Every Tuesday this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett will offer his early ATS picks for every NFL game.
The final NFL weekend of September is upon us, and it offers something for everyone.
The slate starts with a big NFC West matchup between the Seahawks and Cardinals, and Sunday’s action starts early, with a 9:30 p.m. EDT kickoff of Vikings at Steelers.
Other Week 4 highlights include Eagles vs. Buccaneers, Colts vs. Rams, Ravens vs. Chiefs and Packers vs. Cowboys on SNF.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 25-23
After a 7-9 showing in Week 1, our early ATS picks went 9-7 in Week 2 and 9-7 in Week 3.
All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT
Seahawks at Cardinals (-1.5) — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Seahawks +1.5
The Seahawks (2-1) are a great value play at +1.5 at DK against the Cardinals (2-1), as other books including ESPN BET currently list Seattle at -1.5.
I expect a close game in primetime between these division rivals, but give me a Seahawks defense that has looked great against Brock Purdy, Aaron Rodgers and Spencer Rattler to have another strong performance at Kyler Murray’s expense on Thursday night.
Vikings (-2.5) at* Steelers — 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
Pick: Vikings -2.5
The Steelers (2-1) took care of business against the Jets in Week 1 and the Patriots in Week 3, but I expect the Pittsburgh O-line to have a hard time keeping Aaron Rodgers upright against an excellent Vikings pass rush.
In Week 3, Minnesota (2-1) got a huge boost in the form of two defensive touchdowns, but the offense also played well against the Bengals. With left tackle Christian Darrisaw back in the lineup, WR Jordan Addison returning this Sunday from suspension and RB Jordan Mason emerging as the top back, Carson Wentz has a good enough supporting cast to keep the Vikes in contention for a while.
*Note: Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh is taking place at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland.
Saints at Bills (-16.5) — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bills -16.5
NFL point spreads don’t get much more lopsided than this one. The Saints (0-3) are coming off an embarrassing 44-13 loss to Seattle, and they’ve now scored 20 points or more just once in 10 games (nine starts) with Spencer Rattler under center.
The Bills (3-0) won six games by 20 points or more a year ago, and they already have a 30-10 win over the Jets this year. So, as hesitant as I would normally be to lay this many points, I’m going to trust Buffalo to get it done.
Remember, the Saints are 0-3 ATS this year, and they were 7-10 ATS in 2024, including 5-10 following a shocking 2-0 ATS start last fall.
Browns at Lions (-8.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Lions -8.5
If nothing else, this Cleveland D is good enough to prevent a lot of teams from covering vs. the Browns (just ask Green Bay).
This week in Detroit, however, I like the Lions defense to suffocate Joe Flacco and Co. and the balanced offense to score just enough for the favorites to win by a final score of something like 20-10.
Eagles (-3) at Buccaneers — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Eagles -3
It’s worth noting that the Bucs (2-1) are 2-1 against the Eagles in three meetings over the last two seasons, with a 33-16 win in Week 4 of the 2024 campaign.
The Bucs are frisky enough that I’d be tempted to take them at +3.5 or longer, but I expect the Eagles (3-0) to win by at least a field goal against a Tampa squad missing at least two starting O-linemen and multiple wide receivers.
Even if star tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin are active, as expected, on Sunday, this team will still be missing top WR Mike Evans, starting RT Luke Goedeke, starting RG Cody Mauch and key DL Calijah Kancey.
Chargers (-6) at Giants — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chargers -6
A switch at QB from Russell Wilson to Jaxson Dart hasn’t been confirmed by Brian Daboll, but it hasn’t been ruled out, either. My guess is this game will mark Dart’s NFL debut, and I expect that to spark the Giants (0-3) in the early going of this matchup.
But the Chargers (3-0) looked like a Super Bowl contender back in Week 1, and so far this season, we’ve seen little reason to doubt Herbert and Co. The L.A. O-line faces a tough test in the Meadowlands, but I expect A) the Chargers D to force Dart into a few mistakes and B) the road favorites to cover, even if New York starts hot.
UPDATE (Tuesday, 1:27 p.m. EDT): It is indeed going to be Jaxson Dart under center for the Giants this weekend, according to The Athletic’s Dianna Russini.
Panthers at Patriots (-5.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Panthers +5.5
Carolina (1-2) had its best defensive performance of the Dave Canales era last Sunday. Having already lost at home to the Raiders and Steelers, the Patriots (1-2) have not looked like a team that’s going to enjoy many comfortable victories this season.
A victory by the Panthers wouldn’t shock me, and at the very least, I expect them to keep this one close for 60 minutes.
Commanders (-2.5) at Falcons — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Commanders -2.5
No team in the entire league took a bigger step back from Week 2 to Week 3 than the Falcons (1-2). After whipping Minnesota 22-6 on the road in Week 2, the Falcons were shut out by the Panthers in Week 3.
I expect Atlanta to bounce back with a solid performance against the Commanders (2-1), but even with Jayden Daniels currently day-to-day, I’m not quite convinced the Falcons will pull off the upset at home.
Titans at Texans (-7) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Titans +7
Rookie QB Cam Ward and the Titans (0-3) have lost each of their three games this year by at least 8 points. Al three of those losses came against likely playoff teams, though. Right now, FanDuel lists the Broncos at -106 to make the playoffs, the Rams at -200 and the Colts at -340, FWIW.
An emphatic win by the desperate, winless Texans (0-3) wouldn’t shock me. For now, though, I’ll believe that the Houston offense — which is averaging a league-worst 12.7 points per game — is capable of blowing anyone out when I see it.
Colts at Rams (-3.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Colts +3.5
The Colts (3-0) continue to get little respect despite a perfect start and a league-leading point differential of plus-47.
Indianapolis might not be able to take down a Rams (2-1) team that should be 3-0 after blowing a big lead vs. the Eagles, but I do like the Colts to at least cover, if not pull off the upset, in a close one between two underrated teams.
Jaguars at 49ers (-3) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Jaguars +3
The Niners (3-0) have three wins by a combined 10 points. I expect another tight game for San Francisco this weekend. As if the injuries to Brock Purdy and George Kittle weren’t enough, the Niners also just lost star DE Nick Bosa for the rest of the year.
If Trevor Lawrence, who has already thrown four picks this year, can avoid turning the ball over, then Jacksonville (2-1) should be able to take this game down to the wire.
As of Tuesday afternoon, Purdy’s status for this game is unclear. If he’s starting, I’ll go with the Niners. But in a game that I expect to be decided by just a field goal, I’m comfortable backing the underdog — for now at least.
Bears (-1.5) at Raiders — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bears -1.5
The Bears (1-2) have had their moments so far this season, and they’re coming off easily the best game of Caleb Williams’ young career (19-of-28 for 298 yards, 4 TDs, 0 interceptions).
I’m not necessarily convinced that Chicago has it all figured out, but I expect this offense to outscore the one-dimensional Raiders (1-2), who are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry.
Ravens (-3) at Chiefs — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chiefs +3
Believe it or not, either the Ravens (1-2) or the Chiefs (1-2) are going to enter Week 5 with a 1-3 record.
At first glance, I’m tempted to take the Chiefs to at least cover at home, especially if they get WR Xavier Worthy back and/or the Ravens remain without DL Nnamdi Madubuike and LB Kyle Van Noy.
I might change my mind on this several times this week, but for now, let’s go with the home underdogs to at least cover in what should be a low-scoring clash between two increasingly desperate Super Bowl contenders.
Packers (-7) at Cowboys — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Pick: Packers -7
I’d probably take Green Bay (2-1) to win big even if CeeDee Lamb were in the lineup for the Cowboys (1-2).
With Lamb out of the picture, I like the Packers to win big after a shocking road loss to the Browns in Week 2.
Jets at Dolphins (-2.5) — Mon., 7:15 p.m. (ESPN)
Pick: Jets +2.5
As of right now, we don’t know whether the Jets (0-3) will have Justin Fields or Tyrod Taylor under center for this matchup. The Dolphins (0-3) are tempting given how rested they’ll be after playing on Thursday night in Week 3, but I’ll take NYJ head coach Aaron Glenn to get his first win at Miami’s expense.
Bengals at Broncos (-7) — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC)
Pick: Broncos -7
Coming off back-to-back nailbiting losses, I like the Broncos (1-2) at home on Monday Night Football against Cincinnati backup QB Jake Browning.
His first start in relief of Joe Burrow could not have gone worse, though Cincinnati’s three second-quarter fumbles — which gifted Minnesota a 34-3 halftime lead — were not his fault.
It almost goes without saying that if the Bengals (2-1) — who gained just 53 yards on 21 carries on Sunday — are unable to run the ball, they’re not going to win many games with Browning at QB.
That’s especially true for road games against quality defenses like Denver’s.
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