Penn State-Oregon is a Big Ten matchup worthy of a White Out atmosphere at Beaver Stadium.
Two unbeaten teams with elite talent at key spots. Two proven coaches.
The winner of this game will be a major player in the Big Ten title race and the national championship chase.
And if this game is anything like last year’s meeting between the two – a 45-37 Oregon victory – don’t count out the loser in college football’s big picture.
PennLive’s Penn State writers, Bob Flounders and Max Ralph, and OregonLive’s Oregon writers, James Crepea and Aaron Fentress, are here to provide the answers to all the most interesting questions surrounding the battle between James Franklin’s Nittany Lions and Dan Lanning’s Ducks on Saturday night in State College.
Penn State has a bye heading into this game, which just about everyone would agree can’t hurt. But just how big is this edge? Is there something in particular about Oregon that another week’s prep can make a significant difference?
James Crepea, OregonLive: If there’s anything significant to be gained it’s in seeing more game film of younger players and understanding what might confuse them. Oregon has had multiple busted coverages, including one last week, and they stand out because they’re two of the only big plays they’ve allowed this season. But the issue of unequal preparation time for a game that was manufactured to be this enormous is absurd. Oregon has unequal prep with seven opponents this season, six in Big Ten play and only of those benefits UO. If this happened to Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State the outcry would be berzerk.
Aaron Fentress, OregonLive: Having an extra week to prep certainly doesn’t hurt. However, given that Oregon came out of its fourth game unscathed, perhaps the Ducks benefited from having the extra game in a soft schedule to help remain sharp as opposed to having a week off after playing the equally weak schedule Penn State began with. Plus, I have a feeling that Oregon’s coaches have been working a little on Penn State each week.
Bob Flounders, PennLive: Penn State was a relatively healthy team coming out of its win over Villanova. Plus, due to the quality of the non-conference schedule the Lions played, the key starters did not see extended duty. To me, the White Out atmosphere is the far bigger edge. As for Oregon, I think the extra week helps DC Jim Knowles and his players. With the talent level of the Ducks and the tempo they can play at, you can’t have enough simulated reps for a defense. Still, it’s not the real thing.
Max Ralph, PennLive: I don’t put much stock in the bye week being a big advantage for Penn State (or any team) before an important game. It’s often best served as a chance to get healthy, but both teams were already there this early in the season. Plus, James Franklin is just 14-12 in his Penn State career when he’s had more than a week to prepare between games, including the postseason. Extra film study is never a bad thing. But it won’t be the difference in this week’s game.
What is one thing that is sure to be different from the last time the two teams played in Indianapolis?
James Crepea, OregonLive: Oregon’s starting secondary is no longer all under 6-foot tall. Given Penn State’s upgrades at wide receiver, the added length at cornerback is significant.
Aaron Fentress, OregonLive: The Ducks’ rushing attack isn’t as good and they don’t have a sixth-year senior at quarterback.
Bob Flounders, PennLive: There is almost no chance Oregon’s offense will put up 28 points in the first 20 minutes with a Beaver Stadium crowd roaring before every snap.
Max Ralph, PennLive: Penn State will have more than one sack. Oregon’s offensive line is almost completely made over, while the Lion pass rush is still strong in a post-Abdul Carter world.
When Oregon and Penn State last met, the Penn State run game was irresistible with 297 yards and an average of 8.7 yards per carry. PSU returns all but one lineman from that unit. Will that be the defining phase of Saturday’s game? If not, what will be?
James Crepea, OregonLive: It’s easy to say yes to this. But Oregon is 3-1 under Dan Lanning when it allows over 200 yards rushing, including against Penn State last season. I think the quarterback that makes fewer mistakes is more important than the rushing battle. That doesn’t necessarily have to mean turnovers; it can be on incompletions or throws not taken advantage of. I don’t think the gap between the teams is that significant so any missed opportunity could be far more costly than 10 or 20 rushing yards.
Aaron Fentress, OregonLive: “This is the game for me. If Penn State can get its rushing attack going, that will help Drew Allar in a big way, and the points should flow. That would place a ton of pressure on Oregon QB Dante Moore to keep pace. Can he respond like Dillon Gabriel did in the Big Ten title game when he passed for 283 yards and four touchdowns? Nobody knows for sure. Expecting Moore to deliver such a game at Penn State, given his history of underperforming against good Power 4 programs, could prove unrealistic.
Bob Flounders, PennLive: If Penn State runs for 200 or more yards, I don’t see how the Lions lose at home in a White Out, with a defense like this one. The other key is whether this PSU defense can make Oregon’s offense one-dimensional. The Ducks are averaging almost 524 yards per game. I expect Dan Lanning will want to run the ball effectively to tire out PSU’s top defensive linemen – Zane Durant and Dani Dennis-Sutton. Knowles is going to try and limit the Ducks’ run game.
Max Ralph, PennLive: There’s almost zero chance Penn State runs for such an absurd total in two straight matchups, but yes, the PSU ground attack will be the difference maker this weekend. Penn State being able to sustain — and finish — drives behind Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton will limit an explosive Ducks offense. Drew Allar also can’t turn the ball over twice as he did in the Big Ten Championship.
What is the temperature check on the quarterbacks? Has Dante Moore already arrived? Has Drew Allar been good enough against three weaker opponents so far? Who is poised to better handle the atmosphere of a Beaver Stadium Whiteout game?
James Crepea, OregonLive: Moore is playing very well, albeit against bad competition. But it beats the alternative and at this time last year, Dillon Gabriel, for all his experience, was making mistakes against a mix of quality and lowly competition. Allar missed his chance to pad statistics against awful teams. Whether that correlates to a greater issue or not will be more clear after Saturday.
Aaron Fentress, OregonLive: Moore is off to a hot start, but victories over an FCS program and three FBS teams with a combined record of 2-8 only carry so much weight. Drew Allar has been disappointing to start the season, but he has 32 starts, 6,900 passing yards and three playoff games under his belt. Plus, he will be at home. Moore might be more gifted, but I’d take the more experienced QB at home in this situation.
Bob Flounders, PennLive: There is a lot of pressure on Drew Allar. He has been inconsistent through three games and he has not played well in some of the Lions’ biggest losses with him at quarterback: Ohio State twice, Michigan and Notre Dame. Allar made some great throws vs. Oregon last season but his two interceptions were back-breakers. I am interested to see how a young talent like Dante Moore handles the spotlight and the atmosphere. It’s also true that Penn State fans are aware that Allar does not have a signature win.
Max Ralph, PennLive: Penn State deliberately tried to make Allar comfortable with his trio of transfer wide receivers against easy competition, but he didn’t look as good as you’d hope in doing so. His lone interception was ugly, and he appeared to miss some big-play reads and throws. There’s a long body of work to suggest he can bounce back, but it’s fair to worry about him at this moment.
Moore enters with a preferred situation, having cruised through such an easy schedule and playing with a ton of confidence. But it’s impossible to overstate how important the White Out atmosphere will be. Just ask SMU’s Kevin Jennings after last season’s CFP opener.
What is the one intangible that few are talking about that could determine the outcome Saturday night?
James Crepea, OregonLive: Oregon still lacks depth at receiver. Even with Malik Benson playing well, Dakorien Moore delivering immediately and Kenyon Sadiq’s versatility at tight end, there are few other proven weapons. Getting everyone involved against Montana State and Oklahoma State is fine. Who can take the field and make a play against a truly elite defensive back, in a one-score game, in a raucous environment? The Ducks don’t have a definitive answer there yet.
Aaron Fentress, OregonLive: I don’t know how “intangible” this is, but it will be interesting to see if Penn State can take advantage of Oregon’s young cornerbacks. Redshirt freshman Ify Obidegwu and true freshman Brandon Finney Jr. are ballers, but they have never experienced what they are about to go through on Saturday.
Bob Flounders, PennLive: Field position. Penn State has a punter who can boom it. My biggest X factor is probably Penn State sophomore tight end Luke Reynolds. He doesn’t perform like a young player. Reynolds can cause problems after the catch.
Max Ralph, PennLive: The discipline of Jim Knowles’ Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions missed at least 15 tackles in last year’s Big Ten Championship and blew more than a few coverages. A more fine-tuned secondary will keep this thing in striking distance for Drew Allar and Co.