Every season, we are blessed with a few weekends featuring incredible football games everywhere you look. We had it in Week 1, and while Weeks 2, 3, and 4 had their moments, and a big game here and there, they all pale in comparison to what we get this week.
Not only do we have four matchups between ranked teams, but two of them are the kinds of matchups you can imagine seeing in a College Football Playoff semifinal. There are also matchups between teams that will not only impact conference races but could be deciding factors in at-large berths. There’s another Big 12 matchup that could springboard the winner to the front of the line in the race for the Big 12, much like Texas Tech’s win over Utah did last week.
From the time you wake up Saturday until you go to bed, you’ll have to keep your head on a swivel so you don’t miss anything. For now, all you need to do is read my thoughts behind my six favorite bets for the weekend to see if we can make it an enjoyable and profitable Week 5.
Games of the Week
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State: It’s a game that’s been one of the biggest on the schedule this season since the Big Ten first released its 2025 slate. It’s a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship Game, and it’s the first truly difficult test either one of these teams has faced this season. It’s also another chance for Penn State coach James Franklin and the Nittany Lions to get the “can’t win the big one” monkey off their backs.
As a coach, James Franklin is 4-20 against teams ranked in the AP top 10, including a mark of 3-11 when his team is also ranked in the top 10. They’re numbers that get bandied about constantly, but honestly, they don’t mean a whole lot to me. At least, not in the sense of predicting what will happen in the future. Nobody breaks through until they break through, and just because they haven’t broken through doesn’t mean they won’t.
Having said that, I’m not convinced this Saturday night will be the time it happens! At least, not while also covering the spread. I have concerns about this Penn State team. It came into the season with a lot of hype because of everything it brought back from last year’s semifinalist, but it did not bring back its best player on offense (Tyler Warren) or on defense (Abdul Carter). Also, you know who the other team was that was bringing everybody back and was poised to make a run? Clemson, which is 1-3 and has lost to LSU, Georgia Tech and Syracuse. I don’t bring that up because I think Penn State’s the same quality as this year’s Clemson, because it isn’t. I was never high on Clemson coming into the season because we were hyping up a bunch of returners on a team that lost four games last year.
But I also can’t help but wonder if we all have a little too much faith in experience sometimes.
Further concerning me is how Penn State’s looked to start the season. It hasn’t played anybody, but while it hasn’t played poorly, the Nittany Lions haven’t looked overly impressive either. I fully expect Penn State to show things in this game it hasn’t shown yet this year, but it’s hard to trust a team to just flip the switch in a spot like this when it has so consistently struggled in spots like this.
On the flip side, Oregon hasn’t faced the stiffest competition, either. This will be Dante Moore’s first road start in years, and it will be in an insanely difficult environment to deal with. I do not expect Oregon to look nearly as efficient as it has in its first three games. The fact of the matter is, I expect it to be close, and I think it’ll be a lower-scoring affair than what we saw in the Big Ten Championship. All of which has me eager to grab the 3.5 points if I can get them. The Pick: Oregon +3.5 (-110) at FanDuel
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia: Do you remember what happened in this game last year? Let me refresh your memory. Playing at home, Alabama hit Georgia with an opening salvo not dissimilar to what we saw when the Dawgs were in Knoxville two weeks ago. Alabama jumped out to a 28-0 lead early in the second quarter and led 30-7 at halftime. The second half was all Dawgs, as Georgia climbed all the way back and took a 34-33 lead with 2:31 left to play when Carson Beck connected with Dillon Bell for a 67-yard touchdown pass.
Then this happened.
Alabama held on to win 41-34. I don’t know that this year’s game will be as crazy, though I’d be thrilled if it is. What I do think is that it’ll be high-scoring. These teams have met frequently in recent years, and over the last six meetings dating back to 2018, their games have averaged 61.7 points.
Ty Simpson struggled mightily against Florida State in Alabama’s opener, but he has looked much better against ULM and Wisconsin. Obviously, those two teams aren’t of the same caliber as Georgia, but we saw Georgia’s secondary struggle plenty with Tennessee’s passing attack two weeks ago, and Kalen DeBoer has a good history against teams that run a similar defensive scheme to the Dawgs. Just ask Dan Lanning about his run-ins with DeBoer while he was still at Washington.
As for Alabama, defensively, its overall numbers are strong, but they’re skewed by those last two games. Florida State gave this team a lot of problems, and while Georgia’s offensive scheme is different, we’ve seen Gunner Stockton used as a runner. Matchup-wise, I believe the Georgia receivers could present some problems for Alabama’s secondary as well. I’m not expecting a 75-point explosion like last season, but 31-27 feels very possible. The Pick: Over 52.5 (-110) at FanDuel
Lock of the Week
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois: Illinois got the life beaten out of it by Indiana last week in a 63-10 loss, but while the beating was as thorough as thorough can be, the final score does need some context. The Illini were down two of their starting defensive backs to start the game, including an All-Big Ten first-teamer in Xavier Scott. They then lost more defensive backs as the game went on, which, when combined with Curt Cignetti taking all that “Illinois is the next Indiana” hype extremely personally, led to a beatdown of epic proportions.
That game is over, but the injuries Illinois suffered aren’t. Scott will once again be out, as is backup corner Torrie Cox, who was injured in the game. Jaheim Clarke didn’t play last week and hasn’t played all year. He might be out for this one still, too. And Illinois’ starting safety Matthew Bailey suffered a concussion, and his status remains up in the air.
The Illini possibly being down that many players in the secondary is not a good thing with USC coming to town. Now, the Trojans are dealing with injury concerns of their own. Ja’Kobi Lane didn’t play against Michigan State last week, and he’s questionable. Makai Lemon is not. He’ll play, and he’ll be the focal point of a USC offense that’s been one of the most explosive in the country. I get the concern over “body clocks,” seeing as how this game will start at 9 a.m. Pacific, but I’ve always found body blows to be far more impactful on game outcomes than body clocks, and Illinois has suffered plenty. The Pick: USC -6.5 (-112) at DraftKings
Under of the Week
Rice at Navy: Those of you who have read this column for years, or followed me in general, know all about my love for Service Academy Unders. The theory being that option teams rarely throw, which keeps the clock moving, which leads to fewer possessions, and fewer possessions mean fewer opportunities to score. It’s worked wonders for the under in such games for 20 years now.
Well, Rice is not a service academy, but it plays like one. The Owls are an option team and have run the ball on 77.2% of their offensive snaps. Only Navy and Army have run it more often, which means the Owls run more often than Air Force does. I am treating this game no differently than I would if it were Army and Navy, but there’s one huge difference between this and a traditional service academy game. The totals in those games have dropped into the 30s in recent years. This one is sitting at 44.5. The Pick: Under 44.5 (-108) at DraftKings
Team Total of the Week
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas: The Notre Dame offense exorcised some demons last week against Purdue, particularly in the run game. After rushing for 229 yards and only 3.4 yards per carry against Miami and Texas A&M, the Irish ran over Purdue for 254 yards and 5.91 yards per carry last week. They also rushed for five touchdowns. This Arkansas defense will likely provide the same runway.
Arkansas’ defense has been abysmal to start the season. Its numbers are skewed by games against Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, but the last two weeks against Ole Miss and Memphis have seen this unit allow 3.04 points per possession and give up explosive plays on 13.38% of snaps. They’ve especially been torched through the air, which is something Notre Dame QB CJ Carr will exploit. Even when the run game struggled against Miami and A&M, Carr played pretty well in both games and was fantastic last week. The Pick: Notre Dame o34.5 (-110) at DraftKings
Upset of the Week
Kentucky at South Carolina: I am on the record with my feelings that night games at Williams-Brice Stadium look like one of the most electric atmospheres in college football, and I hope to get there for one someday. However, that wish does not cloud my judgment of this South Carolina offense. The stadium might be electric, but the offense ain’t. As a team, South Carolina has scored 89 points this year, but notice I said as a team. As an offense, South Carolina has scored 61 points. Its defense and special teams have scored 28. The 15.25 points Carolina’s offense is scoring ranks 126th nationally, and it hasn’t performed much better with LaNorris Sellers than without him.
While I don’t have much faith in the Kentucky offense, the South Carolina offense hasn’t shown me enough to lead me to believe it will be able to win this game convincingly. I expect it’ll be close and ugly. Considering South Carolina also has a turnover rate of 9.8%, which ranks 76th nationally, that means it’s not all that crazy to think a mistake could prove fatal here. So while I believe South Carolina wins this game more often than not, I don’t think it wins two-thirds of the time, which is what it would have to do to not jump on Kentucky at this price. The Pick: Kentucky (+205) at DraftKings
BetsLast WeekSeasonUnits
Games of the Week
1-1
4-4
-1.35
Lock of the Week
0-1
1-3
-2.32
Upset of the Week0-11-3-1.07
Overall
3-3
13-11
0.09