By Anurag Kumar

Copyright timesnownews

US holiday sales are expected to grow at their slowest pace since the pandemic, according to a forecast released Wednesday by Deloitte. The slowdown comes as rising inflation, uncertain consumer demand, and the impact of Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policies weigh on shoppers. Why It Matters Holiday shopping is one of the most important periods for retailers, especially when consumers are feeling the pressure of higher prices and economic uncertainty. Recently, major retailers have given mixed signals about the season. Target and Best Buy are sticking to their forecasts, Walmart and Macy’s have increased theirs, while toymaker Mattel lowered its outlook. A recent survey by PwC predicted the biggest drop in US holiday spending since the pandemic, with Gen Z shoppers cutting back the most. “Consumers may be front loading purchases again, especially if they consider tariffs and other inflationary costs,” Reuters cited Brian McCarthy, partner at Deloitte, as saying. “Inflation itself pushes the price of items a bit higher, so that’ll manifest itself in a bit of an increase in overall holiday spend,” he added. By The Numbers Holiday sales from November 2025 to January 2026 are expected to rise between 2.9% and 3.4%, compared with a 4.2% increase last year, according to Deloitte, citing data from the US Commerce Department and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.This means total sales could reach $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion, up from $1.57 trillion in 2024.For comparison, holiday sales jumped 7.2% during the 2020-2021 season, after a 4.9% increase in 2019-2020.E-commerce is expected to grow between 7% and 9%, similar to last year’s 8% growth.In-store sales will rise more slowly, by 2% to 2.2%, compared to a 3.4% growth in 2024.In the US, the “holiday season sale” refers to a period of major shopping activity that begins in late November with Thanksgiving and Black Friday, continues through December, and often extends into January with post-holiday sales. This season includes promotions around Christmas, Hanukkah, and New Year’s Day, during which retailers offer significant discounts to attract consumers and boost sales during the festive period.