By Calum Henderson

Copyright thespinoff

Investigating a potential hex ahead of a big weekend of code.

What’s all this?

Spinoff founder Duncan Greive had a beer with a bloke last Friday, and this bloke had a theory: that the All Blacks and Warriors never win on the same weekend. His prophecy came to pass when the Warriors lost to the Sea Eagles later that night, and sensing he could be onto something big, Greive escalated the theory to The Spinoff’s sports data department (me, the Tribe app and a sheet of A4 paper) to find out if it there was any truth to it. And so here we are.

Well… is it true?

Absolutely not. The All Blacks and Warriors have won on the same weekend three times this year already! Before last weekend, the Warriors’ previous four losses were on weekends without an All Blacks match.

Has it ever been true?

In fairness – and this might have been the basis for the theory – it was the case for almost two years, from August 2023 to July 2025. There were seven weekends over that period where both the All Blacks and Warriors played, and on all of those occasions at least one of them lost.

But if there was any kind of same-weekend curse over this period, it was broken on the 13th of July this year, when the Warriors beat the Tigers in Auckland the day after the All Blacks beat France in Wellington.

If you zoom out to take in the last five years, which is as far back as I could be bothered going to debunk this theory, you’ll see that streak was an anomaly. Since 2020, the All Blacks and Warriors have played on the same weekend 27 times, and both teams have won on 10 (37%) of those occasions.

Are the Warriors more or less likely to win on a weekend when the All Blacks are also playing?

Good news: according to the last five years’ data, the Warriors are 4% more likely to win on a weekend when the All Blacks are also playing. They’ve won 44% of their games since 2020, and 48% of their games on All Black weekends.

And vice versa?

Bad news: by the same measure, the All Blacks are 3% more likely to lose on a weekend when the Warriors are also playing. They’ve won 73% of their games since 2020, but only 70% of their games on Warriors weekends.

What about weekends when the Warriors are in the finals?

The last time the Warriors played finals footy was on September 9, 2023, the same weekend the Rugby World Cup kicked off in France. It was not a happy weekend: the Warriors lost to the Panthers in their qualifying final, while the All Blacks were beaten by the hosts in their opening match.

Overall, the Warriors have played 21 finals games dating back to their first appearance in 2001, and won nine (43%) of those. These games have fallen on the same weekend as All Blacks tests 10 times, with both teams winning on three (30%) of those occasions.

But while the Warriors may be statistically less likely to win a finals match on a weekend when the All Blacks are also playing, it’s not all bad news: the All Blacks have never lost on a weekend when the Warriors are playing finals footy.

What about when the All Blacks and Warriors are playing at the same time?

This is the rare and unpopular situation we find ourselves in this weekend, with the Warriors v Panthers elimination final kicking off at 6.05pm in Auckland, before the All Blacks v Springboks test kicks off in Wellington at 7.05pm.

The last and possibly only other time New Zealand experienced this specific kind of oval ball eclipse appears to have been in 2018, when, just like this weekend, the Warriors were playing the Panthers in an elimination final – only this match was in Sydney, while the All Blacks were playing Argentina in Nelson. The Warriors lost that game, while the All Blacks won theirs.

There is one important caveat to note: the Warriors have never played a finals match in New Zealand on the same weekend (let alone at the same time) the All Blacks were also playing on home soil. In other words, we’re in uncharted territory this weekend, history cannot guide us, anything could happen.

Wait… what about the Black Ferns?

The Black Ferns weren’t included in the original theory, but they do have a World Cup quarter final on Saturday night, so let’s take a look at what happens when all three teams play on the same weekend. This has happened six times in the last five years, and the stars have aligned for all three teams to win on three (50%) of those occasions.

This year the teams have played on the same weekend three times, all with different outcomes: everybody wins (July 12-13 – a weekend which also saw the Warriors Women win, in case you were wondering), All Blacks lose and the other two win (August 23-25) and Warriors lose and the other two win (September 5-7). If this pattern were to continue, we would see the All Blacks and Warriors win this weekend at the expense of a Black Ferns loss. Happy now?

What’s the key takeaway from all this?

Rest assured there is no hex or historical precedent stopping the All Blacks and Warriors (and Black Ferns and Warriors Women) from all winning this weekend. Also, don’t believe everything you hear at the pub.

Do you have an unverified sports theory you’d like The Spinoff to investigate? Leave a comment below or send us an email.