploy their running backs will be one of the primary storylines followers focus on for Week 4. After two fumbles last week, will head coach Mike Vrabel continue to utilize Rhamondre Stevenson as his starter? Will Antonio Gibson get more work despite fumbling once himself against Pittsburgh?
While early in the week Vrabel hinted at a potential shift in reps when asked about “accountability” for those who’ve fumbled, on Friday he said Stevenson would not face any discipline.
“If you’re asking me if Rhamondre is on some sort of discipline, no,” Vrabel said. “The discipline is we need our best players to play in a game and do their job and take care of football. And we all have to do that. Drake had an interception and a fumble, we’re not going to play Josh [Dobbs] right now. We have to fix those things, the people around them have to be better and I’m confident that we will.
“I’m not going to talk about the alternative. I’ll go down that road later, but those are things that we have to get fixed, but we also have to do good things with the football, make people miss, make yards and catch it and block when they blitz. So, we’re confident that those guys can do that.”
The Patriots are 30th in the NFL in EPA per rush, thanks in part to their fumbling woes. But they’re also 21st in both success rate and rush yards over expected, indicating their run-game issues go beyond a handful of fumbles.
The offensive line hasn’t been perfect, but it has helped generate space for New England rushers, creating an average of 1.89 yards before contact (seventh-best in the NFL) this season. It’s clear the Patriots need more from their ball-carriers, who average a league-worst 2.11 yards after contact per attempt.
Matchup the Patriots should cook up
Kyle Williams vs. light boxes
Patriots running backs have plenty to clean up when it comes to their collective performance, but part of their inability to create yardage is that their opponents are scheming against them. They’ve faced the league’s second-highest rate of stacked boxes (36.6 percent) on first down, indicating that their opponents are A) expecting run in those situations and B) unafraid of committing fewer bodies to the secondary to slow the Patriots’ passing game.
The result? The Patriots rank 29th in success rate when they run on first down, and they haven’t been able to make their opponents pay when they commit more bodies to the box. They have the league’s 21st-ranked first-down passing game when it comes to EPA per pass on first down.
One way they could try to scare opponents into lightening up their fronts against the Patriots on early downs would be to find a way to threaten the deep part of the field. If opponents feel they need an extra safety deep, that would mean one fewer run defender near the line of scrimmage, and perhaps the Patriots’ running game would have an easier time generating some momentum.
The Patriots are simply not a deep-passing team at the moment, and it’s not because Maye’s arm can’t handle it. They’ve tried just five attempts of 20 air yards or more, third-fewest in the NFL. Perhaps playing rookie speedster Kyle Williams could help the Patriots access that deeper portion of the field. He’s been targeted just twice this season, catching both for 20 yards.
Williams spoke to NBC Sports Boston earlier this week about what he’s doing to try to earn himself more playing time.
Matchup we’ve all been waiting for
Christian Gonzalez vs. his hamstring
Is this the week for Christian Gonzalez? Vrabel certainly seemed to think that was a possibility when asked about his top cornerback this week.
If Gonzalez is able to go, even if it’s in a limited capacity, that could help a struggling Patriots secondary. They’re allowing the third-most yards per pass (7.8), and they’re fifth-worst in EPA allowed per pass play.
Because quarterback Bryce Young loves throwing to the middle of the field — Carolina attempts the third-highest percentage of its passes between the numbers — one would think the Patriots might approach this game similarly to how they approached their win over the Dolphins: flood the middle of the field with bodies and force throws to the outside.
If the Panthers take them up on that offer to attack the boundary, likely to first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan, having Gonzalez would help.
Matchup that could take years off your life
Ben Brown vs. Derrick Brown
With rookie left guard Jared Wilson (ankle/knee) ruled out, Ben Brown looks like the choice to replace him. Vrabel said his confidence level in the veteran interior lineman is “high.”
“Ben’s here because we believe in him,” Vrabel said. “He’s worked at center, he’s worked at guard through camp, and again, he’ll compete. I’m excited to see him play. Everybody’s here for a reason. Take advantage of your opportunity, and I’m sure that Ben will do that.”
If Brown happens to be matched up with Carolina’s Derrick Brown, he’ll have his work cut out for him.
A Pro Bowler in 2023, Brown is the Panthers’ most disruptive lineman, and he may use some late movement prior to the snap to test New England’s awareness along the line of scrimmage. That was something the Steelers were able to do in Week 3 that put the Patriots in difficult positions, especially against the run on early downs.
“This is a really talented player,” offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said of Brown this week. “They have multiple guys at different levels that create some issues here. Derek’s a very rugged guy up front, powerful, strong, explosive.”
Matchup that could determine the outcome
Milton Williams vs. Chandler Zavala
The other matchup in the trenches looks like it should favor the Patriots defense. Carolina is dealing with injuries that have backups playing at both center and right guard. Cade Mays, the backup pivot, started eight games last season. Right guard Chandler Zavala is less experienced with three starts the last two seasons.
If Milton Williams is able to match up with Zavala in passing situations, the Patriots could benefit. He has the third-most pressures among interior defensive linemen (11) this season, and his pressure rate (15.1 percent) is fourth-highest.