CLEVELAND, Ohio — From the depths of a 15 1/2-game deficit earlier this season to now sitting in the driver’s seat for the American League Central crown, the Guards have orchestrated what could become the most improbable comeback in Major League Baseball history.
“If they pull this off, if they win the division, biggest comeback in MLB history from 15 1/2 back from, you know, the depths of the depths. Man, they were Davy Jones’ locker. That’s how deep they were out of this race,” cleveland.com’s Paul Hoynes declared on the latest Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast.
What makes this turnaround even more remarkable is how recently the Guardians seemed completely out of contention. While the 15 1/2-game hole came in early July, they still faced what appeared to be an insurmountable challenge as September began.
“On September 4th, they were 11 games out… to be 11 games out in the first week of September, you’re done. You’re cooked,” Hoynes explained. “But they kept coming back. They’ve kept winning. They’re 18-5 in September. Best record in the big leagues.”
That scorching September pace has vaulted Cleveland to the top of the division standings. As of the podcast recording, the Guardians had a better than 90% chance to make the postseason according to projection systems – with the possibility of clinching a playoff spot imminently.
The formula for this historic surge? It’s been a perfect combination of lockdown starting pitching, timely hitting, and flawless execution. The Guardians aren’t blowing teams out – they’re methodically dismantling them with a consistent approach that’s paying massive dividends.
“They do it methodically,” Hoynes noted. “It’s not like they’re blowing the Tigers out or anybody else they played. It’s just that they get the good starting pitching. They, they score enough runs with timely hitting, and then the bullpen comes in and slams the door. It’s a, it’s a great formula for success.”
The magnitude of what the Guardians are accomplishing cannot be overstated. This isn’t just a nice story about a team playing well down the stretch – it’s potentially the greatest division comeback in the sport’s long history. The Guardians have needed 155 days to run down the Tigers, finally passing them and extending their lead with each passing day.
Now, with champagne on ice and playoff scenarios coming into focus, Cleveland stands on the verge of completing what once seemed impossible. If they finish the job, they’ll cement themselves as one of baseball’s all-time great comeback stories.
“The Guardians are the story of Major League Baseball right now,” Hoynes concluded. “This is baseball’s best story going down the stretch.”
Want to hear the complete breakdown of the Guardians’ historic comeback and their path to the postseason? Listen to the full Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast where Joe Noga and Paul Hoynes dive deeper into the remarkable turnaround that has the baseball world buzzing.
More Guardians coverage
Guardians’ six-man September rotation could spark a revolution in MLB
Back-to-Back Manager of the Year? Stephen Vogt deserves another trophy after Guardians’ historic comeback
‘Best moment of my life’: George Valera delivers a big home run for Guardians after long journey to the majors
Podcast transcript
Joe Noga: Welcome back to the. Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. I’m Joe Noga, joined by Paul Hoynes. Hoynsey. The Guardians extended their lead on first place in the American League Central with a 51 win on Wednesday night. The Guardians are pretty much right now a lock for a playoff spot. Fan graphs and a bunch of other sites that figure out the, the chances and the odds and the probabilities of clinching scenarios that they all have the Guardians listed as a better than 90% chance to, to make the postseason. The clinching scenarios will go over here in a minute, but all you need to know is by the end of Thursday night, Cleveland could have a playoff spot locked up. This after having trailed by 15 and a half games in the division at one point this season. Just a remarkable turnaround. And last night’s game really sort of demonstrated that as well. They’re up against Jack Flaherty, a guy who in the past has, has really had their number. They go out and get a big home run from George Valera and add on a few more runs after that. Tanner Byvey and the bullpen were excellent once again. It’s just been an amazing run of starting pitching and timely hitting. And this Guardians team just. It seems like October baseball is inevitable.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, Joe, what a run. I mean, how cool is this? On September 4th, they were 11 games out. They were still 11 games out. I mean, the 15 and a half games out was in early July. But still, to be 11 games out, you know, in the first week of September, you’re done. You know, you’re cooked. And, but they kept coming back. They’ve kept winning. They’re seven, they’re 18 and five in September, Joe. Best record in the, in, in the big leagues. They have won 10 of their last 12, 12 games. It’s just, they just keep winning and it’s, you know, they, and they, they do it methodically. It’s not like they’re blowing, blowing the, the Tigers out or anybody else they played. It’s just that, you know, they get the good starting pitching. They, they, they just, they score enough runs with timely hitting, and then the bullpen comes in and slams the door. It’s a, it’s a great formula for success. And it just, and they just keep doing it night in and night out.
Joe Noga: Yeah, and they’re also executing defensively as well. We saw another couple of really nice plays, Jose Ramirez, Brian Rocchio, defensively yesterday. Really, they’re, they’re, they’re clicking in all facets of the, the game. And it’s showing and the vibes are so high in that clubhouse. Stephen Vogt has done a remarkable job of keeping this club on an even keel even when, you know, things looked bleak. And you know, you’ve, you’ve lost starting pitchers and closers to gambling scandals and, you know, injuries and trade deadlines. And through it all, they’ve, they’ve navigated all this and vote sort of is their, their North Star. They’ve, they’ve sort of hitched their, their wagon to his mantra of just come to the park every day and, you know, and, and be the same, you know, guy you were. Whether there was a, a win or a loss. It’s, it’s just impressive that it, it by sticking to this, this, you know, be yourself every day sort of thing. He’s gotten the most out of these guys. Yeah.
Paul Hoynes: And you know, that we, we’ve heard that last year as well. I think we saw his personality, but it was in a different circumstance too. You know, they won the division by six, seven games last year. Been coming from behind since before the All Star break. They’ve been trying to climb this mountain and they finally got to the top. Took them 155 days to run down the Tigers, Joe. They finally did it yesterday. Last night, I should say. And you’re right, you know, votes message has never changed. I don’t know if he’s changed tactics from last year. It sounds like, you know, one day at a time is pretty familiar with, from, you know, from what he was saying last year. Pretty familiar from every big league manager really, because the season is so long. But, you know, whatever it has taken, you know, it’s taken on a new life, so to speak, this, this year, I think, you know, he’s, he’s reached more people with it. He’s reached that locker room with it. And they believe, Joe, I mean, this is a team that didn’t do a thing at the trading deadline to help these guys. You know, they, they traded Bieber, they traded Seawall, they, you know, and they, they, you could, they probably, you know, will go into this off season trying to improve the offense, but the offense needed to be improved at the deadline and nothing happened. And they, they have still kind of rallied around whatever that, that clubhouse has kind of come together and they, they found a way to produce enough runs and the pitching staff has been out of its mind.
Joe Noga: Yeah. And one thing they didn’t do at the trade deadline was trade Stephen Kwan. That for a variety of reasons, that didn’t happen. Even though there interest in him at the deadline. I think that one move or that non move right there really sort of set the course for this comeback in this rally because you’re not doing this without Stephen Kwan on your roster. He’s, he’s sort of been a catalyst and a leader offensively. It would have put even more of a tremendous burden on Jose Ramirez if Kwon wasn’t there. And there’s no way they make this comeback without what he’s given them defensively, what he’s given them at the top of the lineup. He’s, he’s just been, you know, so consistent in the second half.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, great point. Great point. I mean, some of the, some of the moves you make, some of the best moves you make are the ones you don’t make. You know, the trades you don’t make are some of the best trades you, you know, you make. So, you know, not trading Quan was, was essential to this ball club. To, to. It was essential to them doing what they’re doing right now. I mean, like you said, Joey’s been in the middle of everything. Defense, offense, scoring runs, you know, getting innings started. Well, you know, we saw it last night in, in the fifth inning. You know, Rocchio gets a one out, single, steal, second in the fifth inning. Quan comes through with the single to left to score Rocco and knock Flaherty out of the game in the fifth inning. You know, big, big moment in that game.
Joe Noga: Yeah. And you go back earlier, a big moment in the game for George Valera. Rookie sort of dropped into the playoff push with this club when he, he came up, when the rosters expanded, a guy who there been. It’s been a long time coming in terms of waiting for him to, to make his big league debut and, and arrive and, and he, he has, he’s, you know, not getting a ton of it bats. But when he’s had a chance to step in in the lineup, he’s produced. Hit a home run over the weekend in Minnesota, comes back second time around against Flaherty. After striking out in the first inning, he goes up there, picks out a first pitch curveball and drills it over the head of Parker Messick and off of his glove over the wall for his first home run at Progressive Field. Just the emotion that George Valera showed after hitting that home run, kind of, kind of let it all out. He called it the best moment of his life.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, just a great moment for Valera. This is a guy, Joe, that was three, four, five years ago, was a top prospect in the organization, but he, he kept getting Hurt. He had a hamate bone injury. He tore his hamstring last year. He had like 50 RBIs, 90 games for Columbus, then blew out his knee in a, in a collision with the, with the outfield wall. So this guy that, that is, you know, they, they, they DFA’d him at the last, at the end of last season, quickly re signed him, but, you know, so this is, this is a guy that’s been through the mill and he is, he’s come back, he’s with the organization he loves and he’s got a shot. He finally got his chance and you know, and he’s taken advantage of it. You know, he’s got a nice swing, controls the strike zone really well and you know, he’s showing some power. Joe, you know, he doesn’t look like he’s got that big a frame to drive the ball, but that’s exactly what he’s done.
Joe Noga: Yeah, he’s got what they call easy power and that swing really generates the power and the ball jumps off his bat. You know, it was, it was really neat, really special that Brian Rocchio was on third base when Valera hit his home run off Flaherty in the third inning yesterday. Valera and Rocchio signed as international free agents at the same time. They were both about what, 16, 17 years old when they signed. They’ve, they’ve come up through the Guardians, a player development system together, playing basically at every stop along the way with each other. Rocchio really hasn’t had to deal with the, the injury setbacks that Evol Valera has, but he, you know, he looked over there and he, he saw his teammate, his brother, and he was excited for him when he hit that home run. Not often we see in the middle of a post game press conference that, you know, you ask one player about the other, they compliment each other and then they give each other a high five in the middle of the press conference. That was, it was what Rocchio and, and Valera did last night when we were talking about it. So just a lot of fun to see that and certainly very meaningful, you know, moment for both Valera and Rocchio as well. Meaningful start for Tanner Bybey. Boy, you know, the Guardians pitchers starting pitching in general have been lights out for the better part of three weeks now and, and Tanner Bybey certainly carried that on last night. Didn’t have his best stuff. Wasn’t sharp, wasn’t throwing strikes. Pitch count was climbing through the first four innings, had given up a run. And then something clicked in the, the final two Innings, he became more efficient. He, he attacked and, and got through six. And you know, early on I didn’t think he had the stuff in him to get through six innings last night, but you know, that’s, that’s what he did. And it shows you what kind of an ace mentality you have on a night when you don’t have your best stuff to be able to battle and get through six. It really says a lot about Tanner Bidey.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, he’s at 80 pitches after four innings, Joe. You’re sitting there wondering, you know, this, this is, this is going to be a bullpen or bullpen night. But he gets through the, gets through the fifth and 12 pitches. Then he comes out for the six. He’s at 92 pitches, comes out for the six and gets through that in 13 pitches. So he only throws 105 pitches in six innings. Still a lot, but you know, he managed it, he got through it with two efficient innings at the end. And, and Joe, this guy is 3 and oh, with a 0.95 ERA and three starts against Detroit this year. Last week in Detroit, he goes head to head with Scubal, outlasts him and wins that game. Last night he goes, he outlast Flaherty and wins that game. He, you know, he’s, he’s shown, he’s proving himself to be a money pitcher, Joe.
Joe Noga: Yeah, and you get what you pay for eventually. And the guardians, you know, extended him, gave him the contract and now we’re seeing, you know, what they had expected of him all year and he’s finally producing that now during this last half, in this stretch, in, in, in 2025, really, the guardian starters over their last 19 outings given up two runs or fewer in, in all 19 of those starts, they’re 12 and oh, in that stretch, one point what, 35 ERA for the starting rotation. The, the six man starting rotation, just an amazing dominant run. That’s. They have a chance tonight if, if Parker Messick can go out there and give up two or fewer runs. They have a chance tonight to match the 1917 White Sox with 20 straight starts allowing two or fewer runs. That’s the longest streak in major league history since the mound moved to its current distance in 1893. So you know, you’re talking about some, some old timers whose, whose names you probably don’t even recognize that far back, but it’s been a long time since a guardian, since any starting staff has, has gone on a run like this.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, you know that move to a six man rotation, Joe. On September 1st, when the rosters expanded and they called Joey Cantillo up, it’s been, it’s been a, it’s been a strike, man. It’s been, you know, it’s been a perfect game. A.300 game in bowling. I mean, you couldn’t, you couldn’t have asked for much more. If you’re Stephen Vogt, if you’re Carl Willis, if you’re the front office that, you know, concocted that plan, it has, you know, he’s paid dividends. Six man rotation you’ve steamrolled through September and that’s one of the reasons, you know, they’ve caught and passed the Tigers.
Joe Noga: Would you be surprised if other teams sort of look over, especially other teams with young pitching rotations, young starters sort of leading the way in their rotations, if they look over and they see Cleveland’s success in September and make, you know, going to a six man rotation more of a common thing around the league, just based on what Cleveland’s success rate has been. Obviously you have to tailor any sort of plan like that to the individual pitching staff and the guys that you have. But, but for this group of guys here in Cleveland, it’s worked out so well and it’s such a copycat league. I gotta imagine other guys are looking and saying, hey, when our young starters sort of are pushing up against their limits, we need some way to sort of ease the burden on them in September and maybe give them a little extra rest and get them out there, you know, at their best, at their peak, and maybe the results will shoot up as well. I gotta imagine what the Guardians have been able to do is going to get looked at as a model for other teams to try and copy their success.
Paul Hoynes: No doubt about it, Joe. Remember in 2016 when Terry Francona went with the, the all or nothing bullpen, management got him to the World Series, teams said, said, that’s great for the postseason. You know, that’ll work in the postseason, but it can never work in the regular season. Lo and behold, almost every team has, has pulled out bullpen games, numerous bullpen games, you know, since 2016. So that caught on. You know, I think there’s this, the six man rotation is a little, a little bit different because one, Joe, you have to have six good starters. You know, most teams don’t have three good starters. So you know that that’s the big factor. And you also, you know how many, how many teams are going to go with the one less bullpen guy, you know, seven instead of eight, you know, That’s a factor. But I think what worked out for Cleveland, you know, when the roster expanded to 28, they were able to keep the extra, you know, the same amount of bullpen guys and add a starter. So that helped them. So maybe in September we’ll see it again, you know, more, more six man rotations. But teams, you know, during the season have used the six man during various points in the season. But I don’t, I don’t know if they could lock in the whole season, but it’s certainly something that I think we’ll see more of.
Joe Noga: Yeah, I don’t think it’s a strategy that works for an entire season for 162. I think specifically once you arrive at September and like you said, the roster expands, most teams want to add a reliever at that point. But maybe adding the starter is the way to go and Cleveland is again setting trends like you said, and that’s a move that they might make. So we’ll keep an eye on that. All right. A couple of follow ups on things that we talked about the last couple of days. The David Fry injury, and we got more details on that. Prior to getting to the park yesterday, David Fry suffered multiple facial and nasal fractures, non displaced. So they didn’t immediately require surgery. That, that might still be something that Fry has to undergo somewhere down the line in his recovery. After getting drilled in the face by a 99 mile an hour fastball from Tarek Skubal in Tuesday’s, Fry was kept for observation overnight at Cleveland Clinic, released and was home with his family by, by the time we got to the ballpark on Wednesday night, Stephen Vogt said, yeah, you know, he’s, it’s, it’s gruesome. He doesn’t look, he doesn’t look like he’s, he’s very comfortable right now, but he’s doing well and he’s a tough kid and you know, he’s, he’s David Fry and you know, that’s, that’s sort of what they were hoping, you know, that they would have him feeling better and sort of on the road there to recovery. They did place him on the injured list. His season is likely done. Jonathan Rodriguez takes his spot up from Columbus where he had been working out after the AAA season ended. So that’s, that’s where they are with David Fry. I thought it was interesting that, that Stephen Vogt and Tarek Skubal sort of hopped in the car together after the game on Tuesday and drove out to the, the Cleveland Clinic site and visited David Fry in his hotel room. Vogt was very impressed with the character of Terry Scubal. To want to go and do that, especially after his team had just lost a game, an important game to the Guardians.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, that was a classy gesture, Joe, you know, and just it shows you what kind of guy Scubal is. We saw that right after, you know, he, his pitch hit Fry in the face. I mean he was distraught on the mound. You know, he threw his glove down, his hat down, his hands went to his mouth. He couldn’t believe what he just, what had just happened. So for him to go over there and you know, just check in on Fry. Classy move and that’s, that shows you, you know, that he was raised right. I think that was, that was, that was, you know, that was interest. That was, that was, you know, that showed you the respect he has not only for, you know, his opponents but for the game. That’s, that’s how you should handle something like that. So that was, you know, hats off to Scuba.
Joe Noga: Yeah. Scubal told the reporters yesterday that you know, he can tell how much regard the Guardians have for David Fry just based on the way that the, the other guys talk about him and what he knows about the clubhouse. Said he had met him at the All Star game back in 2024 and, and you know, remarked about the, the, the close knit and the, the, the tight knit group that the Guardians players, they had six all stars at that game and how close they all were. He seemed impressed with all that. What do you think Tarek, Scubal and Stephen Vogt talked about in it for, in the 10, 10 minute car ride from Progressive Field to the Cleveland Clinic, you’ve got the, the manager of the, the team that you’re now chasing in the division and the two of you were sort of, do you think they, they didn’t talk baseball? They talk anything but baseball or do you think they talked, talk shop on the way there?
Paul Hoynes: I think they talked anything but baseball. I’m glad they didn’t get in a wrestling match in the back seat or the front seat. I don’t know if this guy just took out one of my players. I’m sitting there, I’m not too happy about the situation. But you know, I think, you know, I think, yeah, that’s, yeah. I wonder who, who, who, who initiated that? Joe? Does Google call up vote? He said, hey, you’re going over to see a Fry because.
Joe Noga: Well, I think the way it went was, you know, Scuba had tried to reach out to Fry but he didn’t have his phone with him. And so, you know, the, the clubbies get together and talk and they, they mentioned something about Vote going over there and school. Instead of getting on the bus with the team, sort of jumped in Votes truck to. To head over and. And then Vote had to drive him back to the. The hotel, the team hotel at the end of the night. I just imagine, you know, in order to distract themselves from the seriousness of the situation, I, I imagined that they were, you know, playing like Disney show tunes or something like that, and Stephen Vogt was singing along carpool karaoke on the way over. Just anything but talking baseball in that moment, I think would have been really good. So we’ll go from there. Hey, uh, we. We were sitting in the press box yesterday, uh, looking up at probably about two hours before the game started, and we noticed the video board, the animations on the video board showing the automatic ball strike system. It was almost like a demo. Like. Yeah, like you would get it like a trade show. You walk by and they were showing just what the, what it would look like if there was a ball or a strike called on the field and what would be shown on the, on the board to the fans. For the ABS system, the challenge system, I thought it was pretty neat, Hoinsey. It’s. We got like a sneak peek of what, what’s coming when the robot umpires take over next year.
Paul Hoynes: Yeah, that was really, really cool. I’m glad you got it on your phone, Joe. And were able to make a post out of it really interesting. You know, that’s in spring training when they used it, Joe. That’s how it looked. They would put it up on the scoreboard. Almost immediately you could see the pitch, you know, where it was in relationship to the strike zone on a challenge. It was really cool. It was, you know, it was a good insight into next season, what the ABs is going to look like. I’m still. I think I’m still kind of curious how it’ll be initially received by the players, by the fans, you know, what impact it’ll have on the pace of the game. So, you know, there’s something to look forward to. But yeah, that was. That was like. We. We saw a preview of it.
Joe Noga: Yeah. And, you know, challenges are. They take about 14 seconds is what the statistics that we got from the league indicate. They also said, you know, these. The parks have to install 12 Hawkeye cameras, the same technology that they use in major tennis matches now to locate whether or not a ball is in or out on the sidelines. They’re Going to use those same hawkeye cameras. 12 of them will be installed in Progressive Field and they’ll upgrade all the technology that they need to in the off season. After I talked to Curtis Danberg from the the club, he said that work will take place in the offseason. Get it ready for next year when ABS becomes the standard, becomes the norm in Major League Baseball. And like Stephen Vogt said, it’s going to change the game forever. All right, before we go, we’re going to talk matchups here and scenarios. Parker Messick going today for the Guardians. We don’t know who the, the Tigers are going to throw. It could bullpen game. Really not a lot of candidates in terms of, you know, starters out there for them, but two of the guys that they mentioned who could be possibilities to, to start as a bullpen game and Tyler Holton and Rafael Montero both pitched last night. So I don’t know who they’ve got left in the tank.
Paul Hoynes: Joe, do you remember last year when they, they played like in Cleveland, they had like a five game series. I think Holton started two of those games in bullpen games. Remember that?
Joe Noga: It was pitching chaos.
Paul Hoynes: Pitching chaos, yeah. And so Holton goes 1⅓ last night. So could he come back and be the opener for an inning? I don’t know.
Joe Noga: Wouldn’t. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit. It all depends on what, what hinches. I’m telling you, Hinges post game comments over the last couple of days. They sound like a suicide hotline. It’s, it’s just awful. You know, he sounds resigned almost and it’s, it’s, it’s just tough having to watch some of these, these Tiger fans basically crash out over losing their lead in the division. All right, the scenarios are go like this. The Guardians can clinch a spot in the postseason with a, with an Astros loss and a win tonight. They will probably celebrate with champagne if they do that. You know, they know what they have in front of them. If the Astros win, then the Guardians can clinch a postseason berth as early as Friday. If they win tonight and tomorrow, beating the Tigers tonight and winning one game against the Rangers in the final series will give the Guardians their 13th American League Central Division championship since 1995. And you know, it’s what, the 15th time they would be in the postseason in the last 30 years. This is an unprecedented run of success for this club.
Paul Hoynes: Joe. It’s been amazing. And as we’ve been saying, if they pull this off, if they win the division, biggest comeback in MLB history from 15 and a half back from, you know, the depths of the depths. Man, they were right. They were. Davy Jones locker. That’s how deep they were out of this race. And to come back and to, to reach the mountaintop, what a season. I mean, it’s just, Just incredible.
Joe Noga: And you don’t normally see a. A guy win Manager of the Year two years in a row, but how do you not vote for Stephen Vogt for Manager of the Year for a second straight year if, if they do complete this comeback? There are other worthy candidates for certain in the American League. John Schneider, Joe Espada, you know, even, even AJ Hinch. But AJ Hinch is the guy who directly lost this lead to Stephen Vogt. How do you vote for AJ Hinch over Stephen Vogt for Manager of the Year in this situation? I just. I can’t comprehend it right now. So, yeah, let’s, let’s see how things shake out. But if they’re able to complete this comeback, I think Stephen Vogt might have another, Another date in New York in, In November.
Paul Hoynes: No doubt about it, Joe. He is. It’s, it’s, it’s just remarkable. It just, it takes your breath away almost when you try to, you know, you know, put the whole thing in perspective. I mean, the Guardians are the story of Major League Baseball right now. They, they are, they are. They’re, they’re. They’re on top of the news. They’re, you know, they’re, they’re, they’re, they’re drawn more hits than the Yankees, any Seattle, anybody else. This is the, this is baseball’s best story going down the stretch. Yeah.
Joe Noga: All right, Hoynsy will check back in with you again tomorrow on the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. We’ll talk to you then.
Paul Hoynes: Okay.