APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts. there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI.
US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly; EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Future +0.1% after cash closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, Riksbank Announcement; NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB’s Cipollone, BoC’s Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany, US; Earnings from Micron, Kingfisher.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks closed higher on Monday, owing a large part of the gains to a strategic partnership announced between NVIDIA and OpenAI. The deal is to see NVDA invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI, deploying 10GW of AI centres, first to deploy in 2026. NVDA (+3.9%) saw upside on the news alongside a boost to the semiconductors and the tech sector, as well as equity indices. Meanwhile, Communications was the clear laggard amid lacklustre trade in Alphabet (GOOGL, -0.9%) and Meta (META, -1.7%). Macro updates were largely contained to central bank speakers.
SPX +0.44% at 6,694, NDX +0.55% at 24,761, DJI +0.14% at 46,382, RUT +0.59% at 2,463.
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NOTABLE HEADLINES
US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly
White House said talks are ongoing with Republican and Democratic Congress members on a potential government shutdown, according to Reuters.
US President Trump will meet with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer this week, according to Punchbowl News.
NOTABLE US EQUITY HEADLINES
OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI; OpenAI will deploy 10 gigawatts of AI data centres with NVIDIA, with the first gigawatt of systems to be deployed in 2026, and the companies said they look forward to finalising details in the coming weeks, according to an announcement.
NVIDIA (NVDA) and OpenAI deal doesn’t change any of OpenAI’s compute plans, including partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) or its efforts to build its own chips, according to Reuters, citing sources.
Disney (DIS) to return Kimmel show to the air on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported.
US President Trump said the FDA will warn physicians about a potential link between acetaminophen (Tylenol) use in pregnancy and autism risk; he advised pregnant women to avoid Tylenol and said do not take it. Trump also said MMR vaccines should be taken separately and that there is no reason for newborns to be given the Hepatitis B vaccine, according to Reuters.
FED COMMENTARY
Fed Governor Miran said Fed policy is ‘very restrictive’ and poses a risk to the Fed’s employment mandate. On interest rates, he said the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid-2% area, almost 2ppts below the current level, and that an immigration-policy-driven reduction in population growth also exerts downward pressure on the neutral rate. Click for full comments.
Fed’s Hammack (2025 voter) said the US is in a two-speed economy with lower-income households struggling. On rate cuts, she said last week’s cut emerged from the view that the balance of risks is changing, that the Fed is being challenged on both sides of its dual mandate, and that policymakers should be very cautious in removing policy restriction. She added she has one of the higher estimates of neutral, that policy is only modestly restrictive. On inflation, she said it is likely to continue rising, with pressures returning in both goods and services. On the labour market, she said the headline payrolls number indicates some softness, there are signs of fragility, and while the 4.3% unemployment rate is healthy, the jobs market remains low-hiring and low-firing as businesses are reluctant to hire; she noted openings remain robust but inflation is still high, expects unemployment to tick up, and warned that removing restriction too quickly could overheat the economy, while adding she is not hearing about significant layoffs, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Barkin (2027 voter) said a modest amount of tariff costs are paid by the consumer, adding that economic uncertainty is starting to lift but firms remain cautious to invest. On business confidence, he said optimism has ticked back up. On the labour market, he said low unemployment, wage gains and stock prices are all supporting consumer spending, expects the current low-hiring, low-firing jobs market to continue though it could break in either direction, and sees workforce growth this year close to flat. On inflation, he said wage pressures are coming down, according to Reuters.
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon, on Fed rate cuts, said further reductions will be difficult, via CNBC-TV18.
TRADE/TARIFFS
The White House said US President Trump will sign a TikTok deal later this week, according to Reuters.
India’s Foreign Minister said it was good to meet Secretary Rubio in New York, adding that the conversation covered a range of bilateral and international issues of current concern, and that Rubio agreed on the importance of sustained engagement to progress on priority areas, according to Reuters.
JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Dimon noted tariffs could be modestly inflationary but uncertain if the impact is temporary, via Times of India interview.
US lawmaker Adam Smith noted the intention to improve communication channels between China and the US.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts, whilst there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
ASX 200 eked gains, once again lifted by gold miners as the yellow metal printed fresh all-time highs, although upside was capped by a deterioration in Flash PMIs.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp eventually traded lower with catalysts sparse, but amid the hangover from the anticlimactic Trump-Xi call last week, whilst Hong Kong markets braced for the Super Typhoon, expected to be the worst since at least 2018.
KOSPI was again supported by the strong performance in its Tech sector after the NVIDIA/OpenAI announcement.
Nifty 50 trimmed its earlier mild gains with the index continuing to be hampered by the US H-1B visa update.
US equity futures resumed trade flat and continued to move sideways amid a lack of pertinent newsflow, with traders on the lookout for commentary from Fed Chair Powell later today, alongside remarks from Fed’s Bostic, Bowman, and US President Trump at the UN General Assembly.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Future +0.1% after cash closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.
FX
DXY traded uneventfully within a tight range between 97.198-97.374, with the index taking a breather following yesterday’s losses and amid a lack of pertinent drivers ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech and President Trump’s address at the UN General Assembly.
EUR/USD hovered on either side of the 1.1800 handle with macro newsflow sparse as traders looked ahead to Flash PMIs from Europe; next resistance seen at last Thursday’s peak at 1.1848.
GBP/USD experienced flat trade within a narrow range, with little to note ahead of UK Flash PMIs. BoE’s Chief Economist Pill is slated to speak later today (text to be published), with comments potentially of interest following his recent dissent on the APF decision.
USD/JPY fell under its 50 DMA (147.68) and dipped under yesterday’s low (147.66), but the pair remains within a narrow band amid a lack of noteworthy drivers and with Japanese participants away on the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
Antipodeans were eventually modestly softer amid weakness in Chinese markets. AUD/USD was also weighed on by a marked deterioration in Flash PMIs, albeit the data remained in expansion territory. NZD/USD was subdued, whilst Bloomberg sources suggested a new RBNZ Governor could be announced as soon as Wednesday.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1057 vs exp. 7.1066 (Prev. 7.1106)
RBI reportedly sold USD via state-run banks to support the rupee after hitting record lows, according to Reuters, citing traders
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures remained in a holding pattern amid a lack of drivers ahead of commentary from Fed Chair Powell, with cash trade overnight also lacking with Japanese players away on a domestic holiday.
Bund futures were similarly uneventful as participants brace for Flash PMIs from Europe, followed by a 2027 Schatz auction.
Australia sold AUD 300mln 4.75% 2054 AGB; b/c 3.35x (prev. 3.00x), average yield 5.0141% (prev. 5.0560%).
COMMODITIES
Crude futures saw subdued trade in APAC hours despite a lack of notable updates. Desks suggest crude prices continue to be weighed on by President Trump’s recent call for Russian oil purchases to cease, suggesting that the war would end “if the price of oil comes down”. Little movement in prices was seen on reports of drones disrupting operations in Oslo, Stockholm, and Copenhagen. Traders look ahead to the UN General Assembly for any notable updates on Russia and the Middle East, with US President Trump also due to give remarks. Eyes are on the E3/Iran meeting with regard to Iranian sanctions due to come into effect at the end of the month.
Spot gold extended on gains to a fresh all-time high, with momentum picking up after a breach of the psychological USD 3,750/oz to the upside. Desks cite the rise to Fed easing bets alongside a hot geopolitical landscape.
Copper futures were eventually subdued with prices capped by the underperformance across China, with 3M LME copper dipping back under the USD 10,000/t mark.
Trump administration officials are hoping to ink new oil and gas deals with other governments this week during Climate Week and the United Nations General Assembly, and White House official Agen pitched US energy sources as a diplomatic tool, Axios reported.
Chile’s development agency Corfo informed the comptroller office of contract changes to enable the Codelco-SQM lithium deal, according to Reuters.
Congo President noted intention to strengthen partnership with US, focusing on mining sector and infrastructure development but rules out auctioning mineral resources to US, according to Reuters.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin stabilised around USD 112,500 following pressure across the whole crypto complex yesterday.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese PM contender Takaichi proposed using tax revenues for tax cuts and spending measures to tackle inflation, but said she may consider issuing bonds if needed. She said policymakers should be mindful of the risk of causing a yield rise when guiding fiscal policy, but noted that when interest rates rise, so would interest from government assets, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Koizumi said Japan should use the expected increase in tax revenues and proceeds from expenditure cuts to fund spending for steps to combat the rising cost of living. He said Japan must be mindful of the need for fiscal discipline, but achieving solid economic growth is the basis for guiding sound fiscal policy, according to Reuters.
Japanese PM contender Hayashi said they must avoid issuing deficit-covering bonds to fund spending and keep sending signals to the market that Japan will maintain fiscal discipline, according to Reuters.
New Zealand is set to appoint its first female RBNZ Governor; announcement to come as soon as Wednesday, according to Bloomberg sources.
DATA RECAP
Australian S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Sep) 52.0 (Prev. 55.8)
Australian S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 51.6 (Prev. 53.0)
Australian S&P Global Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 52.1 (Prev. 55.5)
South Korean PPI Growth YY (Aug) 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%, Rev. 0.5%)
South Korean PPI Growth MM (Aug) -0.1% (Prev. 0.4%, Rev. 0.4%)
GEOPOLITICS
NATO-RUSSIA
The White House said US President Trump is aware of Russia’s New START Treaty offer, according to Reuters.
Sweden’s Defence Minister said “Sweden has the right to defend its airspace, with force if necessary”, according to Swedish press.
“Unidentified drones over Stockholm, the capital of Sweden”, according to unconfirmed local reports cited by geopolitical watchers on X.
Oslo Airport spokesperson confirmed airspace has been closed since midnight local time due to drone sightings, with all flights diverted to nearby airports, according to Reuters.
Copenhagen airport reopened following closure due to drone activity, according to Reuters.
MIDDLE EAST
EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday, according to WSJ’s Norman.
Iran’s Foreign Minister is meeting with IAEA chief Grossi in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, according to Reuters.
Trump to present Arab leaders with US principles for ending Gaza war, and the US seeks agreement from Arab and Muslim nations to deploy troops to Gaza, facilitating Israeli withdrawal and securing transition funding, according to Axios.
OTHERS
The White House said US President Trump will meet with the UN Secretary General and leaders of Ukraine, Argentina and the EU at the UN, and will also hold a multilateral meeting with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, the UAE and Jordan, according to Reuters.
Turkish President Erdogan said he will discuss F-35 negotiations with US President Trump during the upcoming meeting, via Fox News interview.
US, South Korean and Japanese foreign ministers jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea, according to a statement.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Nagel said the current EUR valuation does not worry him, according to Reuters.
UK Chancellor Reeves could raise GBP 6bln of income tax without harming employees by focusing increases on pensioners, landlords and the self-employed, according to the Resolution Foundation, via Bloomberg.
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