In a matchup like tonight’s Monday Night Football clash between the Lions and Ravens, it’s hard to know which of the many stars who will be in action to target for player prop bets.
Both Detroit and Baltimore share the wealth among a long list of explosive weapons, including RB Jahmyr Gibbs and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown for the Lions and QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry and WR Zay Flowers for the Ravens.
For tonight, though, we have our eye on Henry to get a ton of work after a quiet day in Week 2, and we also like Jackson to rip off at least one long run.
D. Henrys o18.5 Rush Yds (-102 at FD) — 1u
If would assume that A) Henry’s 11-carry afternoon last Sunday was an outlier and B) he has gotten close to 20 carries or more in just about every game as Raven, you would not be wrong.
Henry has opened the season with “just” 18 carries vs. Buffalo in Week 1 — which he made the most of, with 169 yards and two touchdowns — and 11 vs. Cleveland last Sunday, but he should be much busier tonight.
In 2024, Henry had at least 18 carries in 10 of 17 games, including nine games with at least 19 carries. But because of his relatively light workload so far this season, he’s in a great buy-low spot for tonight’s game.
More importantly, he’s facing a defense that is susceptible to the run with multiple starters (defensive end Marcus Davenport and DT Alim McNeill) sidelined and LB Jack Campbell questionable (ankle). Last week, the Lions blew out the Bears, but they gave up 63 yards on just 12 carries to D’Andre Swift. Detroit also Caleb Williams to pick up 27 yards on five rushing attempts, which does not bode well for tonight’s matchup.
It should be noted, however, that the Lions held up well against Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs in Week 1, giving up 66 yards on 19 carries.
Henry had 13 carries or fewer three times in ’24 (11 in Week 8, 13 in Week 11 and 13 in Week 1). Here’s how we did the week after:
11 carries in Week 8 vs. Cleveland –> 23 in Week 9 vs. Denver
13 carries in Week 1 vs. Kansas City –> 18 in Week 2 vs. Las Vegas
13 carries in Week 11 vs. Pittsburgh –> 24 in Week 12 vs. the Chargers
L. Jackson Long. Rush o.16.5 (-110 at DK) — 1u
No, we’re not exactly going out on a limb by predicting that Lamar Jackson will have a long run or two. We are, after all, talking about a player with a career average of 6.1 yards per carry. This year, he has picked up 83 yards on just 8 carries.
Before I go any further, I must admit that if he only has two rushing attempts (like he did vs. Cleveland last week), this probably won’t cash.
But I expect the Ravens to test a defense that has recently struggled to contain running quarterbacks — running QBs who are not nearly as elusive as Jackson, I should say.
A big reason Detroit lost at home to Washington in the playoffs last year was Jayden Daniels’ success on the ground (16 carries for 51 yards; long: 15 yards).
The Lions had similar struggles late last regular season, too, giving up long runs by QBs in four of their last five games of the regular season.
Jordan Love in Week 14 (4 carries for 23 yards; long: 14 yards), Josh Allen in Week 15 (11 carries for 68 yards; long: 21 yards), Caleb Williams in Week 16 (6 carries for 34 yards; long: 13 yards) and — to a lesser extent — Brock Purdy in Week 17 (3 carries for 12 yards; long: 9 yards) all made some plays with their legs vs. the Detroit defense.
That makes tonight’s game a great spot to target Jackson to get at least one 17-yard run — and we haven’t touched on how dangerous he is on designed runs, in addition to what he can do as a scrambler.
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