Every few decades, the relative performance of asset classes shifts in ways that only become obvious with the benefit of hindsight. In the late 1990s, growth equities—especially technology stocks—were the undisputed leaders, drawing in capital, commanding attention, and dominating headlines. At the same time, silver was mired in underperformance, seemingly irrelevant to most investors.
Yet from those depths, went on to outperform technology by more than 1,000% over the following decade. That reversal shocked many who had written the metal off, and it served as a reminder that leadership in markets is never permanent.
Fast forward to today, and the charts of the SILVER/NDX and SILVER/IXIC ratios suggest that we may once again be approaching a similar inflection point. The technical evidence is steadily building that silver has bottomed against US equities, particularly against the technology-heavy .
The last time we saw a setup this compelling was at the turn of the millennium, and that cycle unfolded into a decade of historic silver outperformance. The question now is whether history is preparing to rhyme, setting the stage for another powerful rotation.
With that in mind, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the charts are signaling, why this setup carries such weight, and how it could shape the investment landscape in the years ahead.
Understanding the SILVER/NDX and SILVER/IXIC Ratios
Before diving into the charts, it’s important to clarify what these ratios actually represent. The SILVER/NDX and SILVER/IXIC ratios compare the price of silver to the and the broader , respectively. In simple terms, they reveal whether investors are favoring hard assets, like silver, or high-duration tech stocks.
When the ratios are falling, it signals that tech is in favor and risk appetite across equities is strong. Conversely, when the ratios begin to rise, it means silver is outperforming the Nasdaq indexes, pointing to a shift in relative strength away from growth equities.
This matters because these ratios often serve as early warnings of de-risking and capital rotation. High-duration tech stocks tend to thrive when liquidity is abundant, real yields are low, and investors are comfortable paying steep valuations for future earnings. Silver, on the other hand, typically attracts flows when inflation worries rise, the dollar weakens, or equity risk appetite starts to fade.
Therefore, a turn higher in either ratio usually signals money quietly leaving growth stocks and moving toward commodities, often before the headline indexes reflect the change. In that sense, the SILVER/NDX and SILVER/IXIC ratios are more than just abstract measures. They are practical, forward-looking gauges of where investor dollars want to live. And if both continue to climb, the message will be clear: the market is de-risking, and capital is rotating out of high-duration tech and back into hard assets like silver.
The SILVER/NDX Ratio: Echoes of the Dot-Com Low
The SILVER/NDX ratio, which compares silver’s price to the Nasdaq-100 Index (excluding financials), offers a long-term perspective on how hard assets perform relative to large-cap growth stocks. And its chart tells a story that stretches across multiple decades of market cycles.
From the mid-1980s into 1999, the ratio was locked in a persistent decline as equities, fueled by the dot-com boom, overwhelmed hard assets. That bearish stretch culminated in a cyclical low between November 1999 and November 2000, coinciding with the very peak of the dot-com bubble. What followed was dramatic: from that trough, silver began a historic run of relative outperformance, surging 1,159% into August 2011.
This was one of the most striking examples of capital rotation in modern history, as investors shifted away from high-duration tech and into hard assets under the combined weight of cyclical and macroeconomic forces.
Figure 1: Silver-to-Nasdaq-100 Ratio weekly chart cycle lows
Fast forward to today, and the picture looks strikingly familiar. After forming a double top between April and August 2011, the ratio spent 13 years grinding lower, retracing nearly the entire bull phase. Yet since February 2024, that decline has stalled.
Rather than pressing into new lows, the ratio has begun to curl higher in a rounded bottom pattern, a classic technical structure that often signals the early stages of a major reversal. Even more compelling, this base is taking shape near the same cyclical low zone that defined the 1999–2000 turning point, hinting at a symmetry across cycles.
If the rounded bottom resolves upward, silver could once again be on the verge of a major cycle of outperformance against tech stocks. Just as the dot-com low gave way to a decade-long silver surge, this emerging base could mark the beginning of a fresh era of capital rotation away from growth equities and back toward commodities.
Naturally, failure is possible. A decisive break below the base floor would negate the pattern and defer the rotation expectation. But as long as price action respects the rounded contour and continues to push toward the neckline, the setup remains intact, and the potential upside is incredibly powerful.
The SILVER/IXIC Ratio: A Base-Building Descending Triangle
The broader SILVER/IXIC ratio, which compares silver to the entire Nasdaq Composite, tells a story that runs parallel to the SILVER/NDX. Since August 2020, the ratio has been locked in a descending triangle pattern, a formation defined by lower highs compressing against a relatively flat support base.
Typically, descending triangles carry bearish implications, signaling that sellers continue to cap rallies while buyers repeatedly defend the same floor. Yet context matters. When such a pattern emerges after a prolonged downtrend, an upside resolution can flip the script entirely, marking the start of a powerful reversal.
Figure 2: Descending triangle pattern on Silver-to-Nasdaq Composite Ratio weekly chart
What makes this particular setup compelling is its alignment with longer-term moving averages. Both the 52-week and 104-week simple moving averages (SMAs) have been flattening since 2020, reflecting the slow but steady base-building cycle. Then, in May 2025, the 52-week SMA crossed above the 104-week SMA, delivering a bullish crossover that often signals a regime shift in relative strength.
Adding weight to the case, the ratio now trades above both moving averages, reinforcing the notion that silver is quietly regaining ground against the Nasdaq.
All things considered, the SILVER/IXIC chart is sending the same quiet but insistent message as SILVER/NDX: the decade-long downtrend may be nearing its end, and momentum is tilting toward silver. A weekly close above the triangle’s upper boundary would transform what is usually a bearish continuation pattern into a bullish breakout, confirming the first sustained pro-silver rotation since 2011.
Of course, risks remain. A decisive close below both the moving averages or the horizontal base of the triangle would postpone the rotation expectation. Still, with price pressing against resistance rather than probing support, the balance of evidence currently favors an upside resolution.
These Ratios are a Macro Signal of What’s to Come
When ratios like SILVER/NDX and SILVER/IXIC bottom after long downtrends, it’s rarely just a chart pattern; it reflects deeper macro currents shifting beneath the surface. The last time silver decisively turned higher against tech stocks, in 1999–2000, it wasn’t an isolated event.
That move coincided with the bursting of the dot-com bubble, a surge in global commodity demand led by China, and an unprecedented wave of monetary expansion that culminated in the post–Global Financial Crisis era. In that context, silver’s outperformance was not random; it was a direct mirror of investors reallocating away from growth equities into hard assets as the macro environment transformed.
Today, the setup looks strikingly similar. Inflationary pressures have proven stickier than policymakers anticipated, sovereign debt levels are at historic highs, and geopolitical instability is shifting from a cyclical flare-up to a structural backdrop. At the same time, tech valuations remain elevated after a decade of ultra-low rates and liquidity support that may not be sustainable in the years ahead.
Against this backdrop, the fact that both the SILVER/NDX and SILVER/IXIC ratios are bottoming near multi-decade cycle lows carries weight. It suggests that capital is beginning to rotate quietly beneath the surface. If these breakouts confirm, they would serve as an early warning that the market regime is changing—away from high-duration growth stocks and toward commodities and real assets.
Overall, these charts aren’t just technical curiosities; they are signaling that investors are starting to prioritize scarcity, tangibility, and hedging properties over the promise of future cash flows. And just as in 2000, those who recognize the rotation early may have a roadmap for the next decade of capital flows.
The Bottom Line
The last time silver bottomed against tech stocks, most investors dismissed it as irrelevant. Few believed the metal could possibly outperform the Nasdaq by more than 1,000% in the years that followed. Yet that is exactly what happened. Now, after more than a decade of underperformance, silver is once again carving out what appears to be a major bottom relative to U.S. equities.
The evidence is visible on both key ratios. The SILVER/NDX ratio is forming a rounded bottom that looks strikingly similar to the 1999–2000 low, while the SILVER/IXIC ratio is pressing against the upper boundary of a descending triangle alongside a bullish moving average crossover. Taken together, these setups are sending the same message: capital is starting to rotate away from growth equities and toward commodities.
If these patterns resolve to the upside, the implications are profound. We could be standing at the beginning of a new multi-year cycle where silver outshines tech, echoing the 2000–2011 period of historic outperformance. For investors and position traders, these charts represent a roadmap for capital flows in the decade ahead.
Of course, patience is essential until confirmation arrives. But make no mistake: this is high-quality potential energy. When it releases, it could mark the dawn of a new era where silver and hard assets reclaim leadership from growth and tech.
The last time it happened, few recognized it until the move was well underway. This time, the charts are giving us an early heads-up. The real question is whether we’re ready to listen.