If Week 2 was injury carnage, then Week 3 was betting carnage: to anyone who had Rams +3.5 last week, I am truly, deeply sorry. No one deserves that kind of pain. Jordan Davis’ spread-breaking sprint to the house after a blocked field goal was one of just three game- or spread-altering blocked field goals in the matter of 10 minutes on Sunday afternoon. It was a true witching hour and a reminder of just how difficult it is to pick NFL games against the spread.
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There was no edge to be had on the Rams game, as there was nothing you could do to stop that Eagles cover from coming through—outside of a teaser. But you could have been on the right side of the Jets no matter what if you bet it early in the week, as the line dipped below a full touchdown by kickoff of Week 3. Let’s try and identify some good spots to bet early for Week 4.
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Bet it now: Seahawks +1.5
This short-week NFC West battle is taking place in Arizona, so I understand why the Cardinals are favored. I’m just not sure that’s correct, and I’m not sure it will end up being the case once Thursday Night Football kicks off. The Seahawks had a cruise control win on Sunday, throttling the Saints from jump street. And I don’t want to overreact to a stomping of a bad New Orleans football team, but the Seahawks defense, which was pretty depleted against Spencer Rattler and Co., might very well be elite. Sam Darnold has looked sharp so far this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is morphing into a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver, and Kenneth Walker’s running like a man possessed. The Cardinals have a little juice on offense, but James Conner is out for the season now, and Year 2 of the Kyler Murray-Marvin Harrison Jr. connection has not been very impressive. The passing defense is extremely banged up as well, and this looks like a great spot to grab Seattle now as a dog before the line moves.
Bet it now: Chargers -6
This line already moved to -6.5 in some spots, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw the Chargers favored by more than a touchdown come Sunday. Los Angeles profiles as a sure-fire top-10 team and might just be one of the four or five best squads in all of football. Justin Herbert is a legitimate MVP candidate as long as the Bolts keep winning and Jim Harbaugh continues to squeeze the most out of every piece on this roster (see: Quentin Johnston becoming a legitimate NFL receiver). The Giants looked completely hapless on offense Sunday, and Brian Daboll acknowledged they could move from Russell Wilson to Jaxson Dart as early as this weekend. I think that’s the right move, but I’m not sure this is the game where you want to do it. Jesse Minter’s defense has already given Patrick Mahomes and more veteran quarterbacks serious fits, so good luck to the rookie. I tend to think that move causes the line to slide past seven, so I’d be looking to bet the Chargers now.
Bet it now: Eagles -3
The Buccaneers have been an awesome story so far this season, with Baker Mayfield providing tons of drama late in games, leading three different game-winning scoring drives. He’s always been a gamer, but he’s showing he’s one of the most clutch players in football. But this Eagles team is a different beast than the first three tests Baker’s been handed. Philly showed what happens when it opens up the offense against the Rams on Sunday, and I’d expect more of that against a Bucs defense that is a pass funnel. Plus, Tampa has a rash of injuries. The Bucs are down several players on the offensive line, have seen key defensive players lost to injury, and just saw Mike Evans leave with a hamstring injury. The 3s are rapidly disappearing, and I think this is the last point of the week where we see them because the Eagles are so capable of snuffing out a team if they get a lead.
Bet it now: Jaxon Smith-Njigba anytime TD (+165)