It’s no surprise that casino giant Caesars Entertainment Inc CZR has been a serious laggard this year. Since the beginning of January, CZR stock has shed more than 21% of market value. Along with specific financial concerns — such as lower-than-expected free cash flow due to high capital expenditures — Caesars has been dogged by a challenging operational landscape stemming from rising interest rates and consumer pressures. Still, some evidence for a possible turnaround exists.
On the broader level, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%. Not only was the move the first cut since December of last year, policymakers signaled that further easing may follow. Fundamentally, the news might not directly push customers through Caesars’ doors. However, the apparent dovish pivot in monetary policy may drive multiple tailwinds.
Aside from lowering Caesars’ future financing expenses, the Fed’s decision should help improve the forward cost of capital for all debt-issuing companies. All other things being equal, the reduced benchmark interest rate should help fuel corporate investments. In turn, the job market — which has been revised downward recently — may pick up. If so, that should be net positive for CZR stock.
Another interesting note is the underlying options data. Large traders appear to be getting more optimistic about Caesars’ forward prospects. For example, on Sept. 9, Benzinga’s options scanner picked up a put option sweep with potentially bullish implications. Specifically, the sold puts carried a strike price of $30 with an expiration date of March 20, 2026.
Such a trade implies expected upside for CZR stock as the current market price is below that of the strike. Therefore, the put already has deep intrinsic value, which doesn’t make much sense to sell — unless the trader anticipates a boost in the underlying share price.
Skepticism May Be The Fuel That Drives CZR Stock
Ordinarily, a sharp rise in bearish pressure is not conducive for the target security. That’s the situation CZR stock faces, which currently carries a short interest of 14.8% of its float. Also, its short interest ratio is 4.9 days to cover, which means that it would take nearly a business week for traders to fully unwind their short exposure.
While it’s always difficult to decisively determine intent from one or two data points, the aforementioned metrics suggest that the bears who are betting against CZR stock are relatively committed to the downside trade. This assertion wouldn’t be surprising given legitimate concerns of stagflation and other fundamental headwinds impacting the casino entertainment business.
Still, being pessimistic on a downtrodden name is hardly a risk-free venture, especially in a meme-friendly environment. All it takes is for enough speculators to push the target security beyond critical mass — a phenomenon known as the short squeeze. Basically, the rush to cover a short position creates buying pressure. If the stars align, that moment could come soon.
From January 2021 to early September 2025, the correlation coefficient between CZR stock and its short interest (as a percentage of float) landed at -50.62%. In statistical language, this would be considered a weak inverse relationship, meaning that as short interest rises, CZR tends to fall in value.
What’s interesting, though, is that from June of last year, the correlation coefficient between the aforementioned metrics clocked in at -80.66%. That’s a strong inverse relationship. Further, if this relationship continues to hold, then a bullish reversal in CZR stock could materialize. That’s because these two data points are at opposite ends relative to each other.
Finally, it’s not an orthodox methodology but heuristically, CZR’s short interest may be in the middle of charting a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, this may imply that the stock and its short interest may do a switcheroo.
Taking A Staggered Approach With Caesars Entertainment
Over the long-term framework, the bulls may attempt to drive CZR stock to the $40 target, which is roughly where it traded early this year before collapsing. However, exactly when a potential short squeeze might materialize is anyone’s guess. It may be prudent, then, to consider acquiring a position in the open market. This way, you don’t have to worry about expiration dates.
For an options-specific trade, I’m tempted by the 28/29 bull call spread expiring Nov. 21. This transaction involves buying the $28 call and simultaneously selling the $29 call, for a net debit paid of $37 (the most that can be lost in the trade).
Should CZR stock rise through the second-leg strike price ($29) at expiration, the maximum profit is $63, a payout of over 170%. Breakeven lands at $28.37, which is about 7.4% above the current market price. In any other circumstance, that would be considered outrageously aggressive. However, a short squeeze can be explosive.
It’s not a trade for everyone. That said, if you’re looking for the next big speculative idea beyond artificial intelligence and quantum computing, CZR stock could be it.
The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.
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