Longtime GOP strategist Karl Rove predicted who will be the “biggest shutdown loser” if Congress fails to keep the government open ahead of its spending deadline next week.
In a Wednesday column for The Wall Street Journal, Rove reflected on which political party was to blame for past major shutdowns dating back to 1995. The column comes after President Donald Trump canceled a meeting with top Democratic leaders this week to negotiate a way to keep the government open, increasing fears that the government will shut down next week.
Republicans, including Trump, have accused Democrats of holding Congress “hostage” with their demands for the spending package. In recent days, Democrats have vowed to oppose any bill that does not include provisions for health care programs.
Because Republicans hold only a narrow majority in Congress, they need Democrats’ votes to keep the government open. Democrats have argued that Republicans will be the ones to blame for any shutdown, explaining that Trump and their GOP colleagues have refused to negotiate on the spending bill.
In his column, Rove argued that the “outcome of the coming shutdown will depend on three factors.”
“First, which side gets their way and therefore looks stronger, as Mr. Clinton did in 1996. Second, which party makes a better case to voters and energizes its coalition, as the GOP did in 2014 and Democrats in 2020. Third, whether other issues loom larger in the nearly 14 months between now and the midterm elections. In our chaotic politics, it’s likely something will,” Rove wrote.
He went on to argue that a shutdown will only diminish public trust in the government.
“But no matter what, the biggest shutdown loser will likely be public trust in Washington writ large. Voters see shutdowns as the result of gross incompetence by our leaders. When the National Election Study began in 1958, 73% of Americans said they trusted the federal government always or most of the time. Today, 22% do, a figure that has been close to constant for decades. Washington’s inability to get its fiscal house in order is a big reason why,“ Rove said.
“Sadly, Washington doesn’t seem to have learned how to avoid shutdowns. But the politics of it are ever surprising,” he concluded.
The threat of a government shutdown has become a recurring event in Washington, though most of the time lawmakers and the president are able to head it off. This time, however, prospects for a last-minute compromise look rather bleak.
Republicans have crafted a short-term measure to fund the government through Nov. 21, but Democrats have insisted that the measure address their concerns on health care. They want to reverse the Medicaid cuts in Trump’s mega-bill passed this summer as well as extend tax credits that make health insurance premiums more affordable for millions who purchase through the marketplaces established by the Affordable Care Act. Republicans say that’s all a non-starter.
Neither side is showing any signs of budging, with the House not even expected to be in session before a shutdown has begun.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.