With the Ryder Cup set to start on Friday, a supercomputer has predicted a very tight result between Team USA and Team Europe. The biennial contest between 12 of USA’s biggest golf superstars and their European counterparts will take place at the 98-year-old Bethpage Black course 40 miles east of New York City.
Team Europe are the current holders after their 16.5-11.5 thrashing of the USA in Rome in 2023, bouncing back from a heavy defeat of their own at Whistling Straits two years prior. Hoping to reverse those fortunes, Team USA will be captained by Keegan Bradley, and boast other big names such as Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Bryson DeChambeau in their ranks. For Team Europe, Luke Donald retains his captaincy from 2023. He will lead the likes of Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Jon Rahm.
According to a supercomputer prediction model conducted by Boyle Sports, the 2025 edition of the prestigious event will be incredibly close.
2025 Ryder Cup Tipped to be a Tight Affair
The hosts have been given a 57.1% chance of regaining the title, while Europe have a 35.3% chance of becoming the first team since 2012 to win the Ryder Cup away from home since 2012, the dramatic ‘Miracle of Medinah’ comeback to win 14.5–13.5 from 10-6 down on the final day.
The supercomputer has also predicted the likeliest points score for 2025, with another 14.5-13.5 result, this time in the USA’s favour, being given a 14.4% chance of happening. Interestingly, however, the second most favoured outcome is an 18.5-9.5 victory for the Americans at 12.5%, with the reverse score being given just a 6.8% chance. The third most likely scoreline is a 13.5-14.5 win for Europe at 10.4%, while the fourth is a five-point win for the US.
The percentage chance of a draw is considered to be 7.6%, in which case the title would be retained by the holders. Since Europeans first entered the competition in 1979, a draw has only occurred once, at The Belfry in Warwickshire in 1989.
While the one-point victory for the US is the most likely specific outline, the supercomputer hasn’t ruled out a hammering for either side. The probability of the final margin of victory being five points or more is at 56.8%, as each of the last five competitions have ended that way. The likelihood of that margin extending to six or more is at 42.5%.
Out of the 10,000 simulations performed by the model, only 8% predicted a 10-point victory, with Team USA’s Whistling Straits win being the only example of such a margin since 1975.
