By Jets X-Factor,Michael Nania
Copyright yardbarker
Not only is it the league’s lowest mark, but it isn’t remotely close. No other team is below the 40% mark. The margin between New York (35%) and 31st-ranked Seattle (42%) is similar to the margin between Seattle and 25th-ranked Tennessee (49%).
With numbers like this, it is no shock that Buffalo seemed to know what was coming in Week 2.
Do the simple math. If the Bills sent a run blitz on every first and second-down play against the Jets, they would guess right about two-thirds of the time.
Those are pretty fantastic odds for the defense – odds that no smart NFL offense should be yielding in the year 2025.
Not only was it easy for the Bills to guess right, but their correct guesses led to tremendous results. The high reward of guessing correctly made it worthwhile to leave themselves susceptible to occasionally getting hit with a pass attempt.
When Buffalo sniffed out an early-down Jets run, there was a good chance they would stuff the run for a loss or short gain. This would bury the Jets in third-and-long situations, which is a nearly impossible position for New York’s offense due to its limitations at quarterback and wide receiver.
Excluding scrambles, the Jets averaged 2.9 yards per carry on first and second down against Buffalo. They totaled 40 yards on 14 designed carries, with a whopping six of the 14 (43%) yielding two yards or fewer.
Across five series of downs in which the Bills stuffed at least one run (≤2 yards) on first or second down, the Jets never went on to move the chains. Those series resulted in four punts and a field goal attempt.
When you know the opponent will run the ball two-thirds of the time on first and second down, and that they cannot climb out of the hole if you stuff them on the early downs, it is a no-brainer to attack the run game with reckless abandon on almost every play.
The Jets are not good enough offensively to succeed despite predictability. Teams like Philadelphia are physically dominant enough to run the ball down opponents’ throats even when they know it’s coming, while teams like this year’s Chargers (so far) and last year’s Bengals can succeed with a pass-heavy approach because their quarterbacks are just that good.
New York isn’t there yet. With their current personnel, the Jets can only be successful offensively if the play caller puts them in advantageous situations by way of unpredictability.
Buffalo sold out on the Jets’ run game in Week 2, leading to tremendous results. However, this strategy did not come without risks. If you spend the entire game focusing on the run, you will be highly vulnerable when the changeup comes, even if that isn’t very often.
In the off chance that New York threw the ball on Sunday, the Bills did allow numerous favorable opportunities for Justin Fields to make plays through the air. Fields just couldn’t capitalize on them.
