Mining stocks are enjoying a blockbuster year on the back of a record rally in precious metals, with several names posting triple-digit gains and crushing even the most growth-linked AI stocks—and analysts say the run is far from over.
Triple-digit returns in silver and gold mining exchange-traded funds have reawakened the long-dormant commodities sector, with industry experts calling it the strongest precious metals bull market in half a century.
According to 22V Research analyst Colin Fenton, “despite the daily new price highs in gold, silver, and other markets, it is not too late for investors who need to boost portfolio performance in 4Q2025 to get involved or reinvolved in commodities.”
The expert described it as a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity for investors in mining stocks.
Precious Metals Dominate The Mining Leaderboard
Few sectors have outperformed like precious metals this year. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF GLD is up 43% year to date, while the iShares Silver Trust ETF SLV has climbed 52%. Both ETFs have beaten over 94% of the S&P 500 constituents.
But it’s the miners where returns are exploding. The VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF GDXJ has skyrocketed 110%, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF GDX is up 106%. Meanwhile, the Global X Silver Miners ETF SIL has gained 105%. Each has outperformed 99% of S&P 500 names.
Newmont Corp. NEM, the world’s largest gold miner, has surged 125% year to date, joining a short list of S&P 500 stocks with triple-digit gains—including Robinhood Markets Inc. HOOD, Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC STX and AppLovin Corp. APP.
Fenton attributes this outperformance to operating leverage. “So long as commodity prices persist in a bull market, diversified baskets of affiliated producers’ shares will tend to post a 2x to 3x higher price return than the underlying commodity,” he said.
The ratio of GDX’s 118.9% return to gold’s 37.9% in 2025 reflects a 3.2x multiple.
Industrial metals aren’t far behind. The Global X Copper Miners ETF COPX is up 42% year to date, beating 93% of the S&P 500. Shares of Antofagasta plc ANFGF, viewed by 22V as a global bellwether, are up 52% and outperform 95% of the index.
Energy Stocks Are Quiet Outperformers
Oil names have also delivered big:
CVR Energy Inc. CVI, the standout, has an 88% year-to-date return, outperforming 99% of the S&P 500.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPC is up 37%
Valero Corp. VLO has climbed 39%
HF Sinclair Corp. DINO has surged 51%.
Geopolitical tensions continue to fuel the case for energy stocks. Renewed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries and Moscow’s diesel export curbs have raised concerns, reinforcing oil’s role as a geopolitical hedge.
Independent U.S. natural gas producers also saw strong gains through mid-year but were hit by a drawdown driven by coal fuel-switching policies. The Trump administration delayed planned coal plant retirements in Michigan, Maryland and Arizona, temporarily undercutting natural gas demand.
Antero Resources Corp. AR, Range Resources Corp. RRC and private firm Expand Energy Corp. EXE saw their YTD gains evaporate. As of late September, EXE is up just 1%, RRC is down 1%, and AR is off 5%. EQT Corp. EQT, however, never slipped into negative territory and is now up 11% YTD.
Fenton said the drawdown appears to have ended on Aug. 19, and that recent gains suggest a new entry point for investors who missed the initial rally in 2024.
Commodity Cycle Still In Early Stage
According to 22V’s framework, the global commodity cycle likely began in 2024, placing us in year two of a typical five-year bull run. Historically, these cycles start with precious metals, followed by industrial metals, and finally energy.
Fenton emphasized that unlike previous cycles, today’s dynamics favor refined products, electricity and natural gas over crude oil. “We want to stay vigilantly focused on the investment opportunities in the IPPs, the natural gas producers, the copper and silver miners, and vendors of electrical equipment,” he said.
If 22V’s targets materialize—$4,000 gold, $50 silver, and $11,000 copper in the first half of 2026—this cycle could end up being one of the most profitable commodity rallies of the modern era.
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