The San Diego Padres took care of their business on Sunday in Chicago. They held off the White Sox 3-2 in their final regular-season road game. That win was powered by Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 23rd home run and 150th of his career, and possibly Michael King’s strongest outing since he came off the injured list. Their win brought their magic number down to one.
So, for them, one more victory and October baseball is granted for sure. And this is the great news. But there is less comfortable news too. Well, it turns out that their shot at an NL West crown is all but gone. According to FanGraphs, the division title odds of the Padres are just 1.1%– and this number just feels like sand slipping through their fingers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, meanwhile, have a 98.9% probability of winning the division title. So, well, according to Fangraphs, the Padres have a 100% chance to be in the playoff berth, and that’s great. But that doesn’t mean all are sunflowers or that there are no glaring issues. In fact, The Athletic just pointed out one in their latest column.
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The principal concern seems to be with the rotation. Now, Pivetta has been the workhorse after coming to San Diego. He has put together a career year with a 2.81 ERA and a 3.49 FIP in 176 innings. But what about the rest? Michael King has still been steady with a 3.84 ERA, but Dylan Cease carries a 4.64 ERA, and Yu Darvish, usually a weapon, is at a 5.51 ERA. Hence, Athletic made a fair assessment: “How reliable will King be, fresh off the injured list? Can Cease throw strikes? Will Darvish get right in time for the wild-card round? Opposing lineups better get their runs in early against those guys, because once the Padres bullpen door swings open, it’s usually game over.”
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Now, to Michael King’s credit, he performed brilliantly on Sunday. He threw five shutout innings before handing the ball to Adrian Morejon, who stranded three runners to keep the lead. Robert Suarez nailed down his 40th save, too. After the game, King mentioned, “I felt good. Still, the timing of my mechanics is a little weird. But it’s definitely a much better step than the last one, so I was happy.” And indeed it was a huge improvement over his last outing, where he had allowed eight runs to the Mets—his career high!
Sure, everything is not pretty for the Padres, but it is enough. Around the league, the supposed contenders like the New York Mets and the Tigers are slipping away. It’s a reminder that style points don’t really count in September. The Padres are one win away, and as Tatis said, “We’re definitely not taking anybody for granted.”
The X-Factor in the San Diego Padres’ October push
The so-called sophomore slump was supposed to slow down Jackson Merrill, but well, he just flipped the script. Now his rookie year sure was the stuff of legends. At just 21 years old, he slashed. 292/.326/.500 with an .826 OPS, swatted 20-plus homers, and drove in 90 runs. Of course, the accolades and awards followed, from a Silver Slugger to an All-Star nod and second place in the Rookie of the Year voting. So Padres fans were thrilled that this was their next franchise cornerstone.
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Merill’s 2025 start was great too; he hit .378 with three homers in his first 10 games. Essentially, he picked up where he left off. But then came the hamstring strain. And suddenly, that momentum came to a standstill. And when Merrill returned, he wasn’t the same. Three trips to the IL had left him stranded, looking for some rhythm. His slugging percentage dropped more than 100 points from his rookie season. Of course, then the whispers about how his rookie season was a fluke started making the rounds. But lo and behold, things have changed.
Since the trade deadline, he has slugged .561 with an .865 OPS. He powered the Padres against the Dodgers in the NL West. In fact, on the Bret Boone podcast, Heyman had predicted, “Every challenge that Padres put on him, he has responded in the most positive way possible, so here’s his next chance…This is the guy they’re gonna ask to carry the load. Carry a big load.” And he is doing that. Now the division crown might be a long shot for San Diego, but he sure has positioned himself as the Padres’ x-factor. Now it’s time for him to show his worth in October baseball.