By Ryan Prosser

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Nigel Farage would become PM if an election were held tomorrow, a major poll has shown.

Reform UK would take 311 seats, 15 short of an absolute majority of 326, according to the latest MRP poll conducted by YouGov.

It would be the largest gain in seats for a single political party at an election in British history.

If borne out, such an outcome would mark a seismic turn of events and the end of the traditional two-party system which has dominated post-war elections.

Nigel Farage would walk into No 10 if an election were called tomorrow, an MRP poll has shown (Picture: Shutterstock)

Despite the huge surge in seats, Farage’s party would only pick up 27.6% of the vote nationally, further straining the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system.

Under the YouGov poll, based on a sample of 13,000 voters, the Conservatives would be all but wiped out, reduced to their worst ever post-war result with just 45 seats.

However, under this result, the Tories would be the most likely ‘kingmaker’ in building a coalition which would allow Farage to take power.

Reform would be further bolstered by the absence of Sinn Féin MPs, who do not take up their seats, and the Speaker.

Under this scenario, Farage could only be locked out of Downing Street if every other party moved to block him, including the Conservatives, and united around another candidate.

Meanwhile, Labour’s representation in the Commons would be cut by more than half, to just 144 seats, down 267 on its landslide 2024 election result.

This would be the party’s lowest count since 1931, and far lower than the 202 seats it won in 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.

Its support would be confined to its heartlands, mainly large cities including London, Manchester and Liverpool, with a third of Labour seats being drawn from the capital alone.

Nigel Farage with Nick Ferrari on LBC. The Reform UK leader would be on track to lead the next government under this poll (Picture: PA)

Under the poll, Labour would also lose all but three of its Welsh seats, further adding to fears of a defeat in next year’s Senedd elections.

Big names who would lose their seats include former deputy PM Angela Rayner, foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, deputy leader contender Bridget Phillipson, health secretary Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband.

They would be joined by several Conservative ‘big beasts’ including Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel and Mel Stride.

Even Tory leader Kemi Badenoch would have a close fight with Reform for her North West Essex seat.

Angela Rayner would be among prominent Labour MPs to lose their seats if the result was borne out (Picture: Getty Images)

The Liberal Democrats would make a modest gain of seven seats, giving them a total of 78.

With such volatility, many MPs would be elected with super-thin majorities, with 82 seats decided by less than five percentage points.

In fact the average winning candidate is expected to pick up just 34 per cent of the vote share in their seat.

North of the border, the SNP are on track to make a comeback, taking 37 of Scotland’s 57 seats.

The Conservatives would be reduced to just one seat, with Labour on nine, while Reform and the Lib Dems would take five each.

MRPs do have a margin of error. Reform’s seat total could be as high as 342 or, in the lowest case scenario, 271.

Of course, with the next election not expected for another four years, the findings should be taken with caution, but they are a stark illustration of how the political map is drastically changing.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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