The NFC West is shaping up to be a beast this year. The 49ers are undefeated despite a slew of major injuries — Nick Bosa is out for the season now, with Brock Purdy and George Kittle still MIA — and the Rams look very much like a strong contender in the NFC as long as Matthew Stafford is healthy.
The Seahawks served notice on Sunday in Week 3 that they’re going to be in the mix, too. An ugly Week 1 loss was followed by a smoke-and-mirrors Week 2 win, but Sunday’s slapping of the Saints was nothing short of impressive. Seattle jumped all over New Orleans from the get go and never let up. That likely explains the significant line move, with Seattle now favored heading into Thursday night (this is why you should read my Bet It Now column, as you’d have a full three points of glorious CLV in your pocket already).
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This is a pretty massive game for the division, at least early in the season. The Seahawks and Cardinals have to both know winning these matchups early in the year goes a long way when it comes to the NFC West standings and the NFC wild card down the road, and both sides enter this divisional clash with 2-1 records.
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Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)
Seahawks money line
There’s certainly something a little fishy with backing the short road favorite on a short week in a divisional matchup, but I can’t get past the combination of Seattle having the best unit — by far — in this game with its defense and the injury report simply trending massively in the Seahawks’ favor.
The Seahawks could get running back Zach Charbonnet (practiced in full Tuesday), Devon Witherspoon (limited) and Julian Love (limited) and potentially a few other key defensive pieces back for this game. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have a slew of offensive linemen whose statuses are up in the air, including starting tackle Paris Johnson. Plus, the team just lost starting running back James Conner for the year. Arizona’s secondary is pretty banged up as well, which should allow Sam Darnold to fire off some passes downfield
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Seahawks vs. Cardinals player props
Kyler Murray Over 5.5 total carries
The Seahawks are sporting one of the best defenses in football, so any Overs for the Cardinals is a little scary — and glance around at the market, they’re pretty submerged, which is telling for the game as a whole.
I’m definitely tempted to take the Over on Murray’s rush yards total, but the carries is even more enticing: Murray behind a less-than-healthy offensive line should equate to some scrambles from the pocket, it’s very possible Arizona dials up some designed runs for their speedy quarterback, and we also have the backdoor option here of Arizona winning a close game and Murray taking some knees at the end of the game to clear this total.
Despite a “meh” rushing season so far, Murray has cleared this number in all three of Arizona’s games so far this year.
Trey McBride longest catch Under 20.5
McBride’s gone Over this number twice this season, but a closer look at his Next Gen Stats profile shows a guy who isn’t running many — if any — deep routes. His 31-yard catch against the Panthers was largely YAC, and the only other catch that he went Over 20 yards on this season was a seam route against the Saints in Week 1.
Seattle gave up two scores to tight ends in Week 1, but no long catches. The Seahawks also kept Pat Friermuth and Jonnu Smith Under this number in Week 2 and gave up just one long catch to Juwan Johnson late in the fourth quarter in Week 3 when the game was well out of hand and the defense was composed largely of backups.
With Marvin Harrison, Jr. struggling to generate much production in Year 2 and Arizona on a backup running back, I firmly expect the Seahawks’ primary focus on Thursday will be taking away McBride.
Tory Horton Over 22.5 receiving yards
The Seahawks might be making a subtle change in their wide receiver rotation early in the season as it appears Tory Horton could be seeing as many routes and/or snaps as Cooper Kupp — or at the very least, they really like and trust the fifth-round rookie out of Colorado State and are giving him ample opportunity to step up early in the 2025 season.
This is a low number against a secondary that is potentially down some starters and Horton potentially serving as a secondary or tertiary focus for the Seahawks on offense.
Trey Benson Over 20.5 receiving yards
Another short recieving yards prop, although this one is going to a running back instead of a wide receiver. Benson’s the unquestioned starter now with Conner’s season unfortunately done. That should mean plenty of carries, but I’m more interested in his receiving props: Conner and Benson totaled 20 targets from Murray in three games combined, and I’m allocating a significant portion of that to Benson versus a 50-50 split elsewhere.
Benson is much more capable of a big play than Conner when catching the ball, and if the Cardinals find themselves trailing, he should clear this easily via game script.
TNF anytime touchdown scorer props
Jaxson Smith-Njigba +160
This line keeps bee-bopping and skatting back and forth around the +150 range. I think anything north of that number is good value: it could easily be +135 at a fair price. Even though the total in this game isn’t massive and JSN isn’t a red-zone target monster, he is an overall target hog, getting a ridiculous 29 looks from Darnold through three games, including “only” six targets last week in Seattle’s blowout win over the Saints where the Seahawks weren’t even throwing for essentially three quarters.
Against a Cardinals secondary that’s depleted, there’s a real good chance Seattle’s No. 1 option finds paydirt at some point on Thursday.
Kyler Murray +300
This is a little bit of a longer shot here on a guy who isn’t built like someone who’s going to carry the ball a ton near the goal line, but Murray does have two carries (for just one yard) inside the 10 this year, and it wouldn’t shock me in a game of this importance — at least early in the season — for offensive coordinator Drew Petzing to scheme up either some kind of read option or a designed run for Murray when the Cardinals get down towards the goal line, particularly if they’re not able to move the ball effectively in the physical ground game.